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 Are property prices going to up further? V3

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Iceman74
post Oct 13 2011, 09:45 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Oct 13 2011, 09:34 PM)
timing no good then transfer millions of $$ to oversea (eg China etc ) and declare bankrupt la.  i dun think Msia bank can touch China bank accounts.
can still spend like king in Msia.. china credit card, ATM, t/t etc. Sound good?
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i hope you knew & prepare a valid reasons to open a foreign personal currency acc & to transfer large amount outside Malaysia sweat.gif
Iceman74
post Oct 16 2011, 09:50 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Oct 16 2011, 01:45 AM)
since you talk about debt....share also
individual total deposits in banks:

RM441,937.816 million

m'sia total population said 28 mil include (malaysian + foreginers; babies + adults)

each persons bank deposit = RM15,800

average household size said 4 persons per household
RM15,800 x 4 = RM63,200 per household.

ok or not ok?
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QUOTE(nlik @ Oct 16 2011, 05:48 PM)
But then.. Construction material prices have really gone up.. http://www.statistics.gov.my...publication...works-september

So far i only see decrease in category Keluli Struktur Structural Steel like U' Type Sheet Piles. The rest all creeping up. sweat.gif
What can you all make out from this diagram ?
Source: http://www.jpph.gov.my/V1/pdf/q211lapstok.pdf
[attachmentid=2487666]

Seems like building plan approvals and completions are going downwards.. does this mean less supply?

This is more worrying.. completion starts and approved is downtrend , also showing decrease in supply...
[attachmentid=2487676]
Contradicting..IN the same report:
Existing Stock
Existing residential units increased from 4,454,282 units (Q1 2011) to 4,466,062 units, contributed by the completion of 11,780 units in the review quarter. Selangor continued her dominance with 28.8% of the total, followed by Johor, Kuala Lumpur and Perak, each with 15.1%, 9.3% and 8.6% respectively. By types, terraced units formed 40.2% (1,797,378 units) of the total, comprised predominantly 2-3 storey (948,489 units) and single storey terraced houses (848,889 units

Incoming Supply
The review quarter recorded slightly higher incoming supply of residential units into the market. The total number increased by 2.4% from 547,751 units (Q1 2011) to 560,636 units. Selangor, Johor and Negeri Sembilan dominated the incoming supply. Together, these states accounted for 49.2% (275,799 units) of total supply. By types, 2-3 storey terraced and single storey terraced houses together with condominium/ apartment units remained popular as represented by 19.9% (111,547 units), 19.1% (107,213 units) and 15.4% (86,297 units) contributions respectively.
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If this 2 info are truth, we are heading for major bubble burst in 2012... tongue.gif

7 Mil households with already have around 4.5M residential & every Quarter more then 500k residential enter into market

btw i heard Hongkong newly launch properties price are lower then the average price of the surrounding
If yes, then construction materials increase reason doesn't hold water any longer jor rclxms.gif

This post has been edited by Iceman74: Oct 16 2011, 09:54 PM
Iceman74
post Oct 16 2011, 10:58 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Oct 16 2011, 09:58 PM)
wrong la...hahaha, who is going to build 500k residential properties for you every quarter?

besides building materials, dont forget labour cost also increase. (not in term of wages, but cost to do business) lol

to reduce / to maintain the property selling price, developer might go for sub-quality materials lo. so do not surprise you pay so much for your property but you get poor quality materials/workmanship.
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since when we get 100% on what developers promise sweat.gif
maybe after much publicity complained or advertising stunts

cost of doing business increase?? r u sure?
the only things increase substantial are rental(greedy owners including me - cos they peg ROI to minimum FD interest income) & wages. And these 2 are related to each others brows.gif

Iceman74
post Oct 18 2011, 11:43 AM

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up or down by how much, nobody really know
just dun sai lang all into properties investment...leave a cash portion(prefer a huge portion now) for future investments

but then again, the location i looking for, price are softening smile.gif

Iceman74
post Oct 18 2011, 12:02 PM

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[quote=Fazab,Oct 18 2011, 11:56 AM]During the beginning of the US subprime crisis, the reaction by banks were to raise interest rates.

Because they were losing a lot of money (many people overborrowed and cannot pay) they try to cover by charging those who can pay.
This only stop when the US Feds step in to bail out the bank.

True, the situation was 'saved', but at what cost to the country?

Also, US and UK can do quantitative easing - print more money like mad to save the economy - we cannot.

Can this happen in Malaysia? Fortunately our banks are still quite regulated. No funny derivatives and loan bundling.
But if too many people over-borrowed to speculate, it is possible to have a short term mini subprime crisis.

As I keep emphasizing - the question is how many people have been borrowing recklessly.

That will determine how market will go - up still, soft landing, hard landing, crash.

Manutdiggs kor is right. We can only predict. He is optimistic, I am conservative.

We choose what we want to believe in, and act accordingly. Life goes on.
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[/quote]

I believe there will be crashing on Credit card overspending soon. Yesterday my wife received a love letter from Citibank to provide income proof for the Rm36k BNM regulation rule to be inforce on 1st Jan 2012.


Added on October 18, 2011, 12:01 pm
May be culturally different for the older generation.

But take a look at the younger generation. Their financial outlook just like the Americans, Europeans.

That is what Lee Kuan Yew very worry about.
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[/quote]

yup, agreed with you. younger generations are more brand/trend/product awareness tongue.gif


Added on October 18, 2011, 12:08 pm[quote=insaint708,Oct 18 2011, 11:54 AM]
mind to share where is the location you looking for?
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[/quote]


Puchong

This post has been edited by Iceman74: Oct 18 2011, 12:08 PM
Iceman74
post Oct 18 2011, 03:10 PM

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from http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...65&sec=business

let me translate it

“We are still positive on the sector for the next year and we hope, despite a prolong European debt crisis, there will be a soft landing. We believe the demand for properties will continue to be buoyant because we have a young population and there is a lot of rural-urban migration,” he said.


Don't worry, soft landing are coming but we have a lot uninformed buyers.


Leong said property purchase was very much driven by two factors job security and sentiment.

as long gov don't lose

The country's savings rate and healthy employment market are the other factors contributing to the strong property sector.

“Beginner homes below RM500,000 will meet buyers' needs,” he said.


If really bad, we launch properties with lower price, so is game on for flippers


In today's market, he said, prices of high-end homes were expected to soften a bit.

for flippers on high end market...gotcha, be prepare to hand on yr trousers

“We expect mid- to high-end uniti to be popular. Semi-detached units priced at about RM1.4mil or thereabouts will be in demand. For bungalows it will be those RM3mil or thereabouts. The location, accessibility and the availability of amenities are other contributing factors to the success of a project,” he said.

We do have same things to offer, why go for 2nd hand


At the same time, the company is also replenishing its land bank. It recently purchased a piece of land in Rawang of about 90ha for RM92mil.


see, we still can get cheap land...muahaha



Iceman74
post Oct 19 2011, 10:13 AM

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QUOTE(phoenix69 @ Oct 19 2011, 10:06 AM)
The best scenario for all is that property price remain stable  nod.gif
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the problem now is if the price remain stable, can those overleverage flippers absorb the instalment fully on longer terms if they do not reduce the asking price. Maybe a very short duration drop in properties price will do good things more then bad.
Iceman74
post Oct 19 2011, 02:40 PM

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QUOTE(kidmad @ Oct 19 2011, 12:50 PM)
If you fork out your own cash money you will still get the same amount gain la. Don't look at the % it's deceiving. The only difference here which we need to take into consideration is bank lawyer fee + 5% incase of lock in period. You save quite a huge sum from there. You put down payment when VP you flip and earn 100k, the person who use their own hard cash will have the same amount of earnings.

*however a greedy cash load free person will be looking into a few unit and instead of buying 1 unit most likely he will take his hard cash and split it to a few.
i believe you dun know the true meaning of flipping

let said you have 500k cash, either you can buy 1 unit cash or 10 units on 10% downpayment & the rest on loan

after VP, you can dispose & net gain 50k on each units for 9 units (50k x 9units = 450k)
all the profit goes to the last unit & settled the loan
end result you will still have1 unit & RM450k cash from the disposal

Your friend unutilise the chance given but dun follow me cos it hell of the ride for 2/3 years b4 VP...tongue.gif

Iceman74
post Oct 19 2011, 02:44 PM

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QUOTE(TheDoer @ Oct 19 2011, 02:41 PM)
We are all merely rushing to get to the top.  Nobody is willing to line up like civilized people.

The suffering will stop, when we all behave.
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haha...now in stampede mode, hope not in stampede mode during down cycle


Added on October 19, 2011, 2:45 pm
QUOTE(lucerne @ Oct 19 2011, 12:30 PM)
i think econ cycle is oni benefit to the rich.  they will accumulate more $ and push up prices and rental.  our barang will oni be more expensive due to higher rental. eg mix rice, drinks etc.
of coz the developers will be happy to folow suit.

we normal ppl can opni forced to follow their game.
*
earning Millions in properties still consider normal ppl ar tongue.gif
me more "char" then consider what ar laugh.gif


Added on October 19, 2011, 2:58 pm
QUOTE(twincharger07 @ Oct 19 2011, 01:37 AM)
The difference between bolehland and US is that in US, loan are given to unqualified owners without assessing their repayment capability...
US government start giving guarantee to lenders to lend money to any tom dxck and harry..
Investment products are marketed as AAA rating and sold to other countries to fund their citizen's home loan...
Since the citizen has no obligation and just default when they cant repay..
When owners start defaulting their loan, it creates a ripple effect from US to other countries who bought their bad assets..

Americans are always live in debts, much more higher debt ratio compare to us.. it is shocking to see they willing to default their homeloan 1st but maintaining other debts to fund their lifestyle..

It is very different compare to Asians who position our home as the center of our life.. we can sell our cars but not our house, but the American did the other way round..

No doubt job opportunity in US is alarming.. a major factor is that all the manufacturing and outsourcing are done in low cost country which are asian countries.. Malaysia is a good example... there are plenty of jobs here bcos all this giant MNC set up their company in this low cost country, those are American companies, but majority of their emplyees are non-Americans..

Another factor that set us apart from the US is that Bolehland's bank are still being strictly ruled, credit profiles are still strictly examined, unlike the yankee's practising cowboy style...

so is Msia going into subprime?
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Malaysia Banks strict whistling.gif
What you see in reports are diluted by majority of small creditors, it need just a small minority big creditors get into trouble, then you will know the answer above

This post has been edited by Iceman74: Oct 19 2011, 02:58 PM
Iceman74
post Oct 19 2011, 06:30 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Oct 19 2011, 06:12 PM)
yes alot of biz man oni declared 5k /month for tax purposes but owned >20 properties for rental (mainly shops etc)
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if declare 60k/year & buy shop...good luck doh.gif
they will need a lot good luck rclxub.gif
Iceman74
post Oct 19 2011, 07:02 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Oct 19 2011, 06:39 PM)
haha, u dun believe?? i know many of them..

pls take those old days bank do not share loan info so they can have multiple loans with just 5k salary + co financial statement. but they still can afford to pay loan installments from biz income..and continue to buy new prop etc.  nowaday, if you can show bank the valid tenancy agrements, the bank will continue to borrow new loan with jsut 5k salary + biz financial statement.
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I'm not saying i dun believe you. Just that these ppl haven't being visited by IRB for teh tarik session.
The few cases happened to clients around me, some have to sell shoplot/condo to settled the penalty.
Mostly visited by IRB will not go back emptyhanded. Me waitiing for the teh tarik session also but i prepare for it. tongue.gif

Like the old chinese said, never see a ghost, never afraid of dark
Iceman74
post Oct 19 2011, 07:59 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Oct 19 2011, 07:17 PM)
i heard many biz man now changed their base (or form a trading co ) in sg or Hk i/o Msia to save tax . is it true?   (i have a few fren done this, not sure if it is common now)
i think if msia do not reduce their corportate tax structure the more co will run away.. heard many feel disappointed with 2012 budget.
*
u need to know the respective country tax law to fully take advantage of it.
That's why you have to paid top dollars to accountant/tax agent or marry 1 laugh.gif


Added on October 19, 2011, 8:01 pm
QUOTE(R o Y @ Oct 19 2011, 07:21 PM)
First target RM100k - RM250k properties, lower downpayment and lower fees & stampduty. RM200k property needs only RM20k downpayment + about RM5k legal fees.

With RM5k salary, use 1/3 and save 2/3, every 8 months have saved enough to buy 1 RM200k property.

Perviously first 4-5 properties can still get 90% MOF

So 40 months can buy 5 properties with 90% MOF

Next 5 properties take 80 months with 85%-70% MOF

All in 120 months = 10 years

However this have not taken into account:
1. Salary increase
2. Bonus
3. Cashflow from rental properties
4. Security deposit collected can be used to roll

Also can sell/refinance one of the earlier bought properties to get additional cash to purchase more.

With discipline, savings and knowledge, can probably do it within 5-7 years.
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not to mention marry 1 with alike thinking rclxms.gif


Added on October 19, 2011, 8:03 pm
QUOTE(kh8668 @ Oct 19 2011, 07:26 PM)
user posted image

tongue.gif
*
we safe..RM3 for a meal, that very hard to beat it icon_idea.gif
mana can cari this meal drool.gif
look like "mix rice" vendor around that shop can close shop jor doh.gif

This post has been edited by Iceman74: Oct 19 2011, 08:05 PM
Iceman74
post Oct 19 2011, 11:10 PM

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QUOTE(R o Y @ Oct 19 2011, 10:49 PM)
I'm halfway there, and I never said it was simple. I havent been as disciplined and save as much as I could have.

1. I have not had problem to get 90%+legal fees financed up till property no. 4. I dont take MRTA if not compulsary. The few I have are 3-5 years MRTA which cost <RM2k
2. Buy the ones that do give you good rental lah, 3-5 years ago, finding <RM300k properties giving >8% yields were much easier than today. I'm not dreaming, you're just not looking hard enough
3. There's nothing stopping you from buying 2 properties at around the same time. Just because you do not know how to do it doesnt mean it cant be done.
4. If hardworking enough and you've choosen the right property, will be no problem to rent out unit on your own without going thru agent. Well if Sri Kembangan houses not able to rent very high then dont buy them.
5. 1/3 of RM5k is about RM1600 plus. If you are prudent its more than enough. Some people have salary of only RM1600 and they are able to survive.

When I first started investing, BLR was around 7% and bank only give BLR-1%. From that time till now, all my properties are cash positive.

Based on your reply, you are quick to dismiss what others tell you, without actually really trying. I dont lose anything if you choose not to believe me.


Added on October 19, 2011, 10:58 pm

When buying property no 4, the investor will have RM5k salary + RM1300 rental x 3 properties. Bank will include 70% of rental income in calculation so total income = RM7730.

At current mortgage rates, RM720k loan = total installment of about RM3.2k only.

Total DSR < 50% all banks no problem to approve
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Roy, i know is do-able until in yr case, 4th properties
the only problem is after that, in current enviroment is suicide to continue unless you can purchase properties that can generate at least 30% positive cashflow or increase yr income.

really respect you if you do continue... notworthy.gif
me slowdown to enjoy life now, take it as it goes

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