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 US stock discussion v4, Bulls-Bears HUAT AH!! Pigs get slaughter

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danmooncake
post Feb 4 2013, 12:08 AM

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QUOTE(netmask8 @ Feb 3 2013, 11:42 PM)
Last Friday closing Dow Jones > 14000 pts  Bounce from 6th March 2009 @ 6627 pts  ..  rclxms.gif  > 100% Gain  rclxms.gif  in 3 years and 10mths ..  rclxm9.gif

Seeing DJIA charts for the past 35 years,  my "own observation" expects DJIA will be reaching 19K- 20K pts in year 2018 ..
My exit plan is DJIA = 17.8K - 18K ..  Ppls need to have DREAM, so that it will be realization and come true .. whistling.gif

My target for long-term holding ( high risk with moderate dividends based companies )

Bank Of America (BAC) double from early 2012 usd 5.80 to usd 11.30 in 1 year timeframe.  flex.gif
Citigroup ©, Beazer Home(BZH), Las Vegas Sands(LVS), MGM, MPEL, KO, CRBC, XL, LYG, MU, RF, FHN

I'm seeing Warren Buffett hardly adjust his portfolios and hold stocks for very very long period? And do you know something, HE ALWAYS SAID USA STOCKS ARE VERY CHEAP with his valuations.

For HK / SG Stocks, perhaps need to create another thread for its purpose.

With DREAM, you are able to set higher GOAL / Objective To achieve it, with certain tools / knowledge / wisdom ..etc..etc..
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Of course-lah. WB is a different class of investor himself and when he BUYs, it goes in millions and billions. He gets PREFERRED shares, we don't. With that, he gets dividends percentage higher than most of us, we don't. So, when all factored in. To him, stocks ARE cheap (compared to US Treasury), giving the yields and future values.

danmooncake
post Feb 4 2013, 10:35 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Feb 4 2013, 05:19 PM)
apple apple, waiting at 400.  brows.gif
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AAPL now looks like it is inverse of market. If market goes higher, AAPL goes down.
If market goes down, AAPL goes up. laugh.gif

Oh well, approx -$55 to go for $400... but it won't be far. You can sell the 400 PUTs while you wait, steal the premium!
5c this week expiration, 20c for next week expiration..50c for next.

If u can get 50c premium for PUT, it will give you raw $50 if you willing to own AAPL at $400/shr later. brows.gif

danmooncake
post Feb 4 2013, 11:53 PM

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QUOTE(countdown @ Feb 4 2013, 11:10 PM)
successfully scalped aapl by using trail stop at +1.00 but aiyeah....so fast triggered...could have made more.... cry.gif
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QUOTE(countdown @ Feb 4 2013, 11:45 PM)
I would prefer both as investor and a trader strategy based on percentage allocation. Most of the gurus would recommend stick to only one side but I beg to differ.
Hybrid smile.gif.
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$1+ scalp also good.. if you're playing options, that's like $100 move. thumbup.gif

Hybrid is good because that's why as trader, you can't be play only one side. Must switch side when the market changes direction.



danmooncake
post Feb 5 2013, 12:38 AM

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QUOTE(countdown @ Feb 5 2013, 12:25 AM)
will hit Fibo level 448 aapl soon?
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The trendline on the 15m chart seems to want to take this to 445'ish. But,
looks like there is some support at 446-447 from last week intraday.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Feb 5 2013, 01:22 AM
danmooncake
post Feb 5 2013, 06:16 AM

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Day 1 of pull back:
Traders take money and run, $VIX spike, PUTs prices increased.

S&P500 1495.71 -17.46 -1.15%
Dow 13880.08 -129.71 -0.93%
Nasdaq 3131.17 -47.93 -1.51%

Tech
AAPL 442.32 -11.30 -2.49%
GOOG 759.02 -16.58 -2.14%

Social Media
FB 28.11 -1.62 -5.45%
LKND 123.30 -0.52 -0.42%

Gaming stocks
LVS 54.35 -1.52 -2.72%
MPEL 20.85 -0.18 -0.86%

Financials
BAC 11.48 -0.23 -1.96%
C 42.21 -0.81 -1.88%

What's positive:
$VIX 14.67 1.77 +13.72%
GLD 162 0.55 0.34%



danmooncake
post Feb 5 2013, 10:46 AM

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QUOTE(countdown @ Feb 5 2013, 09:40 AM)
thanks man.

I had observed the 10min charts, +$1 is quite tight, in fact 95% of the ranges hit more than $1 easily, should have increased to $2.1 instead. Lesson learnt but will only do trail stop, provided I had safely gained more than $2.1. If it swings more than that, at least I got back my capital. What do you think? I might be incorrect.
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It depends on which strike and whether it is in the money or out of money.. for AAPL, the shorter the week, the higher the implied volatility and as the underlying price moves (towards in-the-money or in-strike price), you can see it gains value fast (or lose value fast if it out of money).

For example today, AAPL moves from 455 to 442 (-$13) -2.8%, 450 Puts value went from 4.40 (at open) to 12.50 (close).. +185%.
but 450 calls value went from 8.60 (open) to 2.20 (close) = -75%.


danmooncake
post Feb 5 2013, 10:51 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Feb 5 2013, 09:28 AM)
FB hit-back as well as LVS.

Thinking to join the FB options bandwagon.
$25 Long/Strike.
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Long PUTs for FB? I won't be surprised if FB will eventually get back to $25, just -$3 away.
Lots of interest in there for March 15th expiration. Just 30c per contract to play. brows.gif
danmooncake
post Feb 5 2013, 10:27 PM

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QUOTE(countdown @ Feb 5 2013, 11:56 AM)
Ok, I have to mention my position in details, I bought 1 month option rather than weekly because not familiar with weekly's yet. I set my closing condition of stop loss and profit target based on the price movement of the underlying rather than the option premium/price. Therefore, the greeks involvement is not there though the option pricing is based on greeks.

Still, thank you for your feedback on the volatility/vega  thumbup.gif
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That's also works.. as long you can trend the underlying price movement and sell the option regardless of the price at the time when you've reached your target. Just make sure you got stop loss in place. Because option got theta, the premium will lose its value after one cycle. Weeklies burn especially fast (that's why I don't hold them overnight). Monthly will still do ok but will still lose value if price cycle over 1 week or remains the same.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Feb 5 2013, 10:28 PM
danmooncake
post Feb 5 2013, 10:34 PM

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I'll be watching for reversal play for AAPL tonight. Go long only if AAPL can get above 449 and stay above..
otherwise same downtrend play.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Feb 5 2013, 10:41 PM
danmooncake
post Feb 5 2013, 11:11 PM

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Continue to play the PUTs side for AAPL... didn't follow through on the bounce.
Short if next leg up @ 444-445, 1st target exit: 440, end target exit: 436-437, be flexible here.
Tight stop @ 445.50

- Update: raising stop to 446.50 Price now at the pivot mark: 445.
- Update: Stop out: 446.50, price ramps up to 447.

--
Update: Another try at PUTs play, in 449.20, tight stop: 450 sweat.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Feb 6 2013, 12:13 AM
danmooncake
post Feb 6 2013, 12:41 AM

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Update: Stop out again.. 450.15.. nothing working tonight. mad.gif
I'm done. Staying in cash and watch how it goes.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Feb 6 2013, 12:43 AM
danmooncake
post Feb 6 2013, 02:12 AM

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I'm going to hold on to my discipline and stay out for now. No good trying to chase back after two lost trades for day. Minimal loss.

Anyway, interesting news tidbits for DELL.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412...2125381660.html

They're taking it private. So, the major PCs players can't do well in today highly competitive and lowered margins anymore.
Tablets everywhere.. Chinese makers can undercut Dell easily.


danmooncake
post Feb 6 2013, 02:51 AM

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AAPL 450'ish long mark confirmed now with break out. Time to buy calls again on pull back to ride this baby, watch that resistance area (461-465).
Add longs if break out above 465 (huge gap to play there).

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Feb 6 2013, 06:09 AM
danmooncake
post Feb 6 2013, 09:42 PM

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LVS, MPEL, WYNN, MGM... all getting whacked tonight due to the junket crackdown in China.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-06/g...nket-curbs.html
I guess its about time they bring out the bad news to bring them down again.

AAPL - dived back down to the pivot support at 454-455 premarket.
I'm looking for support at 452-453 to hold here.. below 450, will go short. No position at this time.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Feb 6 2013, 09:43 PM
danmooncake
post Feb 6 2013, 11:02 PM

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AAPL failed to break that 460 again.. dived below the 457.50 line. I will probably play a little PUTs here area on next minor wave up.
danmooncake
post Feb 6 2013, 11:58 PM

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QUOTE(countdown @ Feb 6 2013, 11:50 PM)
stopped out @ 456.75 of aapl...
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Same here.. island reversal in play.. long 458 now.
Darn machines.
danmooncake
post Feb 7 2013, 01:03 AM

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AAPL out 463... minor scalp.
danmooncake
post Feb 7 2013, 08:47 PM

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After one day of getting whacked by rumor monger, looks like another round of channel play for
AAPL tonight. Still can't break out from 465 yet. Range is getting tight.

Top side resistance: 462-465
Support: 453
Break out short: 448

1 more day to weeklies expiration. If price can remain between here till tomorrow closing,
I may want to do a little scalping by shorting those out of money calls (above 465) and puts (below 440). hmm.gif

These two articles are interesting to read:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11834310/1/...e-of-apple.html
http://blogs.reuters.com/bethany-mclean/20...be-a-200-stock/



This post has been edited by danmooncake: Feb 7 2013, 09:11 PM
danmooncake
post Feb 7 2013, 10:24 PM

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Whoa.. premarket AAPL making big upside moves after one hedge fund manager said AAPL should distribute its cash via preferred shares.
danmooncake
post Feb 8 2013, 09:43 AM

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QUOTE(Myoswee @ Feb 8 2013, 05:15 AM)
Aapl last minute took the blue pill
Negaraku _|_
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Pretty volatile day.. got a little short play on the PUTs side to scalp 445 side but got smashed out on the 465 short call side when it bursted over $1.50 (my stop loss)..

Too many news event today. Early trading hours, that Einhorn hedge fund manager sues AAPL to prevent it from stopping preferred shares.. pop the stock $10, then, market realized it isn't a good thing..rolls back down after Einhorn went on CNBC to explain his position. Many investors think AAPL being a growth company is better than being a value company.

Then about 15 mins before closing, AAPL issued their response.
http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/02/07...t-by-Apple.html

The part about "a plan to return $45 billion " part quickly spiked the trading machines up more than 3% from negative to positive....

but on closer look, it's already part of their plan anyway. Going to see how it goes tomorrow.

Looks like we may got a short term floor here at 455-460. biggrin.gif

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