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 US stock discussion v3, Double Bottom coming?

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danmooncake
post Jul 4 2010, 09:42 PM

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QUOTE(epalbee3 @ Jul 4 2010, 12:46 AM)
50% means 5500 points.. wink.gif wow.. too much.

don't worry, it won't go there straight; if it goes, we always have some chance to sell into pop.. I guess next week DOW has the potential to go to 9.2k. But be careful, last two days we have small dips.

If the real dip ever come, it will not be a few tens points; usually 200-400 points. watch out and plan properly what you think it should be: bear or bull, once it moves, no chance to invert it..

I am still full in bear.

In fact, what I worry is the fundamental US economy, you all know what is the situation, can't really find a good news except pres. obama said to build the broadband for rural areas.

Then, judge yourselves, market is unpredictable, but please play protectively..

Added on July 4, 2010, 1:17 ambut DOW needs 9k points to reach 20% dip from its top..

will this be achieved next week?
*
Er..no, 50% here is for the Fibo retracement, that's approx Dow 8900 (not Dow 5500) or SPX 950, close enough for your Dow 9k call.
Dow 9k is a approx. 25% dip, not 20% dip from top (11205), clearly a bear market territory. wink.gif

Next week game plan - Euro bank stress tests, expected to pass (or major disappointment). We may pop up a little but good to sell and for re-positioning shorts. nod.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 4 2010, 09:51 PM
epalbee3
post Jul 5 2010, 12:05 AM

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let's wait for it.. tomorrow is US independent day, so no market.. but we can know what happens through Asean market.. if both are down, we will se a big dip..
danmooncake
post Jul 5 2010, 12:13 AM

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QUOTE(epalbee3 @ Jul 5 2010, 12:05 AM)
let's wait for it.. tomorrow is US independent day, so no market.. but we can know what happens through Asean market.. if both are down, we will se a big dip..
*
I'll be watching for Europe market, which is the tail end before the start for NYSE. nod.gif
epalbee3
post Jul 5 2010, 05:26 PM

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seeing today's market.. i think tomorrow will still be a dip for US market..

stay tuned..
danmooncake
post Jul 5 2010, 08:31 PM

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Europe market still green. Let see how it ends. tongue.gif


TSzamans98
post Jul 5 2010, 08:42 PM

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Not too bad, based on the current market movement. We can expect a green day on Tuesday. Good sentiment due to the ID day.
epalbee3
post Jul 5 2010, 10:14 PM

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mixed day.. waiting for US market to join, other markets can make no directions.

Tomorrow US market may see below 9.5k..
Futures is now negative..

Depends on the market sentimental now..

Added on July 5, 2010, 10:16 pmAnyway, what happen today still have to combine with tomorrow's market to influence US market.

If CI tomorrow raises above 1300, I will short the future and hold a few weeks..

Added on July 6, 2010, 5:44 pmSeems like my stocks and futures will doom today.

If talking about how doom, it depends how long the "valuation" lies will remain until they have to uncover it..

Most probably will hibernate for tonight and stand for the winter..

enjoy the bull tonight.. wink.gif

This post has been edited by epalbee3: Jul 6 2010, 05:44 PM
danmooncake
post Jul 6 2010, 08:10 PM

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Well, we're coming off a bit of a oversold condition. Every bit of a lack of bad news will become good news.
Let the bulls take this north tonight! Need another week of so before earnings. biggrin.gif

Also, the stress tests for Europe banks aren't that bad... biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 6 2010, 09:05 PM
epalbee3
post Jul 6 2010, 10:17 PM

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how is the stress test?
danmooncake
post Jul 6 2010, 10:40 PM

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QUOTE(epalbee3 @ Jul 6 2010, 10:17 PM)
how is the stress test?
*
Well, the concerns for them have eased off. That's why Europe rallies and Dow follows.

Anyway, back to US market.

The semi-conductors are doing pretty good. Have you all notice that during the past 2 months of general stocks decline, STEC and CRUS have been doing pretty good? I think STEC will eventually go back to $15 or $16 range.
epalbee3
post Jul 6 2010, 10:42 PM

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semiconductor is an area which has cycles..

one cycle good and one cycle bad, you must be able to see these cycles to win..

the market share for semicon is only for big company, except those generating SOC.

Added on July 6, 2010, 10:43 pm
QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 6 2010, 08:10 PM)
Well, we're coming off a bit of a oversold condition. Every bit of a lack of bad news will become good news.
Let the bulls take this north tonight!  Need another week of so before earnings. biggrin.gif

Also, the stress tests for Europe banks aren't that bad...  biggrin.gif
*
I really feel that this is a news purposely created to raise the market..

nothing concrete has even happened.. it is made news..

This post has been edited by epalbee3: Jul 6 2010, 10:43 PM
danmooncake
post Jul 6 2010, 10:46 PM

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QUOTE(epalbee3 @ Jul 6 2010, 10:42 PM)
semiconductor is an area which has cycles..

one cycle good and one cycle bad, you must be able to see these cycles to win..

the market share for semicon is only for big company, except those generating SOC.

Added on July 6, 2010, 10:43 pm

I really feel that this is a news purposely created to raise the market..

nothing concrete has even happened.. it is made news..
*
Yes, it is all technical trades now.. since we're oversold, market wants to go up.. then get ready for bigger dive later.

Personally, I like to see it go back up to 1100 for better shorts at that level. It is possible if earnings are artificially ramped up. laugh.gif


debbieyss
post Jul 6 2010, 11:21 PM

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Hi sorry, just to double confirm, on 2 July 2010, DJ closed at 8,300.02. Was it true?
danmooncake
post Jul 6 2010, 11:37 PM

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QUOTE(debbieyss @ Jul 6 2010, 11:21 PM)
Hi sorry, just to double confirm, on 2 July 2010, DJ closed at 8,300.02. Was it true?
*
No.. it was 9686.48 -46.05 -0.47%.

I guess, the MM already preview that it will reach 8300 soon. tongue.gif
debbieyss
post Jul 6 2010, 11:38 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 6 2010, 11:37 PM)
No.. it was 9686.48 -46.05 -0.47%.

I guess, the MM already preview that it will reach 8300 soon.  tongue.gif
*
How come Yahoo Finance shows it closed at 8300 on 2 July? rclxub.gif
danmooncake
post Jul 7 2010, 12:04 AM

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QUOTE(debbieyss @ Jul 6 2010, 11:38 PM)
How come Yahoo Finance shows it closed at 8300 on 2 July?  rclxub.gif
*
Yahoo sometimes goof'ed up on many of its numbers when there is no trading on that day. It is misprint.
But, Dow was around 8300 July 2, 2009. biggrin.gif



epalbee3
post Jul 7 2010, 12:22 AM

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Then we shall see 8000 soon..

If today DOW turns red, tomorrow will be a big big dip.. wink.gif

Added on July 7, 2010, 12:50 ami have feeling that today DOW is going to red..

we may see big big dip tomorrow in Asia..

This post has been edited by epalbee3: Jul 7 2010, 12:50 AM
TSzamans98
post Jul 7 2010, 02:19 AM

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wow, almost SCAM like. MM pushed up, then make money. Now sell sell sell.

Nobody knows. Should sell my C, and buy back at current price. WTF.

Form +$700 to now - $110!
danmooncake
post Jul 7 2010, 02:31 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Jul 7 2010, 02:19 AM)
wow, almost SCAM like. MM pushed up, then make money. Now sell sell sell.

Nobody knows. Should sell my C, and buy back at current price. WTF.

Form +$700 to now - $110!
*
They're showing everyone that they're in control. Just watch it to bring it back up to kill the shorts. nod.gif

Closing update:
Dow 9743.62 +57.14 +0.59%
Nasdaq 2093.88 +2.09 +0.10%
S&P500 1028.06 +5.48 +0.54%

See... they brought it back to green as a teaser, Dow up +57 pts, half of +100 pts at premarket. nod.gif

We're still very volatile here. Be very cautious here. nod.gif


This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 7 2010, 04:53 AM
epalbee3
post Jul 7 2010, 07:53 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Jul 7 2010, 02:19 AM)
wow, almost SCAM like. MM pushed up, then make money. Now sell sell sell.

Nobody knows. Should sell my C, and buy back at current price. WTF.

Form +$700 to now - $110!
*
zaman, i think this is a purposely made news.

ask a analyst to write a good report, then the momo come in and bring up the price.

nothing concrete, no data.

In fact, DOW had once become -50 last night. Now close 50..
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