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 US stock discussion v3, Double Bottom coming?

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neozero
post Jul 1 2010, 11:50 PM

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Most small cap are already at the lowest in 52 weeks already
TSzamans98
post Jul 1 2010, 11:56 PM

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QUOTE(neozero @ Jul 1 2010, 11:50 PM)
Most small cap are already at the lowest in 52 weeks already
*
yup, that;s why it seems, after the WORLD CUP 2010 (which was staged and cause people to "lose" focus for 1 month), market will goes haywire again. Argh - not enough fund to buy again ...
neozero
post Jul 2 2010, 12:05 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Jul 1 2010, 11:56 PM)
Argh - not enough fund to buy again ...
*
Same problem here... everything is down but with limited fund what should I focus on... arhhhh
TSzamans98
post Jul 2 2010, 12:19 AM

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Look at GOLD, it that a sign that the pipe is about to burst?


Gold Price Change due to Weakening of US Dollar+17.20
Gold Price Change due to Predominant Selling-50.00
Gold Price: Total Change-32.80

Jul 01, 2010 12:15 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1209.60 - 1210.60
Low/High 1206.10 - 1245.10
epalbee3
post Jul 2 2010, 12:26 AM

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-200 points is on-going..


danmooncake
post Jul 2 2010, 02:06 AM

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QUOTE(epalbee3 @ Jul 2 2010, 12:26 AM)
-200 points is on-going..
*
Nice, I've covered some shorts positions here.

Closing update:
Dow 9732.53 -41.49 -0.42%
Nasdaq 2101.36 -7.88 -0.37%
S&P500 1027.37 -3.34 -0.32%

We have a bit of a reversal here after SPX hit 1010 (that's the support line).
Not green but good enough until we get the job numbers on Friday.

This is the big one, let see how the market reacts. Remember, market expects 9.8% (which is already bad).
If it comes in worse than this, then it is KABOOM!! laugh.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 2 2010, 06:59 AM
mH3nG
post Jul 2 2010, 07:47 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Jul 1 2010, 11:47 PM)
Read this:

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

*
Thanks zamans98.
Erroralot
post Jul 2 2010, 08:08 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 2 2010, 02:06 AM)
Nice, I've covered some shorts positions here.

Closing update:
Dow 9732.53 -41.49 -0.42%
Nasdaq 2101.36 -7.88 -0.37%
S&P500 1027.37 -3.34 -0.32%

We have a bit of a reversal here after SPX hit 1010 (that's the support line).
Not green but good enough until we get the job numbers on Friday.

This is the big one, let see how the market reacts. Remember, market expects 9.8% (which is already bad).
If it comes in worse than this, then it is KABOOM!!  laugh.gif
*
Reporting in! smile.gif

Nice reversal! Jobs jobs jobs tonight... if it unexpectedly beats expectation for the better, I am gonna be expecting a lot of short squeezing! Be prepared to cover shorts in pre market if that happens (notes to self too!)

Goood luck to all ! thumbup.gif
epalbee3
post Jul 2 2010, 01:10 PM

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Don't worry, good job result will also dump the market..

there are other news like china and europe..

But I do see the immediate support point at 9.7k..

We need to break this tonight or we have to bounce a little back..

I am holding long term short..
htt
post Jul 2 2010, 01:44 PM

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Check in.
TSzamans98
post Jul 2 2010, 04:27 PM

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Today, we have the mother of news :

Unemployment Rate

Market is going to be very volatile....
danmooncake
post Jul 2 2010, 08:31 PM

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Jobs numbers are better than expected than last month...!! rclxms.gif

http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Unemployment rate: 9.5m (June) versus 9.7m (May) (this is good)
Private sector increases: +83k versus 33k (last month), ok but higher than 100k is expected

Opps.. the details on the hourly worked aren't too good here. hmm.gif
Non-farm payroll: -125k (June) vs. +431k (May)
Hourly worked: -0.1 (June) vs +0.2 (May)

Overall numbers seems okay here with the layoff the census bureau.. private sector picked up some
but not as much as expected (100K or higher).

Update
I'm going to close out my shorts tonight. Not going to hold out for 3 days weekend. Keeping some longs on
the table because I think we're oversold a bit and more than price in and should go back up some for next week.

Next week: I think the stress tests for the European banks should be watched.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 2 2010, 09:10 PM
epalbee3
post Jul 2 2010, 10:00 PM

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I will see the dip tonight because this big news cannot drive the market up..

somemore, people do not know which number to look at, so I will hold on short..

Enjoy today ride..
GregPG01
post Jul 2 2010, 10:01 PM

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Direction less after 30 mins. doh.gif
danmooncake
post Jul 2 2010, 10:32 PM

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QUOTE(GregPG01 @ Jul 2 2010, 10:01 PM)
Direction less after 30 mins.  doh.gif
*
It will stay flat for tonight till next week. The job numbers (in the details) aren't really glory but they are not armageddon either. If the market didn't tank earlier this week expecting this bad job number, it could have tanked today.

Factory orders in May also show slow down: -1.4 vs. +1.2 (April)

Longer term trend still down. nod.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 2 2010, 10:36 PM
epalbee3
post Jul 2 2010, 10:56 PM

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seems like DOW is trying very hard to break 9.7k..
danmooncake
post Jul 2 2010, 11:12 PM

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Decided to stay out longs all together. I'm out for now. laugh.gif
epalbee3
post Jul 2 2010, 11:54 PM

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All in for short here.. brazil lose the ball..


Added on July 3, 2010, 12:42 amquiet there?


Added on July 3, 2010, 12:43 amit is going below 9.6k tonight..


Added on July 3, 2010, 9:02 amjust dip like 40 points at the end.

now 9686.48.

US is enjoying the independent day, then people will forget about the market and go for shopping and travelling.

This week China has led the dip by it HangSeng, ShangZheng and ShenZhen in a few consequtive days. Europe bank stress test will be on next week.. US has no market on Monday, so anything happens will be reflected only on Tuesday night.

On the other hand, California state governor Arnold has ordered to pay only minimum wages to the government staffs since they cannot balance the financial situation.

So, for next week, there will be push and pull by bull and bear. Bear will still have bigger chance to win.

Remember, theoretically the market now is already -15% from the top. Then people said it is entering into bear which will dip another 20-30%, overall.

What is your outlook for next week?

This post has been edited by epalbee3: Jul 3 2010, 09:02 AM
danmooncake
post Jul 3 2010, 09:18 PM

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Good evening,

Had to take off early yesterday - close shop early. Didn't post any update. I guess we all know what's the score anyway. Bears won! biggrin.gif

There are no bulls in sight and I'm afraid none will appear for a while. The path has been carved out for more bears for now.
You are correct, we actually have exceeded the -15% from the top for this correction (Dow -15.6%, SPX -18%, Nas -20%).
Once reached or exceeded 20%, we're officially in bear market territory. Nasdaq already reached that target.

The "death cross" (50MA below 200MA) for SPX has occurred. Dow will be next, followed by Nasdaq. Once all three confirmed, then more heavy selling. Selling will accelerate even faster if that happens because large funds won't tolerate that and they will dump.
Hence, we may see -40% to -50% from the top.

The only saving grace will be earnings and even if there are good earnings, the bounce won't be high.
People will take opportunities to sell into the pop.

Then, we will clearly see Double Dip is in the works here. nod.gif



epalbee3
post Jul 4 2010, 12:46 AM

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50% means 5500 points.. wink.gif wow.. too much.

don't worry, it won't go there straight; if it goes, we always have some chance to sell into pop.. I guess next week DOW has the potential to go to 9.2k. But be careful, last two days we have small dips.

If the real dip ever come, it will not be a few tens points; usually 200-400 points. watch out and plan properly what you think it should be: bear or bull, once it moves, no chance to invert it..

I am still full in bear.

In fact, what I worry is the fundamental US economy, you all know what is the situation, can't really find a good news except pres. obama said to build the broadband for rural areas.

Then, judge yourselves, market is unpredictable, but please play protectively..


Added on July 4, 2010, 1:17 ambut DOW needs 9k points to reach 20% dip from its top..

will this be achieved next week?

This post has been edited by epalbee3: Jul 4 2010, 01:17 AM

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