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 Stock Market V40, Do you believe in October Myth?

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David_Brent
post Sep 17 2009, 01:01 AM

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QUOTE(coffeelover1975 @ Sep 17 2009, 12:56 AM)
I believe FA is more reliable than TA.
FA is based on facts, TA is based on readings that twists & turns the facts but provide you a teeny-wee bit guideline.
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The problem is that so many Chinese guys are in love with charts....part of the culture and Feng Shui culture that a chart with a graph or a curve is much more convincing psychologically than FA analysis which requires a much broader perspective.

No offence...just my 2 cents....... notworthy.gif
David_Brent
post Sep 17 2009, 01:04 AM

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QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Sep 17 2009, 01:03 AM)
laugh.gif
should i agree?
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After a few months in that hell-hole you are in now - inevitably - you will!!!! laugh.gif icon_idea.gif notworthy.gif

You are there to be "EDUCATED"....... laugh.gif

This post has been edited by David_Brent: Sep 17 2009, 01:05 AM
David_Brent
post Sep 17 2009, 02:05 AM

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Uncle Jones look after us:
9,790.57 +107.16 (1.11%)
rclxm9.gif


Added on September 17, 2009, 2:07 am
QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Sep 17 2009, 01:58 AM)
education need tuition fees right? brows.gif
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Very true - and it's not getting cheaper....
No deflation in the education business..... hmm.gif

Maybe I should buy HELP...... hmm.gif

This post has been edited by David_Brent: Sep 17 2009, 02:13 AM
David_Brent
post Sep 21 2009, 01:59 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Sep 18 2009, 04:45 PM)
David, some news on Oilcrap

 
3697    OILCORP    OILCORP BHD 
Default in Payment under Practice Note 1/2001 

Oilcorp Berhad (OILCORP or the Company)
-  Default in Payment under Practice Note 1/2001 of the Listing Requirements of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad.


The Company wishes to announce that the Company has failed to meet its interest payment of RM1,643,806.85 due and payable on 17 September 2009 in respect of the Facility Agreement dated 9 September 2005 between EON Bank Berhad, CAPONE Berhad and OILCORP (Facility Agreement).

they have money issue huh. hmm.gif
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WAH!

I go away for a few days' holiday and look what happen flex.gif
Oilcrap totally FUBAR!! shakehead.gif
David_Brent
post Sep 21 2009, 09:42 PM

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QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Sep 21 2009, 06:43 PM)
it'll reach your breakeven someday!  flex.gif holding powarhhh
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Thanks mate! nod.gif
That makes me feel so much better!
Luckily it is only a tiny fraction of my ENORMOUS portfolio! laugh.gif
icon_rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by David_Brent: Sep 21 2009, 09:42 PM
David_Brent
post Sep 21 2009, 10:33 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Sep 21 2009, 10:26 PM)
whoa today regional market aint performaing well even tho dow closed in green on friday.

now DJIA in red, maybe we are spared tongue.gif

or maybe we have double jeopardy on wednesday sweat.gif
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Wednesday = Shopping Day! icon_idea.gif
David_Brent
post Sep 22 2009, 01:50 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 22 2009, 10:37 AM)
Oilcorp probably will sink kau kau due to payment default issue, which 1 million is relative speaking peanut for a company has 900+ milllion under the balance sheet with 400+ million of receivables.
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Exactly.
So, what do you think is going on? The note they defaulted on is unsecured at 7.15%. Maybe it's a question of won't pay rather than can't pay? hmm.gif
Also - I am confused how they can have RM400million + receivables with 500 days debtors.
What on earth are they playing at I wonder hmm.gif
David_Brent
post Sep 22 2009, 04:20 PM

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QUOTE(coffeelover1975 @ Sep 22 2009, 04:19 PM)
could be the receivables are someone dear & familiar to them brows.gif
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That had crossed my mind! laugh.gif
David_Brent
post Sep 22 2009, 11:46 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Sep 22 2009, 09:56 PM)
DJIA at 9,800 now

the feels good feeling is getting stronger drool.gif

i missed KLSE after the two days break, ahh back to work on tomolo!
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Hope I can find something to BUY tomorrow....got a long shopping list drool.gif
David_Brent
post Sep 23 2009, 02:44 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 23 2009, 02:36 PM)
See it from opposite direction, it means opportunity.  brows.gif
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If it goes into the 14.xx range I shall pounce! drool.gif
David_Brent
post Sep 23 2009, 02:59 PM

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Seems like the broader market getting hammered today....most of my portfolio red today blink.gif
David_Brent
post Sep 23 2009, 03:58 PM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Sep 23 2009, 03:23 PM)
just matched 200gram of rambutan at 15.100.... more to come below that.... this one is first wave only  brows.gif
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rclxms.gif
Trying my luck at the tree now....
David_Brent
post Sep 23 2009, 04:16 PM

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QUOTE(mo_meng @ Sep 23 2009, 04:13 PM)
planning to bet on oilcorp .. how u all think? worth a bet?
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As long as you realise that the odds are loaded against you, the roulette wheel fixed and the cards are all marked...... laugh.gif
David_Brent
post Sep 23 2009, 04:17 PM

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QUOTE(yang yang @ Sep 23 2009, 04:15 PM)
Waiting to pluck RED rambutan at RM14++
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Yeah...I cancelled my queue at 15.08...think it may have further to fall..... hmm.gif
David_Brent
post Sep 23 2009, 04:22 PM

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Speaking as an existing OILCRAP shareholder, the sudden interest in this excellent counter is very encouraging.... brows.gif
David_Brent
post Sep 23 2009, 04:35 PM

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QUOTE(chyaw @ Sep 23 2009, 04:23 PM)

Added on September 23, 2009, 4:27 pmBTW, I just bought Fajar at 1.18. Going to hold it for long term.
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rclxms.gif Excellent choice - they just sent me a very nice divvy cheque last week drool.gif
David_Brent
post Sep 23 2009, 04:39 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 23 2009, 04:37 PM)
sweat.gif 

Major shareholders + directors have been dumping their stake ceased become substaintial shareholders + resignation of independent director + default in interest payment + financial result has been showing significant decline over the past 5 years (constantly drop down even though economy is booming and oil price sky-rocketing during 2006-2008 prior before crisis set in) + cashflow difficulty + potential PN17 if the default issue not being resolved.

So above are your bet risk.  laugh.gif

Don't mean discouraging or comment good or bad on it. Judge your own.

PS: The stock can jump if the company resolve the default issue and cashflow issue, but still 1 million default is a relative small sum, it is puzzling and troubling why company default it, this is one of major clue or puzzle that is very important.
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...but, on the other hand, they DO own the Tiara Beach Resort...... laugh.gif
David_Brent
post Sep 23 2009, 04:43 PM

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QUOTE(aurora97 @ Sep 23 2009, 04:40 PM)
Perhaps its caused by the assurance given by the company that its going to pay the interest due, further explaining why they were unable to pay the due is an added plus (to some investors at least) i.e. receipt of "Large Receivables" delayed.

the selling of shares by its major s/hs probably is just a bid to cause panic, wouldnt be suprised if the same ppl (or proxies) came back in at a significantly lower price?
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That's one 'conspiracy theory' that crossed my mind. But there are a number of inexplicable issues that need to be clarified. OILFAB is still getting good contracts - they got 51% of that. The receivables issue is the main question mark IMHO.


Added on September 23, 2009, 4:45 pm
QUOTE(cherroy @ Sep 23 2009, 04:43 PM)
A company that has 400+ mil receivable and 900 million in balance sheet cannot take out a peanut of 1 million loan/OD or any finance facilities to pay off the interest payment? is something I cannot comprehend.
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Spot on. That's what's confusing me.
At the current share price the market values the entire business at around RM60million. The break-up value is worth way more than that, surely?

This post has been edited by David_Brent: Sep 23 2009, 04:45 PM
David_Brent
post Sep 23 2009, 04:47 PM

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QUOTE(aurora97 @ Sep 23 2009, 04:42 PM)
Added.

that said it really depends how the interest payment is structured, whether payable month/quarterly/yearly.

If payable monthly - probably one can be forgiven

If payable yearly - some cause for concern..

than again we are not privy to the facility agreement.
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Monthly over five years to Aeon and CapOne IIRC. 50 million at 7.15% from 2005 if I'm not mistaken.
David_Brent
post Sep 23 2009, 05:00 PM

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QUOTE(aurora97 @ Sep 23 2009, 04:55 PM)
30 days grace period..

So the existing interest of 1m would have to be + default interest + interest accrued to date of payment (4 existing interest) +/- it would probably be more or less balloning up to the region 2m.

that would be interesting..

the interest which is due in Oct 09 will also be falling due (shud be the 17th of each month)..

+/- OilCorp will have to fork out about 4m in interest alone.

S/hers arent going to be too enthusiastic about this.
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Definitely something fishy going on....will have to wait and see absent any explanation from the company... hmm.gif

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