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 Stock Market V41, OCTOBEAR vs OCTOBULL - Who's d winner?

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cherroy
post Oct 7 2009, 12:06 AM

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QUOTE(claricecmw @ Oct 7 2009, 12:00 AM)
Forgive me for my ignorance. Any reason why there are only 2 plantation counters - KLK n IOI, but then both carry so much weight on the FBM KLCI, as in 1/3?  blink.gif
*
Sime, PPB, all are super heavy one. Not to mentioned some part in Genting as well.

I don't have the exact figure but last time 100 stock KLCI, it did consist about 1/3. It should differ too much then for the new 30 stocks.

Added on October 7, 2009, 12:07 am
QUOTE(debbieyss @ Oct 7 2009, 12:02 AM)
so now is the good time to buy in US Dollars?
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USD is like toxic asset right now. laugh.gif




This post has been edited by cherroy: Oct 7 2009, 12:07 AM
cherroy
post Oct 7 2009, 12:30 AM

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QUOTE(debbieyss @ Oct 7 2009, 12:11 AM)
What is Fed/Treasury?
Who are they?
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Fed? Who are they?

The one that have access to USD money printer machine. biggrin.gif

They control the monetory policy of USD eventually dictate how US economy.
cherroy
post Oct 7 2009, 01:02 AM

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QUOTE(Mikiyo @ Oct 7 2009, 12:32 AM)
on the FED issue, i guess the US will have to rise their interest rates right? macroeconomics policies lol...high interest rates in a country makes the assets more valuable to investors smile.gif thus inflow of capital into the country and rises the exchange rate of the USD...i guess bernanke will have no choice but to raise the exchange rate as soon as possible
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If Fed raise rate now, it mean higher mortgages rate, higher loan rate for companies which increase the cost of business. Higher interest rate could mean more default for bank loan as well. Fed cannot raise rate right now, next year when economy is more solid may be, but not now.

If Fed raise rate tomorrow, Market will be plummeting 300 points. tongue.gif Not the like AUD raise rate today situation.

Higher interest rate is stock market enemy because both are in competition for your money. If FD interest rate is 10%, you still want to invest in stock market that can potential gain 10% pa? while standing a chance to lose capita with stock marketl, which FD doesn't, it doesn't make sense.
cherroy
post Oct 7 2009, 02:40 PM

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Bursa cannot cancel the order, they only can cancel the order/transaction it those error is caused by its server or matching issue.

The error come from the broker keyed in order, not at Bursa side.

As if Bursa allow cancelling order that matched, next time a lot of parties also request for it.
Whenever buy too high, request for cancelling the transaction. rclxms.gif

I don't see where is the conspiracy theory come from. Manipulation or purposely jack up closing price may be (which is norm, especially on book closing date for window dressing etc), but not on conspiracy theory.
cherroy
post Oct 7 2009, 03:03 PM

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QUOTE(rockroll @ Oct 7 2009, 02:52 PM)
The way I view the conspiracy is from the trade system perspective.
The price is high jacked to the level after the pre-closing session.
Suppose, if no matched trade in the pre-closing session, the final closing trade price should be the last done price.
But, the system failure or "bugs" allow the different price pop up.
So, this is causing some possibilities that there will be new future cases coming in beyond our expectation.
The Bursa Trade system is not fool-proof.

The case not happen to most of the active counters that have a lot of queue in the bid-spread but happen to the thin volume counter.
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The order was keyed-in during 4.45-4.50 period which determine the TCP, so if someone flock the system with high price order like KLK case, TCP needs to be at 17.00 as buyer at 17.00 outmuscled the seller side.

Added on October 7, 2009, 3:07 pm
QUOTE(rockroll @ Oct 7 2009, 03:00 PM)
But the case is, I feel Bursa need to fix the loophole.
Or else, people tend to abuse it.
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Human is flexible, system is rigid, no matter how system is, human if really want to manipulate, they will find a way.

Just like we often see huge buy Q in some goreng stocks, which sometimes is fake one (withdraw the orders when starting to match time), but Bursa cannot stop people from keying order on the Q side, even you want to Q for fun also can. tongue.gif

The one for all solution is to improve the stock liquidity, when there are high liquidity, which lot of instituitional trade around, then you cannot manipulate the price easily. KLK was done at 17.00 because there is little seller around.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Oct 7 2009, 03:07 PM
cherroy
post Oct 7 2009, 03:10 PM

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QUOTE(rockroll @ Oct 7 2009, 03:08 PM)
Well, I notice the trade done on 4.52pm which was after TCP.
Unluckily, I didn't capture the screen.  doh.gif
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The transaction was done at 4.52pm, quite correct, but TCP has been set at 17.00 in the first place which occur on 4.50pm. After 4.50 pm you can only transact at one price only, ie. the TCP.

TCP was determined during 4.45-4.50pm, through buyer order vs seller order. If there is no one keyed in 17.00, TCP would be 13.68, or the last transaction price before 4.45pm.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Oct 7 2009, 03:12 PM
cherroy
post Oct 7 2009, 03:28 PM

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QUOTE(rockroll @ Oct 7 2009, 03:25 PM)
Well said Aurora97, we never know this might be god's hand.  biggrin.gif
Anyway, it happens. So, bear in mind that we can be either who benifited or loser.
We need to keep the market as fair as we can.
Or else, how long can the market sustain the players if there are bully on the rules loophole?
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Since the introduction of KLCI FBM30, the KLCI no longer reflect the overall market condition, so the index is already not so "fair" in the first place. whistling.gif

We also see lot of 1 batang at the end of each month, to prop up/down the KLCI which affecting the settlemet price a few points as well.

Added on October 7, 2009, 3:31 pm
QUOTE(rockroll @ Oct 7 2009, 03:16 PM)
If the TCP agreed on 17.00, the transaction will be carried on 4.50pm.
But it was on 4.52pm, and the KLCI index was fixed on 4.50pm.
After the KLK transaction, the Bursa have to clarify and announce the KLCI was inflated to higher level at end of the day.
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I don't know the reason of the transaction matched was time at 4.52pm. Only 2 possibilities

Either the system/software bug which TCP was 13.68, but matching is done at 17.00 after someone keyed in 17.00 which is unlikely, as if it is the case, cancellation order would be allowed, just like last time when Bursa's server hang due to limit down after 308.
or
this could be the reason of delay
From thestar,
QUOTE
With regards to Monday’s incident, the market order that was keyed in matched with all the other ‘sell’ orders in the order book up to the highest price available until the quantity of the order was fulfilled.”

He added that the market order also triggered the “reserve” status in which matching would be temporarily halted for dealers to take stock of the prices in the order book.

“Basically, this is a cooling-off period to allow dealers to examine the orders they have put in vis-a-vis the current prices in the order book,” he said, pointing out that in this regard, the affected party (the broker who made the bid) did not withdraw the order when the order was in “reserve” status.

“As such, the exchange takes this order as a valid order,” he added.




This post has been edited by cherroy: Oct 7 2009, 03:31 PM
cherroy
post Oct 8 2009, 02:42 PM

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QUOTE(zWinceZz @ Oct 8 2009, 02:23 PM)
This one is quite interesting posted on CNA forum:

Lehman Died Because Warren Buffett Didn't Know How To Check Voicemail (BRK)

Warren Buffett has always said he's not so big on technology.
Bloomberg: Billionaire Warren Buffett said he was approached a year ago about insuring Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s assets before the investment bank filed for bankruptcy and didn’t receive financial documents he requested.
Buffett was asked about backing Lehman while Barclays Plc weighed a bid for the firm, he said today at a conference. He didn’t receive the information that he requested be sent to him by facsimile and later learned that there was a voice mail that he missed because he didn’t know how to retrieve it, Buffett said.
As Karen Tumulty notes on Swampland, who knows what would have happened if Buffett had gotten the message:
I caught up with Buffett [after the Fortune summit], and asked him whether, in retrospect, he might have gone for the deal. He pulled the simple little Samsung phone out of his pocket and pondered it for a moment. It's entirely possible, he suggested. "I don't know."
And we never will.
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This is quite old story then.

I don't know this story for fun or not. But I bet WB won't buy Lehman as well, as this is not his style. He only buy solid, profitable company based on his track record and philosophy. He won't buy at ailing company. That's why he bought Goldman, the cream of crop of investment bank.

For the crisis, save Lehman or not story has passed and forgotten, especially for equities market, as we are now recovered back to pre-Lehman crisis, who care anymore, people memory just like "RAM" only, easily forgotten. whistling.gif

The crisis actually make him a lot of moeny through Goldman, now around USD180+, which when he bought time (preferred share that carry 10% yield pa!) which cost at around USD100. So he is making big buck from the crisis. Without the crisis, Goldman won't pay 10% yield and its share won't plunge below USD100.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Oct 8 2009, 02:43 PM
cherroy
post Oct 8 2009, 02:58 PM

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QUOTE(lklatmy @ Oct 8 2009, 02:53 PM)
Cool...................friend.. biggrin.gif

New rumours,I stress,rumours,CIMB will takeover Maybank,

I suggest a new name....CIMMAY bank.. laugh.gif  laugh.gif
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If rumour is true, Maybank share should move.

So if believing can bang on Maybank.
Just my 0.0002 cents. I don't hold any responsibility on the comment. tongue.gif
cherroy
post Oct 8 2009, 03:23 PM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Oct 8 2009, 03:14 PM)
haha.... suddenly rumours flying around....
buy on rumours!  flex.gif

take over and merge are different right ?
so "take over" here means be the biggest shareholder ??

who is MBB biggest shareholder ? khazanah  or PNB ? will they sell the shares ?

wow... i hope they keep the tiger logo~~ still remember when i was young that time got yippie club haha...
good also... maybank seriously need new blood and make over...
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Not possible for mandatory takeover offer, too much money involved, at least must spend 30-40 billion if CIMB wants to do it. If merger may be.

QUOTE(chyaw @ Oct 8 2009, 03:19 PM)
You buy CI futures???
DJ future is now very green +86  icon_rolleyes.gif
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DJ futures has been very green since US market closed this morning after Alcoa reported better than expected earning result.
cherroy
post Oct 8 2009, 03:45 PM

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The merger is not so simple actually.

Also the merger might not good for local banking market as well as for ordinary consumer like us, as they will totally monopoly and outmuscled others already, no one can compete with them.
cherroy
post Oct 8 2009, 03:48 PM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Oct 8 2009, 03:14 PM)
haha.... suddenly rumours flying around....
buy on rumours!  flex.gif

take over and merge are different right ?
so "take over" here means be the biggest shareholder ??

Taken from latest annual report..
1. Amanah Raya Nominees (Tempatan) Sdn Bhd 45.90%
(Skim Amanah Saham Bumiputera)
2. Employees Provident Fund Board 11.95%
3. Permodalan Nasional Berhad 6.63%

wow... i hope they keep the tiger logo~~ still remember when i was young that time got yippie club haha...
good also... maybank seriously need new blood and make over...
*
Take-over and merger is totally different. Take-over, CIMB need to fork out money to buy the shares from Maybank shareholders.

Merger - more likely involving share swap without money transaction.

QUOTE(chyaw @ Oct 8 2009, 03:26 PM)
Cherroy! I'm curious. Will you buy CIMB shares for long term???
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My criteria is simple, good dividend >5-6% steadily throughout.


cherroy
post Oct 8 2009, 03:55 PM

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Chyaw,
Got choice,
I preferred CIMB without Maybank inclusion/merger.

I did bought CIMB before 1.7x or around 1.80. icon_rolleyes.gif (1997 crisis time). Sold at around 7-8, forget liao.

CIMB is a good brand name back then, that's why they opt the name CIMB.


cherroy
post Oct 8 2009, 04:07 PM

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QUOTE(protonw @ Oct 8 2009, 04:04 PM)
Buy anak, negative premium ie 0.935+1.21=2.145 add some conversion charges.

Of course when you buy a lot, there is  lot of saving lor tongue.gif
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Anak tak ala dividend, which around 10 cents pa. So if 5 years maturity time, 50 cents disadvantage if mothershare doesn't move, that's why it is in negative premium, market knew it.
cherroy
post Oct 8 2009, 04:25 PM

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QUOTE(chyaw @ Oct 8 2009, 04:12 PM)
I agree with protonw. Since you want to buy the mothershare, buy warrant and then convert them when it announce div.  rclxm9.gif
You can convert bit by bit according to your requirement.
Protonw is the except in warrant conversion.  brows.gif
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Just remind, you won't entitle the div in this case, need to wait next round div. Dividend won't be given to the newly converted share, need to wait next round dividend.

If really want to convert one, straight away buy the mothershare, as valuation is as same, save the hassle.

Warrant purpose is to take advantage the gearing, ie. small knife cut big tree. If buy to convert straight away, there is nothing to gain except there is significant negative premium.
cherroy
post Oct 9 2009, 12:17 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Oct 8 2009, 11:45 PM)
not crazy, because ECB and BOE (UK) hold the interest movement few min ago. This propel NYSE/DJIA simply by 30 points. Wahlau eh.

Since USD is cheap (like JPY) last time when ppl crazy go for LONG YEN, now is US. The low interest now sparks the EQUITY market. Many arguments can be found online on this. So DJIA at 10,000 will happen this month!!
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This month? not this week or next week meh? tongue.gif

There are lot of expectation around

I have come across lot of headline like
BDI is expected to surge beyond 4000
Oil price is expected to surge beyond USD85
Economy is expected to grow at 2-3% on next Q
Gold price is expected to surge to 1500

Whether the expectation turn into reality, jury still out there. Only time will tell so a waiting game.

Even AUD raised interest rate, equity market also look it at super good news, which in ordinary sense, has nothing to do with US stock market at all.

So whatever news come out, the bull will swallow it the turn into good news.

Job loss 250K, less bad, good news
Job loss 100K, very good, good news

Inventory level down, good news, mean producers will able to produce more afterwards
Inventory level up, good news, means consumers are back prompt producer to produce more, or more job for factory worker.

It sums up the market sentiment. laugh.gif


cherroy
post Oct 9 2009, 01:32 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Oct 9 2009, 09:58 AM)
i have a question about TAE

"TA Enterprise Berhad (TAE) is on track to list its property arm, TA Global on the 23 Nov, 2009 which includes a rights issue of 270m new shares to its [B]single largest shareholder TAE at an issue price of 50 sen.[/b] Current shareholders of TAE are entitled of 3 TA Global shares and 3 ICPS via dividend in specie upon lisiting or taking 55% stake in TA Global. Based on the offer price, the floatation is expected to raise up to RM230m to TAE."

which means current TAE shareholders have to fork out additional money to buy the TA Global at 50 sens each?
*
Note -> the right issue is for one shareholder only
cherroy
post Oct 9 2009, 01:35 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Oct 9 2009, 06:43 AM)
With USD falling... heck, as expected everyone jumping back into equities.
Yes, I've taken off my bear fur and took on the bull horns.

When DOW reach 10K or higher, I'll short.  laugh.gif

This round of growing asset bubble is shorter than one thinks.. just be sure to have a chair when the music stops.  nod.gif
*
The one can short and can make big buck through short is on USD. icon_idea.gif

A safe place for short kaki. cool.gif
cherroy
post Oct 9 2009, 01:36 PM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Oct 9 2009, 01:35 PM)
what the effect of PAR value change?

TIME ENGR Code 4456.

Par value reduced from RM1.00 > RM0.20
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Your 5 shares left with 1 share only.

Capital reduction.
cherroy
post Oct 9 2009, 02:26 PM

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QUOTE(htt @ Oct 9 2009, 02:14 PM)
Maybe wrong leh... seems like 5 shares still 5 shares, just par value changed... hmm.gif
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I don't look at its details, just merely look at statement par value reduction, so please bare with me on this.

It can be others source as well through debt restructuring issue. But for sure, it is detrimental effect for existing shareholders with capital reduction or so called par value reduction.

Par value reduction only won't be detrimental if it is involving share split.
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