2nd half of the year.. the BEARS are here to stay.

Gold today just profit taking but IMO, it will go higher in the coming days. It is the fear factor because of Europe.

Oil broke below technical support at $73 now. All commodities are being liquidated now for cash by funds.
TCK below 29
FCX below 58
X below 38

SPX is now below 1020.. if we closed below this, huge leg down in the next few days.

Cheap will get cheaper soon.

Dow just broke below 9700.. if we close here, H&S will confirm.

Short is good.

Nobody can accurately predict the bottom. We've dropped through the floor at major index. It will continue to go down for another leg. Just wait 1 to 2 weeks and see where it goes.

Earnings may be the only chance for the market to rally back up but until then, bears rule or just play the short side to win.

Nice, I've covered some shorts positions here.

Closing update:
Dow 9732.53 -41.49 -0.42%
Nasdaq 2101.36 -7.88 -0.37%
S&P500 1027.37 -3.34 -0.32%

We have a bit of a reversal here after SPX hit 1010 (that's the support line).
Not green but good enough until we get the job numbers on Friday.

This is the big one, let see how the market reacts. Remember, market expects 9.8% (which is already bad).
If it comes in worse than this, then it is KABOOM!!

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 2 2010, 06:59 AM

Jobs numbers are better than expected than last month...!!

http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Unemployment rate: 9.5m (June) versus 9.7m (May) (this is good)
Private sector increases: +83k versus 33k (last month), ok but higher than 100k is expected

Opps.. the details on the hourly worked aren't too good here.
Non-farm payroll: -125k (June) vs. +431k (May)
Hourly worked: -0.1 (June) vs +0.2 (May)

Overall numbers seems okay here with the layoff the census bureau.. private sector picked up some
but not as much as expected (100K or higher).

Update
I'm going to close out my shorts tonight. Not going to hold out for 3 days weekend. Keeping some longs on
the table because I think we're oversold a bit and more than price in and should go back up some for next week.

Next week: I think the stress tests for the European banks should be watched.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 2 2010, 09:10 PM

It will stay flat for tonight till next week. The job numbers (in the details) aren't really glory but they are not armageddon either. If the market didn't tank earlier this week expecting this bad job number, it could have tanked today.

Factory orders in May also show slow down: -1.4 vs. +1.2 (April)

Longer term trend still down.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 2 2010, 10:36 PM

Decided to stay out longs all together. I'm out for now.

Good evening,

Had to take off early yesterday - close shop early. Didn't post any update. I guess we all know what's the score anyway. Bears won!

There are no bulls in sight and I'm afraid none will appear for a while. The path has been carved out for more bears for now.
You are correct, we actually have exceeded the -15% from the top for this correction (Dow -15.6%, SPX -18%, Nas -20%).
Once reached or exceeded 20%, we're officially in bear market territory. Nasdaq already reached that target.

The "death cross" (50MA below 200MA) for SPX has occurred. Dow will be next, followed by Nasdaq. Once all three confirmed, then more heavy selling. Selling will accelerate even faster if that happens because large funds won't tolerate that and they will dump.
Hence, we may see -40% to -50% from the top.

The only saving grace will be earnings and even if there are good earnings, the bounce won't be high.
People will take opportunities to sell into the pop.

Then, we will clearly see Double Dip is in the works here.

Er..no, 50% here is for the Fibo retracement, that's approx Dow 8900 (not Dow 5500) or SPX 950, close enough for your Dow 9k call.
Dow 9k is a approx. 25% dip, not 20% dip from top (11205), clearly a bear market territory.

Next week game plan - Euro bank stress tests, expected to pass (or major disappointment). We may pop up a little but good to sell and for re-positioning shorts.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 4 2010, 09:51 PM

I'll be watching for Europe market, which is the tail end before the start for NYSE.

Europe market still green. Let see how it ends.

Well, we're coming off a bit of a oversold condition. Every bit of a lack of bad news will become good news.
Let the bulls take this north tonight! Need another week of so before earnings.

Also, the stress tests for Europe banks aren't that bad...

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 6 2010, 09:05 PM

Well, the concerns for them have eased off. That's why Europe rallies and Dow follows.

Anyway, back to US market.

The semi-conductors are doing pretty good. Have you all notice that during the past 2 months of general stocks decline, STEC and CRUS have been doing pretty good? I think STEC will eventually go back to $15 or $16 range.

Yes, it is all technical trades now.. since we're oversold, market wants to go up.. then get ready for bigger dive later.

Personally, I like to see it go back up to 1100 for better shorts at that level. It is possible if earnings are artificially ramped up.

No.. it was 9686.48 -46.05 -0.47%.

I guess, the MM already preview that it will reach 8300 soon.

Yahoo sometimes goof'ed up on many of its numbers when there is no trading on that day. It is misprint.
But, Dow was around 8300 July 2, 2009.

They're showing everyone that they're in control. Just watch it to bring it back up to kill the shorts.

Closing update:
Dow 9743.62 +57.14 +0.59%
Nasdaq 2093.88 +2.09 +0.10%
S&P500 1028.06 +5.48 +0.54%

See... they brought it back to green as a teaser, Dow up +57 pts, half of +100 pts at premarket.

We're still very volatile here. Be very cautious here.


This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 7 2010, 04:53 AM

zamans - is the subtitle for this v3 suppose to be 'double bottom coming' or 'double dip coming'?

epal - if you have noticed, there isn't any good news today other than the fact NYSE tries to ride off Europe and Asian gains. Then, things falters and falls apart after ISM data came out (53.8 versus 55 expected for June).




This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 7 2010, 08:50 AM

Actually, I'm thinking this is the last chance.. there will not be any more upside from here.