With or without the current political turnoil, BAT stock has risen up significantly and people are going all "hype" out on the stock. However, I believe that would still be the current impact of illicit cigarettes on BAT market. My question is can it really go far as long as illicit cigarettes are not being tackled yet?

Based on actual facts that I know:

- 6 out of 10 cigarettes consumed in Malaysia is illicit as proven from the news as as well.

- The research house has a hold call on BAT, and slashed its price target on the share from RM19.20 to RM11.50 previously

- Illicit market doubled since the surge in excise duty in 2015 (33.5% in 2015 vs 63% in 2019)

A very summarized version on why my skepticism remains even though the growth is showing. Feel free to correct me as I would like to know more feedback from your side as well.

Yes that's my whole point. Is it wise to purchase long term? Definitely not as long as illicit cigarettes are still around!

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...-shadow-economy

Latest news including BAT:

The MNC has cast blame on illegal cigarette trade that it said currently makes up 63% of the total industry volume, up from 33.5% in 2015.“The legal (cigarette) industry has diminished by almost 40% in the span of four years since 2015 due to the illegal cigarettes trade.