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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V98, Celebrating KLCI breach 13xx point

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cherroy
post Sep 19 2011, 04:51 PM

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QUOTE(ngaisteve1 @ Sep 19 2011, 04:43 PM)
Can lower cut losses %, say 5%-7%.

Cannot be buy 10/10 stocks also a loser stocks kua  biggrin.gif

Cut-losses has 'saved' me and my capital  nod.gif 

If I didn't cut losses quick, much capital trap inside now. But if cut losses, we can protect the capital first and after the storm has faded, then can buy back lower later.

But if losses too deep say 20% or more, then I guess no point cutting lioa.
*
In a bear market, you can have buy 10/10 stocks also loser stock one. tongue.gif
Don't believe, try it yourself, or someone can share this experience. biggrin.gif

Talk is easy, real trade and practically time, thing is always not happening as your script one.

Take for eg.
Sime.
in 3 trading day, plunged more than 10% already. How?

5-7% is very easy to achieve one, one may forever cut loss, cut loss, until cut everything. laugh.gif
cherroy
post Sep 19 2011, 04:57 PM

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Some may say, don't play in bear market.
But when you know it is a bull market time, often it is too late.

Every technical rebound can mean a baby bull trend is born.

No one know it is an uptrend or technical rebound, until it is too late.

For eg. recently,
DJ has a nice surge from below 11000, to 11500, it is a uptrend, or start of uptrend?
or it is a technical rebound, before dipping back or even lower?

You want to see you a stock price which is RM2.00, but you bought at RM0.80 or even lower, then it is only achievable when you bought the stock in a bear market.

How people can buy PBB at RM0.88?
How people can buy Genting during 2008 at RM3.xx or Rm4.xx?

All comes from a down trend market, bear market.
cherroy
post Sep 19 2011, 05:23 PM

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QUOTE(gogo2 @ Sep 19 2011, 04:59 PM)
bro cherroy.. I'm bottom fishing also... so when the sifu said like that, I become scared because it seems my tactic of bottom fishing is wrong...

anyway, hopefully you're right...
*
Bottom fishing only right, if you fish the right fish or right fish pond, aka your targeted stock is right (fundamental good, solid) in the first place.

Bottom fishing can lead one lose pant one, if you fish at rubbish pond.

In a stock market exchange, you can have 1000 stocks, but the right fish can mean just a couple of ten or hundred stocks only.
cherroy
post Sep 19 2011, 10:23 PM

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QUOTE(ham_revilo @ Sep 19 2011, 08:47 PM)
btw, just curious here.

what happen if they (ECB, IMF, and others) dont lend money to greece? greece goes default right?

so what will happen to euro if greece goes default?

it affects everyone right? so in a way, they dont have much to choose from but to keep lending to greece right?

correct me if im wrong coz im not really a economic/financial guy smile.gif
*
Greece default, never mind, bond holder lose out only.

Who are the bond holders?
Banks.
Banks losing big money, and affect its liquidity and credibility and confidence is the biggest nightmare of economy.
Economy cannot work without banks.

QUOTE(ham_revilo @ Sep 19 2011, 08:50 PM)
so if european banks kena, does it directly affect asian & US banks/economy?

or could it be just purely fear that drive everyone to sell and hide in the bunker?
*
Now, you see why I said before, we are seeing the disadvantage of globalisation, everything become inter-related.
US banks can lend money to European banks. Money can be transferred from Euro to US and vice versa with a click of mouse.
Globalisation, means you die, I also suffer, everyone is inter-related.
Somebody did wrong thing, but you still need to bare the consequence, just the degree more and less.

See how US QE1+2 aftermath, Asian countries across generally are struggling to contain the inflation pressure?
Asian countries did nothing wrong, they are not venturing into RE bubble, they are not venturing into risky derivatives, exotic derivatives, they just work hard and save enough money for themselves. But we see foods price sky-rocketing, house price shoot to the moon, and many ordinary worker class are not able, even servicing a loan.

If not globalisation, it is your matter, the degree of affect is not as great now.

Don't get me wrong, I am not against globalisation, it has vast advantage, but it is not flawless.
cherroy
post Sep 20 2011, 12:15 AM

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QUOTE(lch78 @ Sep 19 2011, 11:36 PM)
Well, it is nice to see KLCI rallied from 900+ to 1500+, thanks to QE1+2.  biggrin.gif  Those who makes money and over-leverage will die, but those who make money and keep will survive..  nod.gif

I think Greece defaulting is just a matter of time. Germany already prepares for it, LKY already said something about it. Then the rest of the news we read, are just like lips service to buy time only for dunno what or who.. The question is whether this Greece defaults will cause even greater effect across the world or specifically US. If it does, then a prolong recession is a sure thing.. If it can be contained within Euro countries, then the effect will go away quicker.

One thing I don't understand is why FF keep on selling down KLCI and Asia? Euro is sick at the moment, and US is in bad shape still. Where the money can go?? There are literally trillions of dollars floating around after QE... Cannot be everything inject into gold..  hmm.gif
*
There are plenty of cash sitting at sideline.

Just ask back yourself a quesiton.
When you know, market may turn ugly, may go down further due to potential defaulting happening, what will you do as fund managers?
1. Sell a portion and keep in cash.
2. Lock in profit (there are plenty of profit can be locked in for a lot of people).
3. Reduce exposure.

Do you know, money can evaporise when market goes down?
Trillions of money in paper suddenly disappear in the thin air.
Lot of money flock to treasuries, ain't we see 10 years plummeting to below 2%, from 3.x%?

If US and Euro economy turn ugly, Asia or Malaysia won't spare from it.
Just degree of effect is more and less.
See how GDP growth slowdown across Asia, when US and Europe start to register stalling growth figure.
cherroy
post Sep 20 2011, 03:05 PM

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QUOTE(othme @ Sep 20 2011, 03:01 PM)
BAT becomes <RM 10.  brows.gif
Maxis becomes penny stock  tongue.gif
*
Can, after share split 1:10.... whistling.gif
cherroy
post Sep 20 2011, 04:04 PM

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QUOTE(othme @ Sep 20 2011, 03:51 PM)
Actually it's quite simple. Before you started investing stock market, what made you want to invest instead of buying Macbook.
I believe most of us think...ok

1. Buy Macbook. Let's say Rm 8k. After 4-5 yrs, model obsoleted. Your hand gatal and want to change a new one. Sell as 2nd hand if u r lucky at Rm1k. You  
    lost Rm7k.

2. Buy stock. U hv Rm8k. U got lucky, price increase. Ur Rm8k might increase to Rm16k. Yahoo. Worst case scenario, market drop like now. U lost 50%
capital, left only Rm4k. U r swearing that u shud hv bought Macbook but u still hv Rm4k.

So...Investing in stock, at least u hv chance to win. Buy Macbook, sure rugi  tongue.gif
*
I got a win-win solution.

Use 2k to buy Dell, good enough to use.

The rest 6k buying 6% dividend stocks.

Got laptop, Happy.
While everyday wake up time, you see Rm1 pop up in your eye. Happy.
rclxms.gif

This post has been edited by cherroy: Sep 20 2011, 04:05 PM
cherroy
post Sep 20 2011, 04:13 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Sep 20 2011, 04:09 PM)
Youngsters nowadays go after branding. whistling.gif

Spend first, invest later .. what is invest??

p/s: I don't own a laptop, I pun tarak iPad lo.
*
No Ipad, but range of LV bag, Coach... tongue.gif


cherroy
post Sep 21 2011, 11:33 AM

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There is high possibility, that US economy may repeat Japan footstep.

A lot of identical matter, QE, super low interest rate, stimulus, but with stalling economy.
cherroy
post Sep 22 2011, 02:40 PM

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QUOTE(ken_ng @ Sep 22 2011, 02:36 PM)
can i ask a question here?

since we always said that "Don't lose the capital", so shd we cash out to preserve our capital instead of letting it decreases gradually. I know some our our sifus/sijies here are just lossing the profits which they earn previously. But i'm referring to the condition where i'm not lossing the profit but i'm losing my capital.

thank you for any advice, recommendation and suggestions.
*
The term "don't lose the capital" /= cut loss, nor imply must cut or not cut loss.

The term of "don't lose the capital" means that you must buy the stock that highly won't result you 'to lose capital'.

You misinterpret wrongly already. smile.gif


cherroy
post Sep 22 2011, 02:41 PM

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QUOTE(Myoswee @ Sep 22 2011, 02:37 PM)
Thats the feeling a lot of investor getting now

Warm water boil frog

Now still no rasa

Later  brows.gif
*
You should be the person wait for the cooked frog and served to you.
Not the frog... laugh.gif

This post has been edited by cherroy: Sep 22 2011, 02:41 PM
cherroy
post Sep 22 2011, 02:47 PM

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QUOTE(ken_ng @ Sep 22 2011, 02:46 PM)
ic...thank you bro cherroy for enlightening. but i'm still wondering shd i cut loss. coz if i dont cut loss and the market continue to become reder, then all my capital gone dy...
*
The most important is your underlying stock quality and ability to pay you handsome dividend, which I like old man repeating this same advice.

cherroy
post Sep 22 2011, 02:48 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Sep 22 2011, 02:41 PM)
Cherroy, where is your shopping cart?
*
Cart lock in locker room, only basket available. tongue.gif
cherroy
post Sep 22 2011, 03:34 PM

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QUOTE(ngaisteve1 @ Sep 22 2011, 03:30 PM)
Looks like consumer stocks also difficult to tahan the storm.

Got only 57 gain counter.
*
When market down, all go down one, this is always the same and repeating.


cherroy
post Sep 22 2011, 03:35 PM

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I am a bit surprise Maybank is holding up so well.

cherroy
post Sep 22 2011, 03:40 PM

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QUOTE(ken_ng @ Sep 22 2011, 03:34 PM)
may i ask is there another meeting for US tonight?
*
Fed just announced operation twist last night, then market also "twist"... laugh.gif
cherroy
post Sep 22 2011, 03:42 PM

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QUOTE(ngaisteve1 @ Sep 22 2011, 03:37 PM)
so no point going in even defensive (ie consumer) stock?
*
But consumer stock highly can still pay you the dividend, and can come back when economy back to good time.
But others don't know stocks, don't know liao... tongue.gif
or even don't know go to where...

This post has been edited by cherroy: Sep 22 2011, 03:43 PM
cherroy
post Sep 22 2011, 03:46 PM

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QUOTE(gogo2 @ Sep 22 2011, 03:41 PM)
Do you think economy suddenly pick up, Greece problem solve, US no more problem... blah3 ???

kakakaka...

this drop will continue for a very long time .....kakakakaka
*
Greece problem is easy to solve one.
1. Defaulted
2. Out of Euro, has own currency.
3. Own currency depreciate significantly, boost competitiveness and tourism exploding due to depreciated currency and cheap goods there, boost the rest sector, start climbing back up.
cherroy
post Sep 22 2011, 04:38 PM

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QUOTE(PlayMaker` @ Sep 22 2011, 04:36 PM)
Is today's lowest the lowest? Guess nobody will know in such market condition
*
You will be the next billionaire if you know today is the lowest. rclxms.gif
cherroy
post Sep 23 2011, 06:36 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Sep 23 2011, 05:06 AM)
Seriously, I don't understand why investors don't like Fed's strategy.
1. Everyone scares of inflation, so no QE. Isn't that good?
2. QE is to lower US debt interest rate+lower USD value to increase market competitiveness. Now, Fed is just doing that without too aggressively lower USD value, so that inflation won't kick in too fierce. Isn't that good?
3. Economy has to cure itself slowly. Now, Fed is just doing that. Isn't that good?
4. Job creation policy should be from Obama, not Fed. So why bother on this topic after Fed meeting?

Investors' mind are now just so contradicting. Do they really know what they want? Actually, what do they want?
yawn.gif
*
Previously, whenever the market is crying, there is sweet given.
Now said no sweet is given, even before market start to cry, so now crying.... laugh.gif
As some even view, run out of sweet already, cry even more.

Addicted to sweet already.


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