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 Stock Market V34: Return of the Bull, Part II, Malaysia Boleh!! 1200 is coming

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cherroy
post Jul 21 2009, 11:42 PM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Jul 21 2009, 11:27 PM)
It is still the same. When oil price drop, our govt still have reason to hike everything. So I will prefer up.
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Our oridnary living expenses might not see it but on factory and manufacturing industry, those oil price can be very influential.

My company does dealing with some raw material which crude oil and natural gas is needed as feedstock to make the raw material. Last year when oil price shoot to >USD120, raw material cost x2 which put a lot of pressure on the company cost structure as well as product selling price. Now price is 50% of last year peak, it is contrast difference which is good as driving force for recovery and relief to every company.

Not to mention that ordinary factory buying industrial diesel at floating market price based on oil price.
When oil price spike to >USD100, industrial diesel is about 3.00 per litre. Now below 1.80 per litre.

So if oil price spike again, it will hurt manufacturing line a lot eventually will kill the recovery process because company cannot hire more if there is no profit to run existing business, don't need to say about expansion plan.

The reason why we see price hiking around is that we had been living on lot of subsidy previously. When gov no longer able to sustain the increased subsidy needed, then it needs to be removed one by one. That's the primary reason. Also, one of the issue is the questionable contract signed like toll price increase every 3 years, IPP contract (although we might be beneficiary from owning IPP stocks) which can be main source or reason that has rippled effect on overall.
Malaysia's a lot of goods price is under controllable by gov subsidy and decision, which has its advantage also disadvantage. Now we see the disadvantage part of it.
cherroy
post Jul 21 2009, 11:49 PM

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QUOTE(debbieyss @ Jul 21 2009, 11:44 PM)
But previously Cherroy said CIT won't affect the stock market much.

http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopi...post&p=27312358
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CIT is not a big deal to overall market.

Even when news (potential bankruptcy) come out, market doesn't have any sell off and keep on going up until now.

Any potential sell off at current point is more about profit taking after 5-6 days continous rise.

Market is overbought right now.
cherroy
post Jul 22 2009, 02:36 PM

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Wah, ASM money pumping into Sime? going up like non-stop, somemore with CPO price never goes up, how come all plantation stocks going up then? ASM into plantation stocks? hmm.gif
cherroy
post Jul 22 2009, 02:43 PM

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QUOTE(! Love Money @ Jul 22 2009, 02:38 PM)
so fast? just now ASM sold out and the money entering stock exchange?
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Possible also, they buy now, they have T+3 before need to make payment, while all ASM money is in cash.
cherroy
post Jul 22 2009, 02:46 PM

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I don't like current market rise/theme especially plantation stocks going up without CPO price going up in line with it.

If CPO price doesn't go up, it just means defying fundamental only, unless we see improvement in CPO demand aka even at lower price but plantation company can sell more to achieve higher profit.
We need to see earning improvement at good pace so that plantation stocks have room for the upside.

My view only.
cherroy
post Jul 22 2009, 03:04 PM

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Anyone please open a new version.

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