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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V67, Alex's 1447 or 1388.....

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cherroy
post Dec 3 2010, 04:17 PM

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QUOTE(Currylaksa @ Dec 3 2010, 04:10 PM)
If I'm not mistaken, analysts say the outlook for shipping rates is still cloudy. hmm.gif
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By the time, anal ysts said it is good, share price already up up up, too late liao. tongue.gif






cherroy
post Dec 3 2010, 04:39 PM

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QUOTE(cypher @ Dec 3 2010, 04:36 PM)
last time OSK is 5K for 1st time...

i use public bank.. need RM 20 only... tongue.gif
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Direct acc with broker firm, RM10 for stamp duty. tongue.gif
cherroy
post Dec 3 2010, 05:24 PM

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QUOTE(skiddtrader @ Dec 3 2010, 05:12 PM)
You have no idea how tempted I was to PM him just now...  biggrin.gif
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Haha, not virgin already lah.
Old uncle liao... laugh.gif

Joking only.
cherroy
post Dec 4 2010, 10:39 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Dec 3 2010, 10:21 PM)
Axreit recent few days got someone trying to push up the price and put on rather big sell queue at much higher price with some gap.
As at current price of 2.34 with latest 3 quarters + estimated some yield as 3rd qtr for the 4th qtr,  yield is only at 6.7%.  doh.gif
I thought to top up some too, but not sure if I should wait for a while for it to consolidate.  hmm.gif

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It is expected to report a improved EPS in the near future, due to new contribution of Quatrro (Previous Nestle house), which a few Q didn't contribute any income due to renovation, as well as newly acquired properties.

Expected EPS/DPU is in the region >16 or 17~18 cents.

If we take 17
17/2.34 = 7.26%

Btw, Atrium and Amfirst still sending dividend through mail, not yet e-dividend.
cherroy
post Dec 4 2010, 10:40 AM

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QUOTE(Myoswee @ Dec 4 2010, 10:22 AM)
Its just that i'm a loyal consumer on their products.

And their products are not that expensive 

My friends' auntie bought Nestle at RM 9 dont know how many years ago and that time she say it is expensive.  laugh.gif

Just like people say GAB is expensive at RM 9.xx now  laugh.gif
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We have inflation problem so 9.xx is not expensive compared to 9.xx 5 years ago. mad.gif
cherroy
post Dec 4 2010, 11:11 AM

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QUOTE(Myoswee @ Dec 4 2010, 10:52 AM)
So cherroy also agree to buy GAB at 9.65 now?  cheers.gif
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Not that what I mean, just we cannot expect stock price to fall back to the level of old day.

As money become smaller nowadays.

RM9 is smaller than Rm9 10 years ago.

So we cannot say 5 years ago was RM6, now Rm 9 is expensive, as goods price are significant higher than before, which resulted company reporting higher number of profit.

8 years ago, petrol price was Rm1.10,
now Rm1.90

So if a pump station is still selling the same quantity of petrol, (let say 10 mil litres) you would see the revenue goes up from 11 million to 19 million in the period of time.
So if profit margin is staying 3%, it means company profit from 330K --> 570K.
As share price is valued at profit level, so share price will go up as the same pace with the price increase.

Recent worldwide share price surge has a lot to do with inflation as well.
Inflation can push up the share price/stock market if central banks don't increase interest rate to counteract the inflation threat.
This is clearly happening on US with QE.


cherroy
post Dec 4 2010, 11:34 AM

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QUOTE(Myoswee @ Dec 4 2010, 11:25 AM)
OT a bit Cherroy

As you say our paper money is getting smaller and smaller

Do you agree gold is a better way to keep the value of our investment?  smile.gif
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Gold can be a place, but stock market is the good place to hedge inflation as well.

I will pick stock market anytime vs gold, as with good dividend stocks, you are expecting to make 5% at least from the stock besides the capital appreciation part.

Gold price almost double from the low of 2008 crisis.
while in this period, some good dividend stock price register also double or even more from the low which not yet taking account into the 5-6% received.

cherroy
post Dec 4 2010, 11:37 AM

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QUOTE(Currylaksa @ Dec 4 2010, 11:22 AM)
I don't know what's wrong with our inflation index, cost of living has skyrocketed YoY yet it's still ~2%. rclxub.gif
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CPI taking in many items into the basket of calculation, so it normalised the figure

For eg.
Toll price no increase - 0%
House rental no increase - 0%
Electricity no increase - 0%
Sugar up 10%
Petrol up 3%
Phone rate 0%

(0+0+0+10+3+0) = 13/6 = 2%

If CPI register 4-5%, it is very serious situation already.
cherroy
post Dec 4 2010, 03:21 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Dec 4 2010, 01:21 PM)
Here go read the October 2010 CPI report if you want to understand better.

CPI OCT 2010

You can see that price of vegetables went up 15% and alcoholic beverages 6%.  hmm.gif But the overall index is 1.7%. Does not include price of property and car though, so the recent run up in house prices is not reflected.  doh.gif

Also the CPI calculation is based on 'essential items only' so if you want to splurge on gadgets, imported goods, nice food, etc etc it will not be reflected as well. SO you can expect your personal CPI to be 1-2x higher than CPI especially those big spender urban dwellers.

If you live in Kampung and have a simple lifestyle, the 1.7% CPI is probably not too far off.
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House and car is not considered "consumable" especially for house, so it is not appropriate to be taken in as consumer price index.

The one that taking into account is rental of house, instead of house itself, as rental of house is a "consumable" item that you need to living.
While buying a house at full price is/can be a form of investment.

Properties price may surge a lot, but rental is not as same pace with house price rise.
cherroy
post Dec 4 2010, 05:42 PM

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QUOTE(Larrylow @ Dec 4 2010, 04:57 PM)
Got a personal question for you, cherroy, haha

From you posts, seem like you are more incline towards high dividend stocks and reits investment. Don't you do trading or invest in undervalued stocks?

Btw, UMA you abit if you don't mind, what is your capital appreciation with this style of investment over the years?  smile.gif
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Capital appreciation, I don't know, some stocks haven't sell, everyday still fluctuation, how to count? biggrin.gif
Some also forget what price I bought already, don't bother to dig out the record/slip that already dusty. tongue.gif

I just know my stocks all are beating the FD rate currently. tongue.gif

But one thing, I can assure you buying steady good dividend stocks are quite rewarding over the long term, and with a peaceful mind everyday.

I am a lousy trader. Others forumers are 10x better than me.



cherroy
post Dec 5 2010, 09:37 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Dec 5 2010, 06:47 PM)
wondering how much the korea war can affect our market, as US and China also kind of tense on it right now (inclusive of Japan-China issue in addition to the korea one).
sigh! buy or sell? I'm newbie woh, give me such challenge so fast meh!  sweat.gif
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I can tell from my experience and personal view.

This kind of event only got effect for short term.
In fact, if tension blow out, the created panic mode could be a buying opportunity.
Mainly because it couldn't blow out to full tension event or WWII like issue.

No matter how, China-US-Japan are having close relationship to each other, one rely on the other, in term of economical way.
Those are more political issue only.

Eg. Iraq war, 911.
cherroy
post Dec 6 2010, 10:50 AM

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Bernanke said QE is not printing money...
and
Bernanke said the fear of inflation is overstated.

Crude oil is >USD 90
Gold > USD1400
RE price shoot to the roof.
Petrol price hike

Ordinary middle and low class people need to tighten their belt to face goods price rising across especially in Asia, and the Fed Chairman inflation is overstated.... vmad.gif
QUOTE
"What we're doing is lowering interest rates by buying Treasury securities," he said. "And by lowering interest rates, we hope to stimulate the economy to grow faster. The trick is to find the appropriate moment when to begin to unwind this policy. And that's what we're going to do."
Fed try to "time" the market/economy?
Do they good in this??
How is their historical record of success "time" and pre-emptied the risk?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/40522488




cherroy
post Dec 6 2010, 11:00 AM

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QUOTE(harry1125 @ Dec 6 2010, 10:52 AM)
I dont understand, buying Treasury securities will cause low interest rate? i thought is higher rate ?
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Bond price up, rate/yield go down.
eg.
Rm1 bond with 5% rate
if bond price goes up to Rm1.50, then yield become 3.33%.
cherroy
post Dec 6 2010, 11:47 AM

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QUOTE(othme @ Dec 6 2010, 11:22 AM)
OSK bs la  vmad.gif  Where got no impact 1. Kopi-peng oredi up 10 sen even though sugar up 20 sen per kg  vmad.gif
500g sugar used in 1 glass of kopi peng meh?  vmad.gif
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Please demand 500g sugar being added into the Kopi-peng from the Kopitiam boss. mad.gif

or

Tell them to tapau the rest (at least) 450g of unadded sugar.
cherroy
post Dec 6 2010, 03:09 PM

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QUOTE(cypher @ Dec 6 2010, 03:04 PM)
but why dont sell it when reach your TP, then when u see down trend and reach ur prefer price..then go in again??

This is what i do..kinda risky when choosing the right price...but then..i practice this...
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There are many strategy can be adopted.

Like if you set the TP at 5.00, you don't sell when it reach 5, but make a profit locking level at 4.90. Aka you only sell if it breach 4.90 (after reaching 5.00), to protect your profit.
If keep on continue go up to 5.30, revise up your locking at 5.30 etc.

In this way, you don't straight away sell when it reach 5.00, as if the stock is on the uptrend, likelyhood, it won't stop at 5.00.
cherroy
post Dec 6 2010, 03:33 PM

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QUOTE(majorarmstrong @ Dec 6 2010, 03:06 PM)
got any stock pick... hand very itchy liao!!!!!!
holding cash too long... must buy must buy..
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I have one recommendation for your itchy hand.

Buy Mopiko. laugh.gif


cherroy
post Dec 6 2010, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Dec 6 2010, 03:40 PM)
Atleast it doesn't have muturity date, unlike the CW.

So it is still a safer bet whistling.gif

*
Who said?

PN17, delisted, kiss goodbye.
cherroy
post Dec 6 2010, 04:00 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Dec 6 2010, 03:56 PM)
Always wanna ask this but forgot!  doh.gif
What is ACE?  notworthy.gif
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You mean this? tongue.gif



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cherroy
post Dec 6 2010, 04:04 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Dec 6 2010, 04:02 PM)
Oh...so it's technology sector? Is MESDAQ similar concept with NASDAQ?  notworthy.gif
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Yes, but quality wise...... sweat.gif


cherroy
post Dec 6 2010, 04:19 PM

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QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Dec 6 2010, 04:13 PM)
since when u see lao sai can fly ! laugh.gif
*
Put lao sai around firecracker and kaboom, flying around. laugh.gif

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