QUOTE(gark @ Feb 22 2013, 02:09 PM)
Yes as you say yourself over the long term and with higher investment amount, you will not get 20% constantly. Good for you to get 20% CAGR for the past few years, but stating that high income with low risk is not correct. Stock market is high risk, you may be lucky to flip several coins in a row to get outsized returns but that does not mean that you will get the same flip year after year. Stock market is high risk and high gain, the risk is measurable by votality, so it is not an implied risk. By stating your view, you might inadvertently encourage people to think that stock market is a free lunch, which it is not, it is dangerous and required loads of hard work to make it work. It is not for everyone, especially those with low tolerance for risk.
If you start investing in the 2000's 20% CAGR is not a problem until now, my investment gains more than doubled when I start investing in 2006 until now, but as you say the higher amount you have you will feel the constraints. But who knows on the future, anything might happen, so taking 8% long term view on equity and 4% withdrawal rate is prudent financial practice. Since you are a student of Graham & Buffett, you should be familiar with the quote 'margin of safety'.
For me, I pretty comfortable with share market and well understand the inherent risks of shares investment, and I know how to manage risks of share investment, hence to me share is a type of low risk and high return investment tool. If you start investing in the 2000's 20% CAGR is not a problem until now, my investment gains more than doubled when I start investing in 2006 until now, but as you say the higher amount you have you will feel the constraints. But who knows on the future, anything might happen, so taking 8% long term view on equity and 4% withdrawal rate is prudent financial practice. Since you are a student of Graham & Buffett, you should be familiar with the quote 'margin of safety'.
I am just stating my opinion and it is referring to my own experience. I do not ask everyone to follow my opinion, it is up to your call. I just let everyone to understand there could be a way to achieve low risk high return if you are willing to find that out. I still stick to my point that there is low risk high return investments, irregard of shares, properties or alternatives investments, as long as you are applying the correct investment framework, and value investing strategy is one of the frameworks that work well for me.
Of course I know MOS, and how do you know if I am not prudent not to aim of 4% to 8% instead of 20%. I mentioned I am now getting CAGR 20% by now, does not mean that I will retire when I achieve 20% return, otherwise I'd have retired long ago.
I was saying if my portfolio's annual return was twice of my salary then I would retire, and this portfolio's annual return could be 4% to 8% of my portfolio's value. Please read between the line.
Feb 22 2013, 02:48 PM

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