Hi Chris, chunyen,

I was thinking the same thing too, of course there's the "when hyper inflation or recession hit, gold and silver is safe haven" talk.

But recently, when we see margin call and panick selling, everyone seemed to park their funds in the currency instead of PM. it is like PM has become a stocks or shares of some kind. Of course, most likely these are the people who traded paper PM instead of physical, but if all paper trader sell of their gold and silver for currency, would gold and silver price drop like a rock as well?

Then the next statement to follow is, then BUY MORE!! So if these paper investor use their currency to buy physical, wouldn't they be buying at much lower rate than what we are buying now? maybe even 50% off?

And finally we should come to the final, currency/fiat money crash and those with physical is king.

These steps are details which some of us might have overlooked. As a programmer (used to be) we look at every single little steps before reaching the final objective of us running like fugitive from a collapse country.

Would anyone want to venture listing down in steps, what would happen from today onwards, USA default on debt payment, europe currency crisis exploded and EU break up. What happen to the stock market? US Dollar? and PM?

Thanks for sharing in advance, this should be challenging and helps those planning long term, what are we suppose to do from today.

chef

Actually I agree with what you say. I honestly believe property101 is right too, just that we are talking about different period of time, not the same period.

Let's start with the beginning, which is next year. We all know there will be a financial meltdown next year, no need to guess, most analyst and government already preparing for the worst, if europe fail, it will be worst than LEHMAN brothers crash.

Do we see gold and silver surging up? Many people think that gold and silver price will soar, and many people also think that the price of silver and gold will drop. 2 school of thought. Which will happen? I'm sure many of us would like to know, as this could be the chance to buy more, or liquidate some and convert them to real estate or your dream car.

I know... in the end, we will reach a period where silver and gold may become the currency for trading. But this will happen only if everyone accept PM as the medium for trade. A few thousand years ago, we did not use gold as currency, we used salt and spice for paying tax.

The video with regards to africa was because the world still accept currency and gold as medium, did they mentioned they accept silver as payment? I think not, anyone caught a glimpse of a mention of silver? Maybe I missed it.


Again, don't get me wrong, I have invested heavily in silver, I know what silver is worth, so I am NOT against buying silver. I just want to know, if the world currency crash, gold will be accepted as payment I'm sure, silver coin, yes I think so too, as it looks like money to most people, but silver bar, i guess only industrial company who are still consuming silver will buy, or those minting company will buy and mint into coin to be re-used. I do see myself accepting gold as payment for food I grow, silver coin may worth very very little, silver bar, if I throw one on the road today, I don't think people will even pick it up.

chef

PS Just what I think, not what I predict..

Hi taurus,

your post is too long, and I don't want to limit this forum to be a discussion between you and me only. please PM me if you want to discuss gold.

This forum can't be only for patting everyone back and say it is 100% to invest silver. Occasionally we have to question ourselves, what we are doing is right or wrong.

Let's keep public posting (between us) to minimal, start a blog like goldchan or webpage like property101, they are doing it right for everyone.

chef

Hi kokolat,

Well, I used to start off with bars too, after a while, you will want to see more design, and realised that selling coins in "good economy" is more profitable than bars. And also, coins appreciate in value every year (not all coins though, please research the type of coins carefully)

Example :

1oz Pamp suisse silver bar, will forever follow spot price PLUS premium

1oz kookaburra, past year, will depend on mintage and availability of the coins, the premium almost never got affected by spot price.


Anyway, it's a phase we go thru, many silver stacker I know started off with silver bar (strong believer, told me they will NEVER buy coins), because of the low premium, then after they had accumulate certain amount, they moved on to coins. No convincing required, BUT honestly, it does not happen to everyone.

chef

Well, no one should hate you for sharing your perspective and experience, this is a forum, we swap war stories.

I bought from 1stopgold too, although no extremely bad experience with them, I just think they are not as professional in dealing with us, I guess they need to improve on their customer service. If they replaced the current staff and improved, I will let you know

But I have yet to purchase from mysmartgold yet, as you recommended, I really think I should but I guess will only be my next trip up to KL.

Anyway, I also buy the lowest premium bar if possible, for coins, get the ones with high demand like panda or kooks.

chef

This post has been edited by chef: Nov 29 2011, 06:33 PM

Wow, that says a lot when you (or anyone) bothered to send a complimentary sms.

The problem is they are always out of 50g gold bar. I think I will settle for 20g and try his service at least once. It should be a good experience.

chef

Hey marcus, and all..

I have been throwing this idea, but the venue is a problem.

Can't be too open, yet not too many people should know of the meeting, I'm willing to sponsor drinks and snacks, but table, place and other logistical issue is a problem.

Anyway, too many of us meet we may end up having nothing much to say without a theme. So I guess the best time to meet will be the money and coin fair, I remember doing the registration for it in KL one of the year, so at least we can go there, view, get a meeting room for SILVER discussion, some auction and selling of special deals. I'm sure it will be a success.

No restriction, even if you only have 1 bar or coins, you are still welcome as a potential customer also right? so no need to feel shy about attending.

Can we all help to look out for such a related event and we see if we can get a gathering going.

chef

Thanks guys,

while searching, found this up coming event in singapore, maybe we can meet there but without our collection of coins or bars of course. since bringing it to singapore will be a hassle.

Or if some of you are taking up a booth to sell your coins and bars, we can ALL squeeze into that booth and everyone will be curious why that booth so many people!! ha ha....

http://sgcoinfair.com/

Anyway, if we have not meet up by this date, let's make a point to visit this fair yeah? I'll buy lunch for all if we meet on the same date and time.

chef

Hi chunyen, property,

it's o.k. I will view on your behalf.

Come back and report to you guys what I find there yeah? I'm sure to meet some silver stackers there, and some new and rare product, and more suppliers too. will upload some brochures and pictures if I can too.

chef

Hi,

Sad to say, it's true. I think the post was from goldchan and a few others. I'm also one who always have problem with custom as they tax WHATEVER they want. Unless you have time to go and sit down, drink coffee and explain to them why they should not tax you.

I am going to pay the custom in JB a visit on friday, to settle issue that is related to tax also, and the item (not related to silver or gold) is also not taxable, but they just slap a tax on it and HOPE that I will not go and ask them for discount or waive the tax.

The lesson to learn for everyone, even though something might be stated in the law that it is not taxable, every custom in the world has the right to put a tax on it, base on whatever HS code they want, then it's up to business people like us to waste our time and go talk to them.

You are going thru what many of us has gone thru in the past month, GOLDCHAN has been going thru this for the past year, he has got LOADS of experience. Personally, I would still try to buy the silver bar and see what happen. but some nice bars which is not too common, so you can easily sell them later. But you may end up buying at high price than what people are selling here (SLS)

For me? I have bought from many suppliers, been thru many lousy experience with them since august 2011, and now, I am settling down to buy bars from local. so that should tell you something. But I have matured to coins (not rounds) and finally, upgrading to gold now.

chef

Ha ha,

there are small gold bars around too, 1gram cost RM 208 i think. still expensive, even to me...

Anyway, Of all the posting, I think about 8 out of 10 have no problem importing silver bars from overseas, so you are likely to get away with it, if not, well, you can always talk your way out of it, bring along a HS code book, point to them a few pages written in english and give them a lesson in english, they will not want to waste time with you and just let you go tax free...

Don't just give up, try buying some bars, I do suggest one bar which I always wanted to buy, kitco 1oz silver bar, which is 9999 pure. So if you bring that in, I will buy some from you, 10 at least. But understand that you need to purchase from overseas supplier at least USD 300 to USD 1,500 per order, plus shipping charges, delay and the worry that the goods may not arrive, or they ship you the different item instead of what you ordered. Which happened to me in my short 4 months life as a silver investor, all of the above.

Once you import a few times, then you will become sifu here and grumble to us all you want about the lousy custom officer with different standard handling different packages.

chef

Hey you're right!!! Their price for 10oz is great. For pamp suisse, 1stopgold is still cheaper. If you are buying the twin tower, please take some pictures and show us. Just hope that the silver bar is pure. I may buy one for keepsake. It's the only cheap item in their website.

Anyway, kitco bar has low premium, almost as cheap as the cheapest bar around, they are not branded like pamp, and they are among the most beautiful one around. 50g bar I also have, but it will not be easy to sell in malaysia I think, but do research a little more, the company you can buy from overseas are all listed in the page 1 of this forum, I think it's in my posting, not many, but the few famous one everyone buy from, like apmex, gainsville, perthmint etc...

Enjoy your research. I did.

chef

Thanks for the link, didn't know there's such a website.

will go to big brother and look around now.

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Added on December 1, 2011, 7:46 pmWah!! tai ko tai...

you been in silver and gold since so long ago, damn, I should have known about it earlier and now, would be swimming in gold pool. I think the important point to note here is what I was trying to say too. I want to be in both boat as well, it's about getting into the exciting action, not the greed of making more money.


I made a small little profit just as a test, bought a small little gold bar when it was USD 1,680 spot rate. sold it off easily and made about 5% - 8% today, spot price USD 1,756. I have not delivered but deposit paid. (seller and buyer is different, but quite easy to find buyer)


On the other hand, I bought a bar of silver at spot rate of about USD 31, (I think bought at RM 120) and now at current silver spot price USD 33.17, what's the selling price in SLS? RM 118 (I just checked). No way to make a profit even with the price moving 8% up.


I'm not trying to mislead newbie, who needs hand holding here, I think many newbies here already proven they can think and research and found the type of bars and size they want. I am just trying to say what I think, is all. share experience, facts, and perspective. So far I have not gun down anyone's point of view, and I hope nobody here will do that, so as to promote sharing and brainstorming of ideas, freedom of thoughts. It's tiring enough at the office with all the politics, we all just want a peaceful place to relax and chat. cool?

chef

PEACE....

This post has been edited by chef: Dec 1 2011, 07:46 PM

Very good article. and most of the bars we already know.

Then there are the not so famous bars. Many people here will tell you, go in with an exit strategy. Simply put, if you know that your bars will be easily sold in the future when you want to, you can safely buy them. Famous bar like englehard has a high premium, and not many people will pay for them since they are just bars. So if you buy all these pamp suisse and englehard bars, you might have problem selling them off due to high premium.

On the other hand, there will be silver stackers here telling you pamp suisse are easy to sell.

So the most important thing is to find your way in the myriad of silver bullions, rounds and coins, find your supplier, your seller, then decide on what you should be investing in.

Good luck on your hunt, sometimes, the fun is getting there, not the destination itself.

chef

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Added on December 2, 2011, 4:12 pmHi Taurus,

Would hope that you can refrain from using too much words like "crap" and "BS", if i think it is related to what a cow passed on when they roam around grassland. So far, the only other person who uses language like this is no longer with us in the forum, or maybe just lurking around. I haven't been using it and I don't see myself lowering to that level, try as I might.

Come on, challenges are fun, we had all the fun at page 1 of this forum, and I was one of the closes one to guess the price. many people joined in and we had community spirit.

Facts is nothing but an article many people think is right. Just like when the earth was flat, anyone who says earth is round was executed. without imagination and some experiment, we will still be afraid to fall off at the end of the world.

Anyway, if you see PM (precious Metal) being mentioned here in this forum, it does refer to gold and silver and platinum and many more, and if you do a check, you would probably see many reference to PM instead of just silver. So either you should tell everyone who wants to even mentioned gold to go somewhere else, and tell everyone NOT to mention gold is as good an investment as silver, well, being a dictator to want to tell everyone here what to do, what to say and what not to say, don't say without proof, don't talk nonsense, don't ask nonsense. Then you will have a very quiet forum here...

And I refuse to be pushed around by anyone who wants to tell me to do this and that, bring that back to your house or office, join a forum and welcome new thoughts or re-visiting of old ones. It's when ideas are generated.

chef

PS I'm sure there must be some reason why you keep telling everyone 1oz silver bar is the way to go, the ONLY way to go, for all starter and newbies... just can't figure out why though..

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Added on December 2, 2011, 4:34 pmHi cruzzie, big wolf,

Actually I understand, the recent influx of people joining in silver investment, and trying to make a quick buck and leaving is just making it not worth the short term investment. So the important words here is "not good for short term investment" You would also know that I had bought lots of silver bars, rounds and coins for long term hedging against inflation.

I understand these perfectly, we were in this at the same time and I still had this believe, it's just that someone assume that I do not and trying to convince me something which I already know. I'm just sharing my experience, didn't really expect everyone to share my point of view, but respect my posting as it is, a post to encourage discussion.

In fact, I was just asking big wolf if he can sell more pamp dragon to me if he has any spare. So I want to stress again, you two are right, and I am right too, that silver is very cheap to buy now, and it will appreciate in price, hopefully narrow the ratio and silver gets higher returns. No doubt about it. I was just discussing the merit of gold investment as compared to silver, is all.

From a 3rd party point of view,
1) Do I sound like I am promoting to newbie not to buy silver, just buy gold?
2) Am I trying to mislead newbies with my posting? or just stating my point of view.
3) My post sounds more like a discussion or more like gospel/preaching?
4) Or did I sound unreasonable in any of my posting?
5) That my post are filled with low level words like "crap", "BS" and all those uncouth words, that we deserve to read these from another post?

It would be great for me to know the answers to the above, as I would like to learn and correct myself if I am acting badly and might have forgotten to write properly or reasonably.

Thanks, feel free to post or PM me, wouldn't want to put you guys in the spot light.

chef

PS Apologise to the rest of the forumner, this was meant to be offline, not public posting, but if you really read between the lines and ignore the unwanted words, you might get a glimpse of a discussion about is GOLD or SILVER a better investment at times like these. so it is still a relevant read.




This post has been edited by chef: Dec 2 2011, 04:34 PM

Well,

I guess you really do not give credit to expert in malaysia or asia PM expert. You do know that the largest consumer of gold (big brother of PM) is in india? and by the way, china is over taking everyone as the world largest consumer of all PM. US guru? well, like I said, what makes the thing they say as facts? Like quackpack said, property boom in singapore or US, doesn't affect malaysia. Silver price goes up USD 5 per oz, US unemployment rate improved, doesn't make a coin size dent in ASIA.

So I would say ASIA's point of view IS more important. If you are talking about old timer who knows more, well, looking small, GOLDCHAN is among on of the taikor here who has been in this for years, and prophetjul is equally long, so i guess their views are equally important.

I do hope you do not assume all the readers here are not using their brains, and to assume that having 43 years of trading experience in some other product might not make you instant expert in something else, I believe all of us learn till we are old, and not claim EXPERT, be humble and you get to learn more. I'm sure not many people around you will give advice like that to you, since you keep using the old, experience, know more reason to prevent learning of even more useful info.

Like cruzzie and I said, everyone makes their own decision, let them be, we are not newbies, let us decide what we want to do with our funds, why get upset when people do not listen to what you have to say? I mean, will you pay for our losses if we just follow your every advice? I'm sure if you have "guarranteed returns, guarranteed capital, no risk" scheme like those banks funds, we will all rush in and join your band wagon. Otherwise...

I know someone who googles for information for 8 years, but had no practical experience or expertise in the real thing compared to those who has been in the market for 2 years. you google silver is good! but you wouldn't google silver is bad! so all 800 hours of search is just to substantiate your train of thoughts. spend another 1,000 hours, it'll still be wasted if you are not looking at the right place. (Ha ha....hey everyone, don't shoot me, I didn't mean silver is bad, it was just an example, really...)

I used to trade in coffee beans and japanese cocoon, but I will not claim I know silver and gold after only 4 months, live is a on going learning process, do not let your age stop you from opening your mind.

chef

PS a reminder, let's not use dirty words or calling people brainless or name calling, civilized discussion only.

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Added on December 3, 2011, 10:47 amHa ha,

Great job, I WAS trying to relax, spend free time coming in and join some discussion and share beautiful pictures of silver.

Hey, nice bars, but the premium is too high, I was poisoned by you when you show the 9 colored coin set, now I'm going to RESIST!! ha ha... by the way, how much is it? you selling?? ARGH!! ...

chef

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Added on December 3, 2011, 10:55 amHi quackpack,

That was what I was started out as saying, that because of liquidity problem of silver bars in mlaaysia, I'm thinking of moving to gold, and I was right. (To be fair, for the current day, time and period) malaysia accept gold more readily than silver. I do see silver jumps higher and faster than gold because of the potential, but as most investor will tell you, buy some stock for long term gain, buy some for medium returns, and the rest for quick trading. Gold is for quick trading, 1oz silver bar is for quick trading (low margin and low volume). I think it's called spreading your investment portfolio, but this is the funds you set aside for PM, then you should have some set aside for property, and some for currency or shares...

Anyone disagree?

chef

This post has been edited by chef: Dec 3 2011, 10:55 AM

Hmm... 3 books written by locals on silver alone, wonder what they write about. anyone care to get hold of it and summarize for us?

I sort of believe that, silver now is like APPLE 8 or 10 years ago. When anyone mentioned APPLE, every IT people knows it is good for desktop publishing and designing great graphics and for photo editing, but nothing else about it, looks like it is forever trailing behind the big brother windows or INTEL. And that's years ago.

How many of us have seen Iphone 1 or 2? it was in the market, but not so famous.

Now, APPLE name is in such great demand, with all other giant phone maker falling behind, APPLE had storm the world with their IPHONE and IPAD and IPOD. So that is what I had hoped for with silver, that one day it will shine.

Anyone seen a motorla mobile phone recently? 8 years ago, it was struggling, now? still struggling. Am I making a fair comparison? most likely no, but 1 thing I know, the future is not cast in stone,

Silver may one day flourish, when? not sure. How much it will gain? don't know. Calculated estimate? possible. But no guru can tell you the exact price it will be in exactly 1 years time. But what the law of averaging is trying to teach you is, that you must start now, and constantly buy, jump on the band wagon and get a piece of the action, be it bars or coins or grains, but once on it, know your set target price and be ready to sell (at least a part of it, not necessary all) when it hit your objective. It doesn't teach you to buy all now or buy later, expect it to reach a high point and sell all you have.

Am I right? or is my simple summary of "law of averaging" for this instant is wrong, feel free to comment.

chef

Hi guys,

Really sorry about it, I did want to move this to PM or outside, and tried. I'm glad that it's settled though.. I will accept the request as well. As long as there is no sniping

Hey property, do read up on the book and let us know the content yeah?

I believe and had seen video of mike maloney's explanation, would be good to hear someone else's for a change. Thanks in advance.

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Added on December 4, 2011, 11:44 amHey basist, do keep feeding some info from the book. I have old man eyes already, else I used to read every night.

Would still like to know what's in the book though.. Thanks.

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Added on December 4, 2011, 11:47 amHey no problem.

I'll do what I can to jump start, I think you are the 4th person who is the first time buyer I am meeting, the important thing is to start even with 1 bar or coin, but start now.

RM 115 is a great deal! no way anyone can refute that, but just a reminder, buy with excess cash, not with money you need next month or next year.

chef

This post has been edited by chef: Dec 4 2011, 11:52 AM

Yeah, no thanks to those stupid market expert who keeps saying silver will still hit USD 50 and gold USD 2,000 by end of the year. But well, I guess anything is still possible. free market jumps and fall as they like, if we are smart enough to predict accurately, we will be billionaire and running for finanace minister position.

Given the short few weeks left, I guess by 31 DEC 2011, silver price will hover around USD 40 per oz. And Gold price will be USD 1,850 per oz. Best case scenario.

Anyone want to offer a contest this time?

chef

I have an empty tube for the maples. most normal people will sell at how much? I'll give it to you for free la, since I'm not using it.

But if you want to put ASE in it, cannot, cause the size is different.

chef

This post has been edited by chef: Dec 6 2011, 09:09 AM

Hi Kei18Kun, and all newbies.

Most usual case, it's definitely NOT o.k. to back out from a deal. That's why most buyers and seller will want a deposit or full payment in advance by bank transfer or something before meeting up to COD.

Imagine the scenario below :
You buy silver bar at RM 120, 1 pc. (Spot price USD 32.00)
Then spot price tumble to USD 15.00 over night
You would probably back out because you didn't pay anything yet.
Look for another seller and buy the silver at RM 60 or less. Makes business sense but spoil your name and reputation.

NEXT
You buy silver bar at RM 120, 1pc. (Spot price USD 32.00)
Then spot price goes up to USD 60.00 over night.
Seller back out because he can sell his bar at RM 280 or more. Makes business since again, but spoil his name and reputation.

"Don't treat people in any way you wouldn't want to be treated back in return"


This happened here a few times many months ago when the spot price spikes or tumble, so the usual practice now is to accept a deposit large enough for both side not to back out.

Having said that, there are those on gentlemen's agreement by verbal sales between long time friends, who value the friendship over the small dollar value gain.

And lastly, the verbal agreement between the seller and a new friend on purchase without deposit because they have not met yet, but usually it's on a very small scale.

Is my summary right guys?


I happened to have a few dealings which I allow the buyer to back out due to some unforseen circumstances. What's the point of winning the deal but loosing a friend

But personally, I never back out of any deal before in my life once I made the promise, and I had known quite many of the people here are as honourable too.

chef

PS The best time to know is when real crisis happen. Even as seen in the movies, honour fly out the window and becomes worthless when life is at stake.

This post has been edited by chef: Dec 6 2011, 09:07 AM