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 Stock Market V38, Return of the B...

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danmooncake
post Aug 19 2009, 10:21 PM

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QUOTE(tessei @ Aug 19 2009, 10:17 PM)
If you’ve not yet gone short, don’t worry. Tomorrow’s  (Thursday) performance gaming due to options expiration could very well offer you a good entry point.

You see, August’s options expire on Friday. Because of this, traders who are underwater on their positions will try to push the market higher in order to close out their positions for a gain. Historically the day before expiration (Thursday) sees the largest market jumps as traders pile in pushing the market higher.

In light of this, It would not at all be surprised if the S&P 500 rallies hard tomorrow. When and if it does, you should get a good entry point to establish some shorts. Once options expiration is over after Friday’s close, the fundamentals should take hold of the market again, pushing stocks lower.
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Right now! OpEx is witching day. Good volatility Good time to make Day Trade!
VIX pumping high on this day!
SKY 1809
post Aug 19 2009, 10:22 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Aug 19 2009, 10:07 PM)
DMC, you scare the bear away huh.

dow is crawling back to green soon... apa ini tongue.gif

i tot i would expect a 3-digit loss neh.
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only the General Bear is shorting.

The Bear Army refused to take orders from General Bear.

Mutiny hmm.gif
espree
post Aug 19 2009, 10:22 PM

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Mortgage Applications Rise as Rates Plunge

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32472558
David_Brent
post Aug 19 2009, 10:22 PM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Aug 19 2009, 10:13 PM)
yah all eyes on China now...

so my question is... how low we expect China to go ?
I remember Adam mentioned about breaking 3000, and now we are at 2785..

Unlikely to retrace to nov08 lvl which was 1800+. maybe Fallback to march 09 level @ 2071 ? any hints ?  hmm.gif

Euro and US not too bad tonight...
just some bad earning reports when i was watching bloomberg just now..
tomolo will have employment figure...  brows.gif
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The falls in the Shanghai market do not reflect the health of the broader Chinese economy.

Rocketing and slumping has always been a characteristic of the Shanghai market. It took only one year for the index to rise from 1,664 to 6,124 points and vice versa.

The Shanghai exchange is all but closed to foreign investors, while Chinese investors have few other options to place their money, since they cannot buy overseas shares.

Consequently, this exchange is extremely volatile,
tessei
post Aug 19 2009, 10:31 PM

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China is Going to Blow Up

Authority in Beijing were walking in Alan Greenspan's footsteps in trying to inflate their country back to prosperity. Just as Greenspan held interest rates at historically low levels for far too long a time, inflating the housing bubble, China has done much the same.

Chinese bank lenders have been saddled with quotas and "must lend" mandates little different than the free-for-all "we'll lend to anyone" mentality that fueled the housing bubble. China's version of the NINJA loan (no income, no job, no assets) is to throw sacks full of money at the collapsing manufacturer or exporter in the hopes of sustaining the unsustainable. And just as Greenspan's easy money spigot fueled an orgy of real estate speculation, Beijing's flood of cash has fueled an orgy of business speculation, with hundreds of billions in lent funds flowing into speculative commodity stockpiling and the Shanghai A shares market.



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danmooncake
post Aug 19 2009, 10:31 PM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Aug 19 2009, 10:22 PM)
The falls in the Shanghai market do not reflect the health of the broader Chinese economy.

Rocketing and slumping has always been a characteristic of the Shanghai market. It took only one year for the index to rise from 1,664 to 6,124 points and vice versa.

The Shanghai exchange is all but closed to foreign investors, while Chinese investors have few other options to place their money, since they cannot buy overseas shares.

Consequently, this exchange is extremely volatile,
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True. The Sharks (the govt run companies) are more deadly in China than in Malaysia.
They can manufacture news and financial statements as easily as they make toys in their factories.
China can legislate any company into non-existence even foreign MNC company. Everyone watching
RioTinto and see how they're going to play with the giant Panda on the recent issue.

Therefore, most of us we don't trade China directly..but just use other tools that have China play indirectly.

Disclosure: Your truly current play: FXI, TCK, HAO, CDII tongue.gif







David_Brent
post Aug 19 2009, 10:35 PM

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QUOTE(tessei @ Aug 19 2009, 10:31 PM)
China is Going to Blow Up

Authority in Beijing were walking in Alan Greenspan's footsteps in trying to inflate their country back to prosperity. Just as Greenspan held interest rates at historically low levels for far too long a time, inflating the housing bubble, China has done much the same.

Chinese bank lenders have been saddled with quotas and "must lend" mandates little different than the free-for-all "we'll lend to anyone" mentality that fueled the housing bubble. China's version of the NINJA loan (no income, no job, no assets) is to throw sacks full of money at the collapsing manufacturer or exporter in the hopes of sustaining the unsustainable. And just as Greenspan's easy money spigot fueled an orgy of real estate speculation, Beijing's flood of cash has fueled an orgy of business speculation, with hundreds of billions in lent funds flowing into speculative commodity stockpiling and the Shanghai A shares market.
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Interesting article you quoted.
One difference that springs to mind is that China has CASH and the US has DEBT.

Can you provide a link so we can read the complete article?
danmooncake
post Aug 19 2009, 10:41 PM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Aug 19 2009, 10:35 PM)
Interesting article you quoted.
One difference that springs to mind is that China has CASH and the US has DEBT.
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Funny that you said that. Most Americans feel that since they're already in DEBT,
they have nothing else to lose but the DEBT itself. They just walk away.
Chinese is losing sleep over their invested and hard earned cash because it is decreasing in value. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Aug 19 2009, 10:41 PM
tessei
post Aug 19 2009, 10:47 PM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Aug 19 2009, 10:35 PM)
Interesting article you quoted.
One difference that springs to mind is that China has CASH and the US has DEBT.

Can you provide a link so we can read the complete article?
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refer

http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/taipa...68&g=181&r=Milo

But the one i highlighted they quoted from members of 'Macro Trader' which has been published 4 weeks ago.

Found their webz.

http://www.themacrotrader.com/

This post has been edited by tessei: Aug 19 2009, 10:59 PM
David_Brent
post Aug 19 2009, 10:52 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Aug 19 2009, 10:41 PM)
Funny that you said that. Most Americans feel that since they're already in DEBT,
they have nothing else to lose but the DEBT itself. They just walk away.
Chinese is losing sleep over their invested and hard earned cash because it is decreasing in value.  biggrin.gif
*
Well That's right.

In the case of mortgage defaults, Americans can just hand the keys back to the bank and walk away. Or simply declare personal bankruptcy. That's the last thing that China wants to see, I would have thought.

if all the "queasing" doesn't work (and there's a very high probability that it won't) the next thing could well be a debt moratorium of some kind - not only in the US but the UK and Euro Zone as well.

What price western currencies then?

<That's where my baked beans and gold come in> brows.gif

lsmpro80
post Aug 19 2009, 11:01 PM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Aug 19 2009, 03:10 PM)
Rcecap kena dispose kau kau on Monday.... the day i bought at high... hahaha  doh.gif
my queue is 0.65 smile.gif  then 0.60 last shot... anything below i'll monitor from hospital already..
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wait for a powerful rebound


Added on August 19, 2009, 11:04 pmTomorrow is chinese super virtual month hehee..
Its time to rumble against the news..

This post has been edited by lsmpro80: Aug 19 2009, 11:04 PM
espree
post Aug 19 2009, 11:06 PM

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Oil prices jump on suprise draw down of US supply

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-prices-j...134727.html?x=0


tessei
post Aug 19 2009, 11:08 PM

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new IPO Today HALEX HOLDINGS BERHAD


sucking more investor money... together with Right Issue... seem they r eager to take our money before the market getting bearish again..

even mr. N & Mr O got limit when going to support market like this... that's why market fail to push the liquidity/volume past 1.2B since few weeks b4... only institution participation with little help from FF playing the blue chip..


cherroy
post Aug 19 2009, 11:19 PM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Aug 19 2009, 10:22 PM)
The falls in the Shanghai market do not reflect the health of the broader Chinese economy.

Rocketing and slumping has always been a characteristic of the Shanghai market. It took only one year for the index to rise from 1,664 to 6,124 points and vice versa.

The Shanghai exchange is all but closed to foreign investors, while Chinese investors have few other options to place their money, since they cannot buy overseas shares.

Consequently, this exchange is extremely volatile,
*
China is like a totally goreng market. Retailers are chasing or dumping in herd one, a lot of them treat stock market as casino table only. sweat.gif

That's why we always see it bubble and burst from time to time. It has been 3 times, China market facing this kind of stock market bubble for the last 10 years or so.

My view only.
simplesmile
post Aug 19 2009, 11:30 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Aug 19 2009, 11:19 PM)
China is like a totally goreng market. Retailers are chasing or dumping in herd one, a lot of them treat stock market as casino table only.  sweat.gif

That's why we always see it bubble and burst from time to time. It has been 3 times, China market facing this kind of stock market bubble for the last 10 years or so.

My view only.
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China: a nation of gamblers that covers a vast territory in eastern Asia; the most populous country in the world
Mika
post Aug 19 2009, 11:30 PM

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Bear angry liao...... got profit run first
Mikiyo
post Aug 19 2009, 11:34 PM

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darn it....my oil counters has been plunging like hell:
40 lot KNM
60 lot Muhibah....

crazy losses....plz up again T.T
kellyC
post Aug 19 2009, 11:34 PM

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QUOTE(Mika @ Aug 19 2009, 11:30 PM)
Bear angry liao...... got profit run first
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hehe...that's a very cute pic! laugh.gif
danmooncake
post Aug 19 2009, 11:47 PM

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QUOTE(Mika @ Aug 19 2009, 11:30 PM)
Bear angry liao...... got profit run first
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Love this pic! rclxms.gif


mv2r
post Aug 19 2009, 11:53 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Aug 19 2009, 11:19 PM)
China is like a totally goreng market. Retailers are chasing or dumping in herd one, a lot of them treat stock market as casino table only.  sweat.gif

That's why we always see it bubble and burst from time to time. It has been 3 times, China market facing this kind of stock market bubble for the last 10 years or so.

My view only.
*
china is the biggest las vegas in asia. everybody dumps money into it and speculate. eventually all will turn into nothing

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