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 US stock discussion v4, Bulls-Bears HUAT AH!! Pigs get slaughter

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yok70
post Dec 29 2011, 03:52 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Dec 29 2011, 12:38 AM)
Time to take your money and run...  biggrin.gif
*
wow! strong words! sweat.gif
yok70
post Jan 2 2012, 06:12 PM

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I am curious to know, anyone starts accumulating US banks? ie. BAC or citibank group?
In 5 years, BAC dropped 90%, citi group dropped 95%. shocking.gif
What do you think? Please share share. notworthy.gif


yok70
post Jan 2 2012, 09:33 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jan 2 2012, 07:29 PM)
Well BAC still have USD 1.3 trillion of mortgage related debts (based on mark-to-model)that is currently having thousands of ongoing litigation in the US, mostly due to Countrywide Financials. So the losses is not yet accounted for and may/may not materialise in the future. The balance sheet is very complicated and hard to understand the true picture of the company:stars:

On the plus side it is selling at 0.3x BV and have USD 0.68 trillion in cash. Worth a bet?
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Thanks for the info. notworthy.gif

Did some readings, an expert said "European Contagion: US banks at risk--JP Morgan, Bank of America, goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley."

However, quite a number of experts said even for the risk, with the cash these banks holding and trading below book value, bank stocks are very cheap.

We gotta judge on our own risk apatite and perspective on near future world economy's approach. Hard one, definitely. laugh.gif



yok70
post Jan 19 2012, 03:56 AM

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Bull is still strong so far. SP500 already at above 1300.
Is this the starting of bull, or starting of bear? hmm.gif
yok70
post Feb 7 2012, 03:15 AM

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No one buying apple? It just started selling "officially" in China last month. Isn't that a huge upside potential? Or you think it's not gonna be that fast? notworthy.gif
yok70
post Feb 7 2012, 03:50 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Feb 7 2012, 03:42 AM)
Nah, I skipped Apple for almost 1 year now.
better options out there.

You can even look at NOKIA (NOK) or RIMM (Still a fund manager favorite)

http://www.cnanalyst.com/2012/02/top-10-mo...eb-05-2012.html

3.73 +0.74 (24.65%
2nd straight day rising.. DUH, why I forgot this one.
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NOKIA?! I thought it's a dead horse already? Cannot see any business opportunity for it yet. It's heading to a dead corner.

I've been eyeing Apple for a year now. Watching it goes higher and higher and still hesitate to buy since worry the heat may cool down from peak. However, the heat is still there now. And again, I'm still hesitate. biggrin.gif
yok70
post Feb 8 2012, 03:42 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Feb 7 2012, 04:01 AM)
I'm eyeing Nokia's options, not the mother share. There is still HOPE for NOKIA.

Haha. Then why not buy the OPTIONS, the cheapest entry to it?

Buy 1 lot enough ma.
So what's your take on APPLE in JAN 2013? 500$? 475$?
It was just $5.00 last 2 months
500 call options

Check the spoiler

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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If Nokia finally agree to sell Android phone, then I will start putting it back to my watch list. biggrin.gif

It's a tough fight for Apple with Android phones now. About the same market share with Samsung alone (22-23%) for now, as Android's users are still increasing. Apple is no longer a "premium" brand to "show face" since it is consider affordable and on par with other brands now. However, if the China fever works out fine, I think even $600 is not a problem by JAN 2013. biggrin.gif
yok70
post Feb 9 2012, 11:42 PM

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apple may touch 500 soon, no need next year. hmm.gif
yok70
post Feb 10 2012, 01:44 AM

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apple already close to 500 right now. Looks like it will be reached today or tomorrow! biggrin.gif
yok70
post Feb 11 2012, 12:49 AM

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Anyone got IBM papers to share? Don't know where to find such resource for foreign market. Beginner here. Using CIMB to trade, and they don't write papers on US market. blush.gif
Thanks!! notworthy.gif
yok70
post Feb 11 2012, 01:32 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Feb 11 2012, 01:17 AM)
i guess I'm looking for FREE papers such as what we can be getting in malaysia. tongue.gif
anyway, thanks! notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Feb 11 2012, 01:37 AM
yok70
post Feb 13 2012, 07:40 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Feb 11 2012, 11:51 PM)
Here's what I got from my broker..

Earnings Summary
On 1/19/2012, IBM reported 4 quarter 2011 earnings of $4.71 per share. This result was in-line with the consensus of the 24 analysts following the company and beat last year's 4 quarter results by 12.68%.
The next earnings announcement is expected on 04/17/2012.

S&P MAINTAINS STRONG BUY OPINION ON SHARES OF INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES
22 days 1 hours 8 minutes ago - Standard & Poor's
IBM posts Q4 operating EPS of $4.71, vs. $4.25, $0.09 above our estimate. For 2012, we look for revenue growth of 2%, as the company benefits from acquisitions, as well as strong gains in the software segment and in emerging markets. However, we expect the hardware segment to continue to lag. We see an incremental widening of operating margins this year on improved productivity and a favorable sales mix. We are lifting our 2012 EPS forecast $0.02 to $14.93 and introducing 2013's at $16.41. We reiterate our P/E-based 12-month target price of $205.  IBM's PE ratio is below the Computer Services industry average and signals that investors are not willing to pay a premium for this stock. However, during the past year, earnings growth has lagged its historical five year growth rate.
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Thanks very much!! notworthy.gif
yok70
post Feb 17 2012, 03:49 AM

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Who is harder to play with? The bear or the bull? tongue.gif
yok70
post Feb 22 2012, 12:11 AM

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they said properties price in US could be rebounding now?
they said west part of US is the best place to buy properties now?
any good properties stocks in US for us to look at?
thanks!! notworthy.gif
yok70
post Feb 22 2012, 12:48 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Feb 22 2012, 12:30 AM)
can think of only one : http://www.nyse.com/listed/spg.html

This stock hardly even crash!

http://www.nyse.com/about/listed/lcddata.h...&ezd=1Y&index=5


Added on February 22, 2012, 12:31 amAdd : http://www.google.com/finance?q=SPG

now at historic high!

Look at the 2 years chart!
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Thanks a lot! I'll look into this company. notworthy.gif


Added on February 22, 2012, 12:51 am
QUOTE(danmooncake @ Feb 22 2012, 12:33 AM)
Who's "they" ?

I say.. it all depends on the banks.. they're still holding a bunch of "foreclosed" properties
yet to be unloaded in the market. Watch them.  Hopefully, 2012 is the bottom..
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"they" are the so called market researchers who posted articles in finance websites that i read recently. laugh.gif
ya, always risk there to search for "the bottom". If not so greedy, just ride the bull after the bull started to run for a while. biggrin.gif
but searching for the bottom is very the exciting one. sweat.gif biggrin.gif



This post has been edited by yok70: Feb 22 2012, 12:51 AM
yok70
post Feb 24 2012, 05:10 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Feb 23 2012, 10:10 PM)
Seriously, I don't think the REITs are rebounding yet in US. Recent Toll Brothers report is a tell-tale we're not there yet but HD report is promising.

I'm going to US this May/June timeframe for job interview and investor conference. I will be able to do more research as I talk to my counterpart.

Tonight: The jobless claims is ok.. no rise or left unchange but the moving averages are moving down (that's good).
Watching AAPL and LNKD tonight.  wink.gif
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Great! Looking forward for your later comments. notworthy.gif laugh.gif
yok70
post Mar 15 2012, 12:25 AM

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Why so many US banks desperately applying to increase dividend payout and share buy back? Does this mean they see their share price very much undemanding? And they have too much cash already? If they have too much cash, why some of them (citibank) not doing good on stress test? Thank you sifus! notworthy.gif
yok70
post Mar 16 2012, 05:08 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Mar 15 2012, 11:35 AM)
Not sifu,
but my opinion is they want to increase the confidence from investor. A lot of banks in Us in these years since 2007/08 cut out their dividend by large amount. well most of the US bank if you noticed all still stuck in the level of 2009.
The regulation in US had set tougher rule for bank through volcker rule and Basel III to increase the reserve requirement from banks. Beside they also some of the business used to be generating profit for bank.

Too much cash doesn't mean they wont fail the stress test. The purpose of stress test is to test whether bank can withstand with financial shock. They key question what capital is used to withstand those financial shock. some of the capital may NOT BE QUALIFIED since the new rules have been imposed. For example, Hybrid equity which compose of equity and debt always ambiguous for the purpose of reserve capital. Increase equity from investor in order to meet those stress test is a huge cost since investor see DIVIDEND as  compulsory (which is very costly in perspective of bank) consistently.

my 2 cents correct me if I am wrong
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Thanks for the input! notworthy.gif
yok70
post Apr 20 2012, 03:53 AM

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QUOTE(pinkdevil88 @ Apr 20 2012, 01:36 AM)
I hate to say this but you have not research much about the company and the product before commenting. You will know who stole the idea of IOS and mobile patent if you follow the lawsuits AAPL and Oracle is involved in.

SInce you are such an AAPL hater. Why Dont you try to short AAPL? or load up some Put calls? Put your money where your mouth is! The sooner the better. Next Tuesday will be the earnings date for AAPL, do it before its too late.

800 price before end of the year is possible. In fact in case of a bull run. I am up to a 4 digit valuation. A $50 EPS with a 20 PE ratio will seal it.

AAPL products command a premium compare to their competitors because of the ease of use and the ecosystem. No doubt spec to spec there are cheaper products out there compare to the iphone but iphone is the only product that could command such a premium.

AAPl has a gross margin of 40% and net margin of 25%. Please show me another electronic company which has the same margin.
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You are right regarding who was copying from who. On many aspects, Apple was the original while others copied from it.

However, I were having same thought as yours before wondering why Apple was traded at such low PE. After seeing how badly hit HP, Sony, Panasonic (and the older Nokia) were, I guess there is a valid reason for it. Technology business is just among the highest risk business. Anytime, a wrong decision or even just an unexpected judgement can put a company to deep shit. It's so attached to consumer sentiment and mostly purely the mysterious "trend". nod.gif
yok70
post May 6 2012, 03:50 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ May 5 2012, 07:57 PM)
good pricing for APPLE.

Hello $500 smile.gif


Added on May 5, 2012, 7:57 pm

yes, I'm.
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LVS below 50, apple below 500, ibm below 180. BAC below 7, Citi below 25 tongue.gif

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