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 Stock Market V34: Return of the Bull, Part II, Malaysia Boleh!! 1200 is coming

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cherroy
post Jul 20 2009, 12:01 AM

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QUOTE(edwin32us @ Jul 19 2009, 11:10 PM)
Lay man term

Overbought = too expensive  sweat.gif
Oversold = too cheap  rclxm9.gif
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Not exactly.

Overbought = shoot up too much too quick
Oversold = the opposite.

It doesn't point the stock is cheap or expensive, it just indicates short term movement magnitude.
cherroy
post Jul 20 2009, 12:15 AM

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QUOTE(Malefic @ Jul 19 2009, 06:44 PM)
http://themalaysianinsider.com/index.php/b...azanah-involved

RM1 dividend payment?

Astro shares set to cheong on Monday.

Dali of www.malaysiafinance.blogspot.com also has a write-up on this counter. He recommends buying as long as the price is below RM3.70.

Still trying to decide whether I shoud jump into Astro tomorrow.
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Based on 2009 annual report.

Astro outstanding share = 1.2 billion
Cash = 1 billion if plus receivable = 1.8 billion
Payable and borrowing = 1.6 billion

So if paying Rm1 dividend per share, the company ended no cash to run the company. Not to mention the potential capital expenditure needed. Unles company paying generous dividend through borrowing which is not a good idea to do so

Generous dividend only viable in some special restructuring process (which we don't know what is the form the major shareholder willing to take), which either through privatisation, capital injection, splitting etc which must involved at least capital injection so that Astro still has cash to run its operation after the massive payout.
cherroy
post Jul 20 2009, 09:48 AM

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QUOTE(aurora97 @ Jul 20 2009, 09:43 AM)
even if he dumps his personal shares doesn't necessarily means he relinquishes "indirect" control, bjtoto has always been VT white knight, crown jewels cookie jar and whatever you want to call it.

If you look at the shareholding, you will see alot of it are opened using Trust a/c, nominee and so on... i think control for this counter will be vigorously defended by VT.


Added on July 20, 2009, 9:44 ambjtoto is shinning!


Added on July 20, 2009, 9:45 amaxiata damn sedap man... has been rushing upwards, same price with TM now doh.gif how can this be!
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BJtoto is the goose the lay golden eggs, VT won't let the goose fly away, no matter how the situation, reduce stake for paying debt etc, the controlling stake is intact.
In fact, Bjtoto is the core profit making machine for BJgroup, which supporting the cashflow of BJ group related company through generous dividend payout.
cherroy
post Jul 20 2009, 09:55 AM

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Astro rumour on restructuring could be true with the suspension, but the RM1 dividend, not sure, as it involves 1.2 billion of cash payout which is huge for the company.
cherroy
post Jul 20 2009, 10:40 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Jul 20 2009, 10:37 AM)
Does that mean it the fair value is only 16c?
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No, doesn't related.

It just means previous you have 1.00, now become 0.16.

Just a word, do not mix capital reduction with capital repayment, it is total opposite different story! smile.gif
cherroy
post Jul 20 2009, 11:32 AM

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QUOTE(chyaw @ Jul 20 2009, 11:28 AM)
I didn't follow the counter anymore, but it was a good buy then.
Today STI fly!
Anyway, no regret or you'll live in miserable world!  tongue.gif
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HSI even flies higher, cross 19K mark.

CIT could avoid bankruptcy if getting financing spur the bullish sentiment.

The rise of the market recently is not coupled with surge of volume which is the weak part of this bull.
cherroy
post Jul 20 2009, 02:37 PM

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QUOTE(debbieyss @ Jul 20 2009, 02:31 PM)
but i just don't understand:

1. how can the price keep rising when volume is thin?

2. is it the more people buying in, the higher and voume and price is? what is it that makes volume thinner or bigger?
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1. Sometimes, price goes up because lack of sellers, a few buying can result the price shoot up.

2. We want to see volume surge in line with price surge because we want to see the market goes up due to more people want to buy, not because lack of seller.
cherroy
post Jul 20 2009, 02:41 PM

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QUOTE(naz_b_85 @ Jul 20 2009, 02:32 PM)
Astro trap!! laugh.gif
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Because there is no Rm1 dividend as rumour.

As posted yesterday, Astro's cash position alone is not able to have the payout.

But if after restructure, Astro come out clean without overseas bleeding business, it is positive news.

Local business is ok, it is the overseas business that drag on the company financial performance.
cherroy
post Jul 20 2009, 02:57 PM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Jul 20 2009, 02:47 PM)
hmm i hope ASTRO's problem wont pour over to Tanjong, coz afaik, Usaha Tegas holds lots of Tanjong too..
cherroy, what do u think ?

meanwhile, will an increase of power tariff by TNB affect IPP's earnings ? thanks sifu  smile.gif
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I don't think so, major shareholder has been acting consistently throughout on their holding as separate entity. Astro and Tanjong might have the same major shareholders, but business and operational wise, they are totally separated. There is no link between Astro and Tanjong.

No (if not mistaken), IPP deal with TNB aka I sell fixed x amount power to you everyday, while TNB decide how much they want to sell, it is TNB matter.
cherroy
post Jul 20 2009, 03:22 PM

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QUOTE(lklatmy @ Jul 20 2009, 03:09 PM)
Some old news revisited:

Bursa is proposing to change the minimum bids,the proposed movement is as follows:

<RM1 --------                      0.5 sen

RM1-9.99  --------                1 sen
RM10-99.98 --------              2 sen
>RM100 ------                  10 sen
First testing of the computer system was done on last Saturday.Implementation date---masih tak tahu ,but could be quite soon.
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We could see more 1 batang then. biggrin.gif

I don't see any major different except on 5.00, 10.00 one.
I agree current 5 cents per tick in 5.00 is a bit too much (1%). So change to lower make sense, but 1 cent seem too little, may be 2 cents more appropriate. As it could mean troublesome to trade when buyer/seller too spread around.

Desperate to have more trading volume? whistling.gif

What next move then, 1 lot = 1 share whistling.gif biggrin.gif
cherroy
post Jul 20 2009, 03:30 PM

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QUOTE(VyvernS @ Jul 20 2009, 03:24 PM)
Yeah...i remembered this news. Could be true... sad.gif

Now a person willing to buy at 10.10 now will have more choices at 10.02, 10.04, 10.06 and 10.08. Imagine so many ticks to break to be at 10.10. Similarly, selling q will be so many different ticks.

But really, if someone is willing to take all the q from 10.00-10.02-10.04-10.06-10.08-10.10 it will still move as fast if from 10.00 to 10.10 right?
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Introducing more ticks doesn't more hurdle ahead.

Market has its own way of trade, just like you see resort is trade at 2.81, 2.82, but we only see major hurdle in 2.80, 2.85 or 2.90.

Instead see huge Q in one price if 5 cents per tick, intorducing smaller tick spread the Q and more disperse around.

But at 2 cents for 10.00 & 1 cents at 5.00 seems a bit troublesome to trade on, KLSE doesn't have so many investors or trader around compared the like US.

Too little tick can mean troublesome for trader and investors only.
cherroy
post Jul 20 2009, 04:03 PM

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After tech bubble, subprime or real estate bubble, next bubble could be coming from China.

QUOTE
China Regulator Warns Bank Lending May Be Overheating

http://www.cnbc.com/id/31998190

They need to control it properly otherwise it is no different create another bubble to solve previously burst bubble.
cherroy
post Jul 20 2009, 04:19 PM

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QUOTE(Neo18 @ Jul 20 2009, 04:13 PM)
imagine coming from 50k loss to 24k gain.. not bad man!!!
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Thrill and excitement like roller coaster.

PFEPRF's one of main portfolio is Resorts or Genting Malaysia, Resorts share price actually lag behind right now compared to overall market movement.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jul 20 2009, 04:20 PM
cherroy
post Jul 20 2009, 04:29 PM

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QUOTE(jasontoh @ Jul 20 2009, 04:25 PM)
Latexx? Sell condom one ah?
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With unemployment rate ticking up and lesser job around, no OT etc. which people have more time but no money (to travel, shopping), it is a positive factor for condom sale. whistling.gif laugh.gif

Joking nia.

Latexx should be making glove one as well
cherroy
post Jul 20 2009, 04:49 PM

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Actually I am more interested to know 'kena trap' story, as it is 10x more good learning lesson than knowing which or how much other had gain. Because we don't get a share of those gain.

Don't get me wrong, it is good to see people gaining in the market.

Knowing kena trap story will teach us how to avoid kena trap.

In stock market, if most of the time and consistently avoiding making loss in every investment made, then one is making a big step in stock market investment. Remember to gain in stock market, first rule, don't lose your money/capital.
cherroy
post Jul 20 2009, 05:37 PM

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QUOTE(debbieyss @ Jul 20 2009, 04:56 PM)

why not Cherroy you start first.  rclxms.gif
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Me? I had long time don't touch goreng food, not much story can come from my side. 1 month max transaction only 1 time or 2 times, surely bored to death which buy, don't know when to sell one.

Had painful lesson on Amcorp . Biggest mistake don't know how to evaluate the risk of NPL or underestimate of NPL that can bring down a financial company overnight, just like what had happened on recent crisis. What happened now in US is just a mirror of 1997 Asian crisis, except Asian countries has no luxury of get away with it with money printing.


cherroy
post Jul 20 2009, 05:39 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Jul 20 2009, 05:33 PM)
Axreit 2nd quater report is out.

revenue up, profits up, EPS up, dividend 4.1 sens huh??
*
Wow, beyond expectation, EPS is 4.9 cents, DPU is 4.1 cents. Nice, another cheque is coming. thumbup.gif


cherroy
post Jul 20 2009, 05:44 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Jul 20 2009, 05:39 PM)
cherroy!!!! axreit is giving you angpow money again!!!
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This angpow every three months, not per year one lor. thumbup.gif

That's why I like it dividend play, don't need to do anything like everyday need to think until head burst which stock to goreng, how much to buy, when to sell, how much to sell etc. Scare tomorrow will drop etc etc.
Just blowing water in lyn, then waiting cheque coming every Q. laugh.gif

It can go beyond 1.70 now.
cherroy
post Jul 20 2009, 05:50 PM

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QUOTE(nujikabane @ Jul 20 2009, 05:47 PM)
Learnt a lesson, there is no free lunch . tongue.gif
No such thing as buy shares nearing ex-date, then hold until ex-date, sell at cost and get to keep dividend as profit .
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Yes, there is no free lunch, buying before ex-date generally means buying at higher price already.

Stock price always price in some known or expected factors, that's why people said stock price is reflection how economy will be down the road.

cherroy
post Jul 21 2009, 04:40 PM

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QUOTE(lklatmy @ Jul 21 2009, 04:35 PM)
Yeah,i totally agree with you.

CIMB was the Adviser and "Price Stabiliser"(already ceased) for this company's listing,their research report.......hmmmm,you decide.

One more  point,Good China companies list in NY,HK,SG and Europe,why this company list in MY?

My postings are all rubbish,don't make any decision based on my postings. laugh.gif  laugh.gif
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This is precise question I had been asking and still my mind cannot clear on it after Huaan has listed as maiden red chip stock.

Why Malaysia? If Malaysia is the top bourse in the Asian region, then probably very easy to spot the reason.
We have HK, Shanghai, Senzhen, Singapore which is size and liquidity wise is large than KLSE, why choose Malaysia? Cheaper to list? Less regulation?


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