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 TMI/Axiata, Trading opportunities

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skiddtrader
post Mar 25 2009, 12:28 AM

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Previously you had 4 Shares at RM2.61 which comes to RM10.44 assuming you bought recently.

If you subscribe to the rights at RM1.12, you have to fork out another RM5.6 to own 5 rights which will equal 1 share each.

So after the subscription you will have 9 shares, which cost you about RM16.04 which means each share is only RM1.78 for you. This is your cost price if you bought the share at RM2.61 recently.


Because of the huge rights issue, EPS and dividend will be diluted. The pie remains the same but have to cut to smaller pieces for more shares.

If you want to guess how much the price will stabilise at then you need to use their historical PER and compare it with the estimated future price.


Their latest EPS is RM0.1348 according to OSK. After their last quarter announcement the market punished their stock to below RM3 to around RM2.70 and even lower. So based on the market forces, they judged TMI PER to be around 17-20x.

So the diluted EPS would be (RM0.1348 * 4) / 9 = RM0.0599

Multiply the diluted EPS by the PER ; 0.0599 * 20 = RM1.198 which is the diluted share price.


So basically, unless your costs after the rights is below RM1.198, you are going to lose money.

Hope I got that right.



 

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