Yup, CCB definately caught my attention with chunky payouts that could have been misten for Cap Repayment.

Other counter to look at is Jtinter...

Was lookin at it together with Pana at the beginning of the yr but i think kuda dah larini...

Anyway i think i will settle for my Bjtoto

appoint me as your proxy =P

i remember quite sometime ago Dec09 crash some one bought WCT at 1.XX, i wonder has he sold it off early...?

Wct shares droped quite badly after some problems in the UAE, (race track or something)

bjtoto i don't think is that high ( maybe a bit but still ok)

Anywhere between 4.1 - 4.4 this prices are very rare

4.5 - 4.8 is normal

5 - is when about to declare a chunky dividend..

still can consider.

if not mistaken if the share continue to limit up consecutively for 3 days, the counter will be suspended for the following trading day...

AFFININVESTMENT BANK
MORNING NEWS - Friday, 31 July 2009


"An unhurried sense of time is in itself a form of wealth." - Bonnie Friedman

PREVIOUS TRADING DAY
Market: The KLCI closed at 1160.66pts (-3.82pts; -0.33%) with volume/value at 788m / RM1.4b.
Futures market: The July/Aug futures contract closed at 1163.50 / 1164.50 level which is +2.84pts / +3.84pts than the KLCI.
Currency & CPO futures: The Ringgit was stronger against the US$ at RM3.5315/US$. CPO Oct 09 futures closed +RM32 at RM2145.00.

US MARKETS OVERNIGHT & SELECTED NEWS
DOW +83.74pts +0.92% 9,154.46
S&P +11.60pts +1.19% 986.75
NASDAQ +16.54pts +0.84% 1,984.30
Nymex crude oil +US$3.57 US$66.92
US stocks spike to new 2009 highs: Wall Street rallies as investors saw signs of stabilization on the labor front. Dow closes at highest level this year
US stocks surged Thursday, hitting their highest levels in nearly 9 months, as investors eyed the latest batch of better-than-expected profits and forecasts and a report that suggested the labor market is starting to stabilize. The Dow rose 83 points, or 0.9%, ending at its best level since Nov 4. It was also the highest close for the blue-chip index in 2009. The S&P 500 index added 11 points, or 1.2%, ending at its highest point since Nov 4. The Nasdaq gained 16 points, or 0.8%, to reach its highest close since Oct 1. The major gauges had managed bigger gains earlier in the session, but lost a little momentum by the close. Stocks drifted for the first three sessions of this week, as the recent euphoria that lifted markets faded out. The major gauges all gained between 11% and 12% in the previous two weeks as investors welcomed a spate of better-than-expected quarterly results. But after this week's early volatility, stocks charged ahead Thursday. "The market is finally getting its arms around the fact that we are close to being out of this recession," said Burt White, chief investment officer at LPL Financial. White pointed to three supporting factors: the drop in the continuing claims portion of the weekly jobless report, the cumulative effect of better profit reports, and lessening fears about a slowdown in Asia and the global economy. Labor market: The number of Americans filing unemployment claims for a week or more, a measure known as continuing claims, slipped by more than expected. According to a Labor Department report, continuing claims dipped to 6.2m last week, from a revised 6.25m the previous week, for their lowest level since mid-April and short of forecasts for 6.3m. The continuing claims report overshadowed the regular weekly jobless claims report, which showed a bigger-than-expected rise to 584,000. However, that rise was largely related to seasonal issues related to auto plant shutdowns. Market breadth was positive. On the NYSE, winners beat losers 3 to 1 on volume of 1.36b shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners 2 to 1 on volume of 2.57b shares. Bonds: Treasury prices rose, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.60% from 3.66% late Wednesday. Other markets: In global trading, European and Asian markets both gained on improved profit reports. US light crude oil for September delivery rose US$3.57 to settle at US$66.92 a barrel on the NYMEX. In currency trading, the dollar gained versus the euro and fell against the Japanese yen. COMEX gold for December delivery rose US$7.60 to settle at US$937.30 an ounce.

US oil jumps more than 5%: Crude futures rebound to near US$67 a barrel as Wall Street rallies and data spark optimism
US oil jumped more than 5% to near US$67 a barrel Thursday as economic data sparked fresh optimism that the recession may be bottoming out. The number of US workers staying on jobless rolls fell to the lowest in three months last week, government data showed, while the four-week moving average for new claims dropped by 8,250, to 559,000 -- the lowest level since late January. Support also came from data showing Euro zone economic sentiment increased in July to its highest level in eight months, helping to lift European equities to their highest close in nearly nine months. The central bank of the world's No. 2 oil consumer, China, said Thursday it would keep a loose monetary policy to consolidate its recovery after fears Beijing might move to tighten money supply. That sent Chinese shares spiraling Wednesday. US crude settled up US$3.57 at US$66.92, nearly erasing a 5.8% loss posted Wednesday after US data showed a steep build in the top consumer's crude inventories. The economic data, along with a string of solid corporate profits, helped lift equities markets while the dollar weakened as optimism whetted investor appetite for risk. Expectations a rebound in the global economy could bolster slumping fuel demand have helped push crude up from below US$33 a barrel in December, with many investors looking to stock markets for early signs of a turnaround. The recession has battered global fuel consumption and sent crude tumbling from record highs near US$150 a barrel struck in July 2008, prompting the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to agree a series of output cuts aimed at lifting prices. Kuwait's oil minister Thursday said oil prices should rise later this year with the onset of winter heating oil demand in the Northern Hemisphere.

US initial jobless claims rise by 25,000 to 584,000
The number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits last week held below levels seen in late June, before auto-related distortions set in, indicating firings are slowing as the economy stabilizes. Applications rose by 25,000 to 584,000 in the week ended July 25, higher than forecast, figures from the Labor Department showed. More than 600,000 claims were filed every week last month. The number of people collecting unemployment insurance decreased for a third week. While a resumption in hiring will be slow to materialize, payroll reductions are likely to slow as housing and manufacturing, the areas that led the economy into the worst recession in five decades, steady.

European economic confidence rises more than forecast
European confidence in the economic outlook increased more than economists forecast in July, adding to signs the deepest recession in more than six decades may be bottoming out. An index of executive and consumer sentiment in the 16 nations that use the euro rose to 76, the highest since November, from 73.2 in June, the European Commission said. The growing confidence is the latest evidence that Europe may have seen the worst of the recession as indications of a global recovery improve prospects for the region.

Japan factory output rises 2.4%, fourth monthly gain
Japanese manufacturers increased production for a fourth month in June, capping the fastest quarterly output expansion in more than half a century and helping the economy rebound from its deepest postwar recession. Production rose 2.4% from May, the Trade Ministry said. Output gained 8.3% last quarter from the first three months of 2009, the most since 1953. Companies said they also planned to increase manufacturing in July and August to replenish inventories and meet demand spurred by more than US$2trn in government spending worldwide.

RESEARCH NEWS UNDER OUR COVERAGE
1. STAR PUBLICATIONS (M) BHD (RM3.24; ADD; TARGET PRICE RM3.35)
2Q09 net jumps 80% qoq
* 1H09 net profit of RM51m (-41% yoy) – within expectations: Star’s 1H09 net profit of RM51.1m (-40.9% yoy) accounted for 38% and 41% of our and consensus FY09 estimates respectively. Results are inline with expectations as we expect the 2Q09 adex momentum to further improve in the quarters ahead. Star announced an interim dividend of 10.5 sen (of which 3 sen is tax exempt) inline with our full year forecast of 20 sen.
* 1H09 revenue flat yoy due to Cityneon contribution: If not for the recently acquired Cityneon (consolidated since Dec 08), which contributed RM65.2m to turnover, Star’s revenue would have declined 15.8% yoy as a result of weaker adex spend, particularly in 1Q09. This is sharper than the general decline in adex for the newsprint industry, which slipped 5% yoy due to stronger adex in the Malay segment. Earnings were lower due to lower revenue as well as higher cost particularly newsprint at US$700-750/MT, which is nearly 27% higher than year ago. Weaker 1H09 EBITDA margin of 20.9% vs 31.4% for 1H08 was due to 1) lower revenue; 2) higher newsprint cost; and 3) dilution effect from Cityneon where PBT margin is 5.8% vs 20.3% for print in 1H09.
* Net profit jumps 80% sequentially: As anticipated 2Q09 revenue of RM234.2m rose 29.2% qoq on improved adex spending, inline with the 13% sequential increase in industry newsprint adex. Nevertheless, the sharp spike in revenue is more likely to have been driven by stronger contribution from the event management and exhibition business. At the net profi level, earnings jumped 79.9% qoq due largely to the revenue increase. 2Q09 EBITDA margins improved to 23.4% vs 17.8% in 1Q09 largely due to the higher revenue base. Management continues to guide for an average newsprint cost of US$700-750/MT for FY09 as the company has not purchased any additional newsprint inventory to bring its cost lower.
RECOMMENDATION: We are leaving our forecast unchanged and maintain our ADD rating on the Star. Target price remains at RM3.35 based on 16x FY10 EPS. We like Star for its leading position in the English paper segment, and its above market dividend yields of 6.2% for FY09-11.

2. KNM GROUP BHD (RM0.875; UPGRADE TO TRADING BUY; TARGET PRICE RM0.94)
Secured a US$220m contract
* Going into oil and gas extraction: Yesterday, KNM announced that its wholly owned subsidiary KNM Process System (KNMPS) had entered into a Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) with Societe Des Hydrocarbures Du Tchad S.A. (The National Oil Corporation of Chad) in Djamina, the Republic of Chad to set up a JV with 60:40 split in equity between KNMPS and Societe. Under the agreement:
(i) The JV will be granted a 5 year concession commencing from the first date of production to develop, operate and maintain the Sedigi Oil Field Facilities in Chad comprising of production facilities, oil and gas pipelines, LPG processing and bottling plant and a 30MW gas power plant.
(ii) KNMPS will undertake the turnkey project worth US$220m for a period of 24 months
(iii) The JV will award to KNMPS, training, operations and maintenance of the facilities for the concession period
(iv) Details for the JV will be finalised by 31st Aug 09
(v) The Chad governemnt will receive royalties - 20% for oil and 10% for gas
(vi) Societe will endeavour to secure tax benefits within existing laws and
KNMPS will do same for interest cost of project funding
* 3 forms of income from the JV: According to management, the Sedigi Oilfield is a brownfield, previously operated by Exxon Mobil. We believe the set up of the JV is to takeover the oilfield after the expiration of the contract with Exxon Mobil. The EPCC work that KNM will undertake is expected to start in 3Q09 after the finalisation of the JV. Apart from the EPCC income of US$220m that KNM will receive 100%, KNM will also receive recurring income from operating the production facilities in future, the amount of which was not disclosed in the announcement. Besides that, KNM will also benefit from its (60%) share of profit from the sale of oil and gas after deducting capex and 30% royalties to the Chad government. With the US$220m new EPCC contract, earnings visibility for KNM has certainly improved from the previous level of RM2.8bn (current orderbook is boosted to RM3.57bn). While the orderbook is inline with our estimates, there could be more earnings upside when management clarifies further details from the oilfield, eg annual operating fee for 5 years, amount of oil and gas that can be extracted, capex and etc.
RECOMMENDATION: We believe the announcement will create some positive sentiment on the stock. Given the improved ability to secure new jobs based on an expectation of a gradual economic recovery, we upgrade KNM to TRADING BUY with a revised TP of RM0.94, pegged at a mid cycle PE multiple of 12.5x (average of 5 year historical PE). We upgrade the stock to Trading Buy.

3. MTD CAPITAL BHD (RM2.40; SELL; TARGET PRICE RM1.85)
Novating Chinese expressway concession
* Chinese expressway concession may finally be moving: MTD Cap announced that it had entered into a Novation Agreement to novate its investment rights in Yangshuo-Luzhai Expressway in the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, People’s Republic of China to 65%-owned MTD Expressway Investment Ltd (MTDEI) for the investment, construction and management of the project. Pursuant to the agreement, MTDEI shall:
(i) Carry out the project as stipulated in the Built-Operate-Transfer (BOT) Contract dated 29 March 2007 entered with the Department of Communications, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region of the People’s Republic of China.
(ii) Manage the special purpose vehicle to be incorporated namely, Guangxi Yang Lu Expressway Co. Ltd. for the construction and management of the project.
The announcement further added that the Novation Agreement is not expected to have any material effect on the MTD Group and is not subject to the approval of the shareholders of MTD. However, it is a step forward after almost four years since the Joint-Venture Framework Agreement was inked and almost two and half years after the BOT contract was entered into.
* Concession period of 29 years and 4 months: The 30 March 2007 announcement indicated that the concession period was 29 years and 4 months (excluding construction period) and total project investment of approximately RMB3.8bn or RM1.7bn. Based on its 65% stake in MTDEI, the project value attributable to MTD Cap is RM1.1bn. We believe the other 35% is still held by Far Express Investment Ltd, a company nominated by Mr Yang Xu, a Chinese citizen involved in highway investment and management consultancy.
* Expressway project would be EPS and RNAV enhancing: Assuming this long delayed Chinese expressway concession project is finally going ahead and construction commence from 1 April 2010 at a pretax margin at 3%, we estimate an enhancement of 11.3% and 11.2% in FY11 and FY12 EPS. Assuming an IRR of 11% and WACC of 8%, this BOT concession is also expected to enhance RNAV per share by 84 sen to RM2.79 or RM2.23 after a 20% discount. Pending confirmation and subject to progress of execution, we believe it is prudent to continue to value the stock on earnings.
RECOMMENDATION: Based on an unchanged target CY10 PE of 7.5x and assuming the Chinese BOT contract commences from 1 April 2009, target price is raised to RM1.85. Stock call remains at SELL. Earnings delivery so far has been poor as the company suffered from high material costs, project delays and project losses. Stock liquidity is also extremely poor. For exposure to the construction sector which we have an Overweight rating, we prefer IJM (RM6.10, TP RM6.50), Gamuda (RM3.20, TP RM3.21) and MRCB (RM1.42, TP RM1.83).

4. AIRASIA BHD (RM1.48; UPGRADE TO TRADING BUY: RM1.81)
Concerns addressed
* Placement exercise and deferment of 15 aircraft deliveries to 2014: We have turned more sanguine on AirAsia with its recent efforts to shore up cash (approx RM500m) via a placement exercise coupled with plans to defer delivery of 8 aircrafts in 2010 and 7 in 2011 to 2014. We were previously concerned over AirAsia’s increasingly stretched balance sheet in lieu of its aggressive fleet expansion strategy as well as dilution arising from a potential cash call. Nonetheless, with management opting for a placement exercise and indication that there is interest from private equity investors to take up the new shares, possibly at a slight discount to prevailing market price, our concerns over excessive dilution has been addressed.
* Gearing levels improve with lower capex requirements: Lower capex requirements in tandem with the deferment in aircraft delivery (reduced to RM4.5bn over FY10-11 from RM6.8bn based on initial aircraft delivery schedule) addresses our concerns over AirAsia’s future funding commitments. We estimate AirAsia’s net gearing position would fall to 3.2x (1Q09 net gearing stood at 3.7x) and FY10 interest cover would improve to 4x from a low of 3x in 1Q09. Nonetheless, savings from lower interest expense and depreciation charges will be partially negated by lesser revenue collected in view of lesser capacity to be tapped into. We have revised AirAsia’s FY10-11 aircraft delivery in our earnings model to 16 per year vs an initial target of 24 planes in FY10 and 23 in FY11. Overall, our FY10-11 core earnings are lifted by 4-5%.
* Operations remain healthy: Despite the slump in traffic for global airlines, AirAsia managed to grow its passenger base and sustain load factors at a healthy 75%. This comes on the back of massive fare discounting to counter aggressive competition by MAS as well as the H1N1 flu outbreak, which would inadvertently lead to lower yields in 2Q09. Nonetheless, we believe lower yields will be partially compensated by low jet fuel prices (ytd average US$62/barrel, -56% yoy) and AirAsia’s unhedged position. For every US$5/barrel decrease in jet fuel prices, AirAsia’s earnings will be lifted by some 18-19%.
RECOMMENDATION: With our previous concerns over balance sheet stress from new aircraft deliveries addressed coupled with expected strong earnings momentum in lieu of weak jet fuel prices, we upgrade AirAsia to a TRADING BUY from a REDUCE rating previously. Our target price is raised to RM1.81 from RM1.10 previously, pegged to EV/EBITDA of 11x, inline with historical average. At RM1.81, this implies CY10 PE of 11x.

5. ASEAN OUTLOOK
Another positive mom growth in Malaysia’s leading index
* Despite the volatility, Asean’s IPI will gradually further improve in 2H09: The Malaysia’s leading index (LI), a reliable indicator designed by Department of Statistics (Dos) to measure the direction of economic activity, rose from +0.8% mom in Mar 09 to +1.9% in Apr 09, but moderated to +0.3% in May 09. However, the moderation in May’s LI does not indicate a slower magnitude of increase in economic recovery in 2H09. The latest reading of LI, which recorded positive mom growth for the fifth consecutive month, is reflecting that domestic economic activity is recovering from its low points in 2Q09, and likely to show further signs of improvement in 2H09.

According to Dos, the increase in May’s LI were attributed to four of its eight components, i.e increases in real money supply, M1 (+0.5%), Bursa Malaysia industrial index (+0.2%), inverted growth rate of CPI for services (+0.2%) as well as growth rate of industrial material price index (+0.1%). In conjunction with the leading index (LI), Dos also releases the coincident and lagging indicators.

The coincident index (CI), a measure of current conditions of economic activities, fell from +0.8% mom in Apr 09 to -0.4% in May 09, dragged down by declines in real gross imports (-0.3%), total employment in manufacturing sector (-0.3%) and industrial production index (-0.1%). However, the lagging Index rose from +3.0% mom in Apr 09 to +3.8% in May 09. Examining the economic indicators on the upside and downside risks to the economic growth outlook, we continue to see more signs of global economic revival in 2H09, which will set the stage for the Malaysia economy to record positive growth from 4Q09.

Separately, industrial production index (IPI) in Singapore unexpectedly contracted from +2.1% yoy in May 09 to -9.3% in Jun 09, due mainly to the fall in output of pharmaceutical related and medical technology sectors. Singapore’s output of electrical and electronic (E&E) products contracted further by -20.4% yoy in Jun 09, but at a smaller decline than the -22.9% decline in May 09. Despite the volatility of the IPI series, we do not expect the contraction in Singapore June’s IPI to accelerate as experienced during the 4Q08 and 1Q09. With global semiconductor sales showing sequential monthly increases, rising +5.4% mom from US$15.6bn in Apr 09 to US$16.5bn in May 09, we expect global demand for electronics will translate into gradual improvement in demand for E&E products from Singapore as well as improvement in IPI for other Asean economies.

Next Week: According to market expectations, inflation in Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand continued its downward momentum in Jul 09. Industrial production in Thailand is expected to improve marginally, with a –9.5% yoy contraction in Jun 09 compared to the -10% yoy decline in May 09. Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand will also release trade figures, with expectation being for lesser declines compared to the preceding month.

OTHER NEWS
Petroliam Nasional Bhd is buying out The Dow Chemical Co's stake in the Optimal Group of Companies, a manufacturer of petrochemical products, for US$660 million (RM2.3 billion). Established in July 1998, Optimal comprises three joint ventures involving Petronas and Union Carbide Corp (UCC), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Dow. The companies are Optimal Olefins (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd, Optimal Glycols (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd and Optimal Chemicals (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd. Petronas will use its own funds to pay for the purchase. The transaction, subject to customary conditions and approvals, is expected to be concluded by the end of the third quarter.

IJM Plantations will finish its buying spree of oil palm estates in Indonesia by end-2009 and start planting immediately after to tap growing demand for the vegetable oil, a company official said. Chief executive Velayuthan Tan said the company had so far met nearly 70 per cent of its 40,000ha acquisition target on Indonesian side of Borneo island, located near its existing 30,000ha of plantations in Sabah. "We don't want to go beyond this target. We shouldn't bite off any more than we can chew," Tan said in a telephone interview on Wednesday

CYCLE & Carriage Bintang Bhd (CCB), Malaysia's largest dealer for Mercedes Benz vehicles, plans to pay shareholders RM90.7 million in special dividends as it now has room to return excess funds. "The operation of the group's businesses following the restructuring which was completed last year has generated further positive cashflow," CCB said in a statement to Bursa Malaysia yesterday. It declared a special dividend of RM1.20 per share less 25 per cent tax. This will be paid to shareholders on September 18 this year.

CHINA'S Multi Sports Holdings Ltd will have a market capitalisation of RM306 million by the time it makes its listing debut on Bursa Malaysia's Main Market tentatively on August 19. The shoe-sole producer, set to be the second foreign firm listed on Bursa Malaysia, is offering 100.1 million shares all priced at 85 sen each under its initial public offering (IPO).Multi Sports will have an enlarged paid-up capital of 360 million shares upon closing of the IPO offer on August 7. The company's listing prospectus, detailing the share offerings as well as the company's track record and growth prospects, was launched yesterday.

Market is uber slow today...

as if nothing happen over the weekend...

*sigh*

I think Bursa just implemented the new bid system, right?
its going to be a very boring day...

omg i think i will be joining futures very soon as this rate

than again i might get a heart attk at the rate it moves

This post has been edited by aurora97: Aug 3 2009, 09:29 AM

General Broadcast A.K.A Spam.

Dear Sir/Madam,

You are cordially invited:

Date: 23rd August 2009

Location: SS.15 (inti College) @ Darusalem

Time: 8pm onwards

Appreciate if you could confirm your attendance as follows
1. Attending;
2. Maybe Attending; or
3. Not Attending.

The details will be revised accordingly in the respective thread.

SOS Chili

Should you have any enquiries in relations to the same (or for whatever reasons your name has been missed or left out), please do not hesitate to contact me.

Thank you!

Regards,

Aurora97

no problems

keke... must be staying in Mt Kiara solaris or Sri Hartamas

problem is you will be required to have substantial amount of liquid assets to hedge i.e. cash on hand.

forseeable problems margin call (if the market suddenly not in fabour of the futures trader n increase in intial margin.)

Thats what Plantations are doing hedging their position, but the risk of default (in the event of significabnt flactuation, default in delivery may be greater).

For KLCI traders, external or internal events may encourage the KLCI to swing wildly... may cause substantial losses especially for hedgers. (if a person were to cut loss, it would be called speculating rather than hedging wouldn't it?)

This post has been edited by aurora97: Aug 3 2009, 02:31 PM

My thoughts...

Don't normally see small time retail speculators hold overnight, most speculators would opt for intraday...

must be really careful when institutional clients rollover their positions at the end of the month, price may flactuate rapidly.

well again my 2cts, just put a stop loss trigger...

in case one of those unforseen circumstances do happen... keep ur eyes and ears peeeled at all times for trouble.

trade with caution.

Gd luck

Quoted for the truth.

Oh ya forgot to ask what the inital margin now for FKLI and FCPO and where to find the information...

long time liau totally forgotten where to find it.

so cheap! no wonder everyone is going in now

Adam u stil taking in retail clients , i am tempted to take advantage (or be taken advantage of ) of the futures market also.

Will contact u (if ur still acepting retail clients) once i get approval from co-conspirators.

i mean the intial margin...

way back when...

FKLI IM was around 8K, CPO was 11K or smthing ..

good good... already an osk client anyway shud be easy to do business kekeke

i didnt know the intial margin was that low, is like buying 30 counters just investing in 1 lot @ the price of a mid cap counter..

like i said Way baaaaaccckkk when... inital margin was around 8K++ for FKLI how to go in?