One must have:
1. Workable trading system
2. Discipline to follow system
3. Capital and monitoring time as required by the trading system
By Trading System, it means to have the following:
1. Defined signal for entry
2. Defined signal for exit
3. Defined average accuracy
4. Defined risk reward ratio
5. Defined timeframe to use
This trading system should be:
1. Backtested for reliability
2. Forward test (Demo) to ensure take into account of realtime movements
3. Forward test (Live) to ensure suitability to the user, ie monitoring needs, preference etc.
Further notes on Trading System:
1. Workable system is not one with high accuracy but low risk reward ratio or one with low accuracy but with high risk reward ratio.
2. High accuracy but low risk reward ratio may result in many small winnings but one big loss which wipes out all the winnings.
3. Low accuracy but with big risk reward ratio is akin to the Big Sweep - RM3 for RM3 mil
4. It is a balance between the accuracy and risk reward ratio. Alternative view of it may be:
Accuracy x Average Winnings = System's Reliability
20 pips or 200 pips stop is dependent on the trading system and money management.
By this, it means a balance needs to be striked between-
1. Capital
2. Lot size
3. Volatility of the timeframe of the instrument traded
In general, there are two types of methods:-
1. Trend trading
2. Range trading
Trend trading depends on the collective movement of prices in one direction.
Range trading depends on the sideway movement of bouncing off support and bursting at resistance.
Market trends 20% of the time, making 80% of the moves; whilst
it tends to be ranging 80% of the time with 20% of the moves.
This is a general guide, in line with the pareto 80-20 concept. Different instrument may have different percentages. Prior to trading the instrument, it may be worth to conduct a study on the past behaviour.
Note: Sufficient data should be obtained to ensure that the myopic conclusion is not derived.
Ultimately, trading success is dependent on:
1. Workable trading system
2. Discipline to follow all requirements of the system including monitoring time, provision of capital etc.
Hence, it is that simple. But only definitely not easy.
The notes above are only illustrations of what needs to be done. I might have missed out much more
Feb 20 2011, 12:39 AM
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