QUOTE(gark @ Feb 22 2013, 12:34 PM)
It's always easy to say rather than do. When actual money is involved, emotions comes to play. There is no low risk high return, companies can go bankrupt and delisted as well.. so lower can become lower until zero. By proper investing and diversification, you can only reduce your alpha risk but not your beta (ie. global/constant) risk.
By all means minibonds and CDO is percepted to be high income and low risk (high interest, AAA investment grade) until it blows up...
Also as in Value investing, the price of stock is irrelevant even it is RM 50 or RM 100. What is important is the value of company in relative to the price.
Some time in short run ie. 2008-2010 period everyone thinks they are master share investor with gains of over 100% as they caught the low, but looking at bigger picture and longer period they may not be always so lucky.
To get constant 20% per year is near impossible, the best investor in the world (WB) is only averaging around 20-24% p.a.
Value investing is a good concept, but IMHO reasonable assumption for equity gain should be only 8%. This is so you do not overestimate your 'earning' power. For retirement purpose best to assume 4% income rate to have proper buffer before you decide to take the plunge.
You got your point, I have my own.
As I am giving connotation of RM10 VS RM50 VS RM100, I do not mean we should judge investment with absolute value. Let me elaborate another way that if the intrisinc value of a share is RM100, then which position of the price is safer? RM50 or RM100? If RM50 is a safer position to buy, would not it be a position to make more profit when the price reflect the real value. So my arguement still stick.
"To get constant 20% per year is near impossible, the best investor in the world (WB) is only averaging around 20-24% p.a." ---> How you know is near impossible? So far I am getting CAGR 20% per year .
Warren Buffet indeed achieved more than 20% in his initial year of investment. He used to have achived 30% or 40% in his early year of investment. But when his portfolio size is getting bigger and bigger and eventually it becomes the size of the mini-market, his portfolio is only able to generate average return as what the market achieves. But with his earlier excellance achievement of 30% to 40%, that would still in average raise his 50-year CAGR by 10% higher than the market return at 8% to 10%.
Since I am not Warren Buffet, hence I only achieve 20% in my earlier age of investment (not like Warrent Buffet getting 30% to 40% at his early year of investment), eventually if my portfolio size increased, my return would mean reverse close to the market index at 8% to 10%. Then my CAGR return since inception could be reduced to 15% or lower.
Whether it is reasonable assumption for equity gain should be 8% or not, that would be subject to your capability of achieving it. Maybe you can't do it but that does not mean other people cannot achieve it. Or you are too just preduent to think that bad year may happen and you wouldn't be able to survive by 4% or not willing to erode your investment portolio, then you it's up to you to have accumulated higher a investment portfolio before you retire.
Whereby me had in certain years only achieved return lower than the FD or even negative, but I believe with my researh skill and investment framework will also able to catch some good years for my investment with a return of up to 30% to 40% or even 100% a year, so by average my CAGR is approximately 20% by now, maybe in later years it would reduce to 15% when my portfolio size grows bigger.
This post has been edited by kinwing: Feb 22 2013, 01:59 PM