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KUALA LUMPUR, May 24 — The head of a local research house has warned that the nation faces a possible power crunch in 2017 if gas subsidies are not removed.
OSK Research Sdn Bhd's head of research Chris Eng said that Petronas could decline to extend the gas supply agreements (GSA) with independent power producers (IPPs) if gas subsidies are not removed, potentially causing IPPs to stop operation and removing 4,105 MW worth of electricity from the system and dropping reserve margins to as low as 13 per cent.
Petronas spent RM19.7 billion on natural gas subsidies in 2008 of which subsidies for IPPs amounted to RM13.8 billion, a 17.9 per cent increase from the previous year.
Eng noted that even if Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) and MMC Corporation Berhad expand their power plants at Janamanjung and Tanjung Bin by 2,000 MW and 800 MW, it would be insufficient to cover the shortfall.
“The nation’s reserve margin would fall below 30 per cent in TNB in the financial year 2014 and would fall below 20 per cent in 2017 which would be disastrous,” said Eng in a report today.
He added that if subsidies were removed however, Petronas could construct a regasification plant to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) and renew its GSA with the IPPs.
Together with the plant expansions at Janamanjung and Tanjung Bin, Eng said that TNB’s reserve margin would dip below 30 per cent in 2014 and 2015 but climb back up above 30 per cent in 2016.
He added that given the strong electricity demand over the next seven years and the looming expiry of the GSAs and the power purchase agreements between IPPs and TNB, it was imperative for gas subsidies to be removed to incentivise Petronas to import LNG to make up for shortages.
Figures provided by OSK Research show that IPPs possess about 47 per cent of the electricity generation capacity in Peninsular Malaysia and natural gas was the dominant fuel source — accounting for 55 per cent of electricity generation capacity.
Eng noted however that the non-removal of subsidies was a worst case scenario and it was more likely that a long term schedule for gas subsidy reduction would be announced and gas subsidies would drop to zero over 10 to 15 years, similar to what was announced in 2008 but was not enforced after March 2009.
He added that he was upbeat on the power sector given the likelihood of an electricity tariff hike and subsidy removal as utility companies stood to benefit.
The cabinet is meeting this week in a bid to slash subsidy spending that has more than doubled since 2006 and last year helped push the country to its biggest budget deficit in over 20 years.
According to official government figures, subsidy spending rose to RM24.5 billion in 2009, 15.3 per cent of total federal government spending and more than double the RM10.1 billion it spent in 2006.
OSK Research Sdn Bhd's head of research Chris Eng said that Petronas could decline to extend the gas supply agreements (GSA) with independent power producers (IPPs) if gas subsidies are not removed, potentially causing IPPs to stop operation and removing 4,105 MW worth of electricity from the system and dropping reserve margins to as low as 13 per cent.
Petronas spent RM19.7 billion on natural gas subsidies in 2008 of which subsidies for IPPs amounted to RM13.8 billion, a 17.9 per cent increase from the previous year.
Eng noted that even if Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) and MMC Corporation Berhad expand their power plants at Janamanjung and Tanjung Bin by 2,000 MW and 800 MW, it would be insufficient to cover the shortfall.
“The nation’s reserve margin would fall below 30 per cent in TNB in the financial year 2014 and would fall below 20 per cent in 2017 which would be disastrous,” said Eng in a report today.
He added that if subsidies were removed however, Petronas could construct a regasification plant to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) and renew its GSA with the IPPs.
Together with the plant expansions at Janamanjung and Tanjung Bin, Eng said that TNB’s reserve margin would dip below 30 per cent in 2014 and 2015 but climb back up above 30 per cent in 2016.
He added that given the strong electricity demand over the next seven years and the looming expiry of the GSAs and the power purchase agreements between IPPs and TNB, it was imperative for gas subsidies to be removed to incentivise Petronas to import LNG to make up for shortages.
Figures provided by OSK Research show that IPPs possess about 47 per cent of the electricity generation capacity in Peninsular Malaysia and natural gas was the dominant fuel source — accounting for 55 per cent of electricity generation capacity.
Eng noted however that the non-removal of subsidies was a worst case scenario and it was more likely that a long term schedule for gas subsidy reduction would be announced and gas subsidies would drop to zero over 10 to 15 years, similar to what was announced in 2008 but was not enforced after March 2009.
He added that he was upbeat on the power sector given the likelihood of an electricity tariff hike and subsidy removal as utility companies stood to benefit.
The cabinet is meeting this week in a bid to slash subsidy spending that has more than doubled since 2006 and last year helped push the country to its biggest budget deficit in over 20 years.
According to official government figures, subsidy spending rose to RM24.5 billion in 2009, 15.3 per cent of total federal government spending and more than double the RM10.1 billion it spent in 2006.
Jun 4 2010, 07:48 AM
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