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 US stock discussion v4, Bulls-Bears HUAT AH!! Pigs get slaughter

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danmooncake
post Jun 21 2013, 11:28 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 21 2013, 11:18 PM)
A little bear rest? Maybe close slightly red. Next week continue bear ride?  biggrin.gif
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Already red here.. all being sold into the gap up open. Everybody wants their money back.
I'll continue to staying on the bear side trade for every pop for now and I'll close some bear positions at close for the weekend to cash out.

Good for bears to come back but it will be fast and short here unless SP500 breaks below 200ma, then it is going to be a few months of play time.


danmooncake
post Jun 24 2013, 12:34 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 22 2013, 04:16 AM)
A writing on Apple:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1515082-st...es?source=yahoo

It said, "What's more compelling is that the bonds it recently issued become less valuable as rates increase, allowing Apple to book an accounting profit on the reduction in the debt. It is essentially shorting its own long-term bonds, while at the same time investing in short-term securities. "

What does it mean? I don't understand. Isn't the interest rate payment for the bond holder fixed rate? Then what's the difference for whether the bond is "valuable" or not?
Sifu please teach me.  notworthy.gif
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Aha.. I see. Yes, the (bond) interest rate is fixed and the investor will get what he/she invested at maturity but the issue is as interest rate rises, the bond value goes down. If the investor does not hold the bond till maturity, he/she decides to sell it, then they'll lose money -that's why bond holders now are nervous.

The author of the article is implying that AAPL knows about the rising interests therefore short sell its own bond (which it already has a fix interest at time of sale) and take the profits to buy short term higher interest securities. I am not sure if AAPL plans to do that but it's just so happen coincidentally Fed plans to 'taper' down next year news got the bond bears excited.
AAPL may or may not be able to take advantage of this but the fact is AAPL already got more than 100 blns in long term investments outside USA which it already accumulated more than the interests it's paying for bond holders. I don't think this is a big deal.

Share prices move only when there is game changer product.. now everyone wants to know what next big thing coming out from AAPL lab.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 24 2013, 12:34 PM
danmooncake
post Jun 24 2013, 08:33 PM

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Holy molly, another rout.. more scare from China (SSC -5.3%).
Futures selling off again, we now at -5.2% pullback, going to -10% correction.
danmooncake
post Jun 24 2013, 09:44 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 24 2013, 09:39 PM)
Here it comes, the perfect combination for storm.  laugh.gif
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Chinese market really good for proxy shorts.. every year the same thing, when it gets to 3000, bam,
they hit it again. Same pattern.

Now, almost back to neckline.
danmooncake
post Jun 24 2013, 10:00 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 24 2013, 09:49 PM)
wow. if repeat history, need to get back to 1500, that's another 40% to drop!  sweat.gif
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It is very strange..that's why a lot investors don't play Chinese market. It is very speculative.. no fundamentals.
Most china based company prefer to be listed in HongKong (Hang Seng) or US Nasdaq. But, now US regulators are looking
closely at Chinese based companies going to backdoor because too many of them gives fake financials report and then declare bankrupt and left investors with useless stock.



danmooncake
post Jun 24 2013, 10:16 PM

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Dow -225 pts, SP -26 pts, I've left half of my bear share GLL on the table last week.
Almost $99-$100 now.. ready for me exit soon.


danmooncake
post Jun 24 2013, 11:13 PM

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QUOTE(Myoswee @ Jun 24 2013, 10:55 PM)
Damn, US market rebounding now

Drop more please  smile.gif
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It will... but not straight down.. Down 200, up 100, down 100, up 50.. overall still down right?
Bear rally mode. laugh.gif
danmooncake
post Jun 25 2013, 08:09 PM

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QUOTE(netmask8 @ Jun 25 2013, 09:00 AM)
DJIA Year-To-Date  > 11%  and S&P 500 Year-To-Date > 10%  .. Still HIGH percentage ( % ) YTD ..

Per historical charts, yearly average growth ~ 5-6% per year .. Need more Bear to step in.
VIX spike ! Many FM plans to take long summer vacation this year. Hence, Start to plot and monitor yr weekly
excel charts to find attractive discount counters. Common Stocks Uncommon Profits  and  The Intelligent Investor
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Muhaha... seems like more people are joining the bear camp. Even bulls also want pullback.

Anyway, got this high flyer now being downgraded.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/netflix-c...tein-2013-06-25

NFLX shorts certainly loving this. wink.gif
danmooncake
post Jun 25 2013, 10:08 PM

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Ka-ching! GLL $100 locked.. I'm out! rclxm9.gif
GLD 123.45.. maybe going to test 120 support soon.

Stocks rebounding a bit.. but precious metals like Gold and Silver getting smashed. shakehead.gif
danmooncake
post Jun 26 2013, 09:35 PM

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Market still moving up on 3 day.. on long side play tonight.
SP500 next target 1615.

Psst..Take a look at NLY (REIT) if someone wants to play some bounce for oversold condition. wink.gif
danmooncake
post Jun 26 2013, 09:51 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 26 2013, 09:44 PM)
400 is really a strong resistance comes support on Apple. Hard to up and also hard to down line.  tongue.gif
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Imo, 400 is support. Be nibble. Place your stop at about $5 below it.
AAPL likes to move in increments of $5.. when you get your $5, trim it and move on. wink.gif

danmooncake
post Jun 26 2013, 09:54 PM

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Psst.. also want to play a China speculative antivirus ship? Take a look at QIHU.
Nice bullish trend despite the bear rout. This thing gonna to target 49 again shortly. wink.gif
danmooncake
post Jun 26 2013, 10:37 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 26 2013, 09:59 PM)
PE 149x?! super growth company?  laugh.gif
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Like I say speculative play only. Trade, not invest. Get in, get out to make money. laugh.gif


danmooncake
post Jun 26 2013, 10:40 PM

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QUOTE(Myoswee @ Jun 26 2013, 10:38 PM)
Gold and silver keep making new low everyday.

Nice  thumbup.gif
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Now, that I'm out of GLL, I'm sad. sad.gif
Got another gap down for GLD.. oh geez.. doh.gif


danmooncake
post Jun 26 2013, 11:44 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 26 2013, 11:36 PM)
you are right, I'm not.  laugh.gif

recently bought in some Apple and now paper loss 10%. It's now below 400, traders pov, should cut loss at 400. But I don't intend to do so. I plan to average down every 15-20%. So waiting for top up at 360-370, follow by 330-340. While my first batch bought at around 430.  biggrin.gif
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As long you're not holding options, you should be ok. AAPL stock price will come back at the 430 level. thumbup.gif

If AAPL dives to 360, I'm in! drool.gif
danmooncake
post Jun 27 2013, 09:38 PM

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Day 3 on bounce day.. initial claims are consensus. So, bulls not afraid here.

SP500 target 1620-1625 seen as resistance. Let see if bulls got momentum to break through or not.



danmooncake
post Jun 28 2013, 12:30 AM

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QUOTE(Macrusin @ Jun 27 2013, 11:02 PM)
I was thinking to buy in some previously tim  brows.gif
Luckily, I hold  biggrin.gif
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IMO, don't play long (bull) side for AAPL yet not it is ready for long term investment. It is still trying to find a bottom. Bears are in still control. Plenty of time later. It seem to want to see 380x again.. wink.gif

Short term trade still ok but bear side is more favorable for every $5 move up, just get some weekly PUTs.
Drops $5 on the next wave down, take profit to scalp. laugh.gif


danmooncake
post Jun 28 2013, 12:49 PM

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QUOTE(Macrusin @ Jun 28 2013, 12:43 PM)
Totally new to stock market, What you said is too technical for me^^
I'm planning to buy it and keep it for long-term.
But due to the problem of QE, it stops me to invest in US market.
Right now, It makes me wanna buy Sony instead Apple d.  brows.gif  brows.gif
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Why Sony? hmm.gif
danmooncake
post Jun 28 2013, 07:00 PM

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QUOTE(Macrusin @ Jun 28 2013, 01:13 PM)
Observed that many consumers has been switching from Samsung to Sony biggrin.gif
Other than that, Japan Market is recovering.
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Muahaha.. the only thing I know and like about Sony is they make great game consoles (PSx)
and movies (Sony Pictures). biggrin.gif


danmooncake
post Jun 29 2013, 10:34 PM

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Allright...

Time for check up and see where we are at.. since we're halfway through 2013 already:

Dow up 13.8%
SP500 up 12.6%
Nasdaq up 12.7%

My trading portfolio: up 23% rclxm9.gif

This year, the market made a much faster upward move than the last two years during the first half and quickly corrected during the last month of the 1st half. I didn't expect this big move but heck, I'll take it!

For 2nd half, I expect the 3rd Q to be slower but still upward and 4th Q, we'll have another one yearly window dressing at the end - assuming no black swan event.

Cash on hand to play the short trading week ahead and I'll be off from Thursday evening onwards. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 29 2013, 10:35 PM

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