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 REIT V2, Real Estate Investment Trust

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TScherroy
post Jul 26 2011, 04:45 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Jul 26 2011, 03:00 PM)
Different platforms, different P/E calculations mar - i aint suicidal.

P/E on the platform's just one of several things i look at. If all else being equal, i'll take the lower P/E thank U very much  tongue.gif. Born the day BEFORE YESTERDAY  blush.gif (watashiwa not too bright but a bit brighter than the fellow born yesterday)


Added on July 26, 2011, 3:08 pm

Boss Cherroy - agreed.. unfortunately time's not on my side. Thus, for me most ratios are taken at "book / screen level" only - i process only the historical EPS, PER and ranking them ratios (sounds like brewing a witch's cauldron tongue.gif) to create a filter list + decide what's the value i'd buy at.

Heheh - my only saving grace is i do check from at least 3 sources/platform + at least 3 years' historical data (if not more), U know them accountants lar - cooking by them, interpreting by them, buta buta come up with more disclosures and weird calcs also by them  rclxub.gif At least they cant play much with 3 or more continuous years' of data (eg. ROE spikes due to asset liquidation).
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My advice,
Do not use PER to screen all the stocks out there and find out stock or choose stock to invest solely from the PER ratio.

Familiar the stock you are targeting on.

Some may have low PER, due to some reason, like distrust on the financial report/management, or various kind of reason.
Some have high PER, due to premium investors willing to pay for the stock, due to strong confidence about company future, prudent management etc.

If PER is the concern, I can bet red chips out there have the lowest PER until you can't believe, single digit, PER 5x, 6x, also got.
So based on PER, they are good to buy/invest?


Added on July 26, 2011, 4:47 pmSolely using PER to invest can lead one into dead end.

In a good market, or bull market.
Good stocks generally may not be cheap across.
Cheap PER, may not a good stock.

A & B in similar industry, but business wise segment can be different.
So A has PER 14, B has PER 15.
Invest in B better?

No, we never can conclude such thing.
A may have better cash flow than B.
B can do business more in credit term, or B's customers can be weaker than A, resulted high receivables and weak cash flow in B book.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jul 26 2011, 04:50 PM
TScherroy
post Jul 26 2011, 10:12 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Jul 26 2011, 07:24 PM)
Both SUNREIT & AXREIT - painful lar if looking for DY% (div paid vs cost paid)  tongue.gif.

AXREIT on my filter but so far, DY% wise, TWRREIT, BSDREIT seems to be leading (hehhe - note, i'm vested already in these 2).
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Axreit Q distribution now is about 4.x cents.
If we take 4.5 cents, annualised is 18 cents.

18/2.55 = 7.06%, which is about reasonable yield with a reit constantly showing growth and more dynamic in injecting new and good yield properties.

Somemore Axreit is more diversifed across, from commercial, office space to industrial.

While for Sunreit, yes, the yield is lower compared to others around 6.5%, same with CMMT.
TScherroy
post Jul 26 2011, 10:20 PM

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QUOTE(Evening @ Jul 26 2011, 10:13 PM)
Cherroy,
today i phone call the bank agent,
according to them, if i want to choose the option for reinvestment my dividend,
may need to charge RM15++ for the stamped duty, really ?

So now Axreit implement the optional whether we want to choose for cash distribution or reinvestment plan,
I heard bank agent do inform me that, every quarter we may still need to give decision to Axreit whether we
choose cash distribution or reinvestment back,
Wonder do u hv any idea on this ?
Very troublesome.
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I don't know about the issue of stamp duty.
You are using nominee account?

Yes, it is always optional, you need to inform them (axreit registrar) you want to reinvest.

Personally, I will not opt for reinvestment, odd lot popping up, which I hate the most,
and I want cash which give me more flexibility, whether to reinvest, or invest elsewhere. I would rather use the cash to reinvest myself in the open market, instead reinvestment that popping up odd lot here and there.

Cash is very important in a market uncertainty time, especially with lot of turbulence in the stock market for the late few years.

Above just my preference, not necessary right or wrong.
TScherroy
post Jul 27 2011, 04:52 PM

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Atrium first time proposed an acquisition.
TScherroy
post Jul 28 2011, 10:43 AM

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QUOTE(nasni @ Jul 28 2011, 10:19 AM)
Does anybody has info on  Axisreit recently?  they added  some warehse  something??

any1 pls???
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I taught this is old news already or no?

The previous private placement has already fund the acquisition.
TScherroy
post Aug 2 2011, 02:27 PM

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QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Aug 2 2011, 10:09 AM)
SGREITs trade at a higher premium than MREITs. if i recall around 3-5%. while here the yield is 6-8%
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One of reason also because of interest rate.

Sg interest rate only below 1%. So a yield 3-5% seems attractive enough. People are willing to buy at 3-5%.

But MY, FD rate already 3.x %, if reit yield also 3.x%, it makes reit very attractive, might as well park in FD, more secure, easier.
TScherroy
post Aug 2 2011, 04:13 PM

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QUOTE(kmarc @ Aug 2 2011, 03:52 PM)
Wah! Correct or not? biggrin.gif

Cherroy, which REIT(s) are you targeting now? I wanna follow smile.gif
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Oppss, not correct, should be unattractive.... my bad.

Last time (months ago) bought Qcap and Stareit already.

Now targeting dividend cheque coming only. tongue.gif
TScherroy
post Aug 3 2011, 12:20 AM

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QUOTE(whizzer @ Aug 2 2011, 11:25 PM)
I remember I saw the same thing happening for QCAP some time ago. (Thats when I bought in  tongue.gif ). The talk at time was the some foreign funds were selling. That's the thing about REIT, the volume is so small that the price will be destabilise if someone with huge holdings wants to exit. But they won't exit one go, so you see the case of the seller only willing to release at 0.91.
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Normally disposal take a week or a couple of weeks.
You will see volume spike up, and lot of buyer and seller each day, then volume shrink back again.

There is no point to let go in one go, as it can depress the price too significant, eventually affect their selling price only.

This the the problem when we have not enough liquidity.
But generally speaking, for retailers, a few hundred to a few thousand lot, it has no problem to let go in a day.
TScherroy
post Aug 7 2011, 09:20 AM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Aug 7 2011, 07:17 AM)
Use-less statistics of the day:
end 2008 early 2009 (bottom-ish of the crash & stablized), TWRREIT was at $0.85 to $0.90 with gross DY% of 10% (as shown on HLeB's DY% column)
VS
now 2011 TWRREIT last done on last Fri DJ crash was at $1.28 with gross DY% of 8% (as shown on HLeB's DY% column)

a. Seeing the $, whoa.. can drop like 33%+, calculated ($1.28 -$0.85)/$1.28

b. (a.) is unfair view
TWRREIT's highest was $1.43 before the 2008 crash and $0.83 at the bottom, thus taking the peak & bottom, that's 41%+ drop

c. A different view would be that at the bottom-mish, gross DY% was 10%-11%ish.
Now at a "peak" (dunno how high it can go yar), its gross DY% is 8%ish, still looks good to me (to hold) biggrin.gif

Now where's the fler who was asking ppl to sell off office REITs, quick lar, crumble the price ASAP. Dumbass value investor here wants to buy in at right price here  tongue.gif
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The office space concern is real.
As supply pace is faster than demand at least for the near future.

If we see office reit registered lower income, then we can see office related reit price goes lower, to match the expectation yield.

The 2008 crash, was because the fear of severe recession might result in lease cannot be renewed, refinance cost become expensive or difficult to be obtained.
There were reit (particularly overseas) especially those high leveraged one, unable to refinance resulted reit need to fire-sale their asset during the wrong time.

Reit is not a foolproof investment, there are risks involved as well.
Just because we saw reit recover in price and not having lease problem issue, despite the recession, we cannot conclude every reit will surely plunge and recover back.
There were reit that unable to attract tenants, or having difficulty in rental as well, not so good properties in the portfolio resulted dismay income.

I would say, don't be over-confidence.
Every reit performance is not the same. Every properties is not the same. Some properties are selling like hot cake, and tenants easy to find and can good yield.
Some properties may be sitting there, little people interested.
So it is better to evaluate the reit underlying portfolio properties, their location etc.

As even office space may face supply>demand, it doesn't mean all office space rental/lease is totally bad. There are still location people prefer and highly demanded.
Same with boom time, there are still properties that perform not so good during good time.

TScherroy
post Aug 9 2011, 03:31 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Aug 9 2011, 03:28 PM)
Be careful - the net yield is after minussing-out the witholding tax from the above levels. I believed it's 25% from the above.
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witholding tax - 10%
Not 25%.

Yes, those published is gross yield, the net yield need to discount 10%.
TScherroy
post Aug 9 2011, 09:37 PM

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QUOTE(kabyss87 @ Aug 9 2011, 04:15 PM)
Hi guys & gals.. i was wondering.. Do you guys consider the timing to buy REIT counters?

Eg: just like normal stocks need to look at charts to determine possibly the lowest point to enter to maximize gain.
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Buy when the yield is attractive enough (personally)
TScherroy
post Aug 10 2011, 09:47 PM

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QUOTE(rayloo @ Aug 10 2011, 06:02 PM)
People who invest in them (So is CMMT) expect higher yield will be generated in near future. So they do not mind paying higher for now to acquire them. Like CMMT recently absorb another mall ECM. Basically they buy for the future yield.
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I partly disagree on this. smile.gif
CMMT and Sunreit has more premium over their price because of its liquidity and stable outlook for mall retailers lease business.
Size and liquidity is important for some instituitional funds.
They will not consider or least consider if there is not enough liquidity of the reit as when they need a few ten million time, they can dispose easily.

Most lease is at least 1 year or above, cannot expect too much upside in the income side for near term.
New properties and acquisition may not boost yield in current situation, because properties valuation is high or escalating lately few year, nobody is going to dispose properties cheaply in order buyer to enjoy good yield.
While rental market generally cannot keep up the pace of properties valuation escalating.


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