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 TMI/Axiata, Trading opportunities

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foofoosasa
post Aug 24 2011, 09:56 PM

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QUOTE(javelin819 @ Aug 17 2011, 02:52 PM)
KUALA LUMPUR: OSK Research is upgrading TM to a BUY with a fair value of RM4.80 from its last close of RM4.01.

The research house said on Wednesday, Aug 17 the upgrade was due to its more cautious house view on the broader market and TM’s defensive attribute.

Other positive factors were the strong traction for TM’s high speed broadband service and also the dividend upside potential.

“TM’s 1HFY11 results, due to be announced on 24 Aug should hold little surprises with the key highlight being the strong growth of Unifi as the service expands to new areas,” it said.

OSK Research said it raised its FY11-13 forecasts to build-in the stronger than expected growth for Unifi and incorporating bigger contribution from its wholesale business from 4Q11.

“There is over 20% upside to our revised FV of RM4.80 (6x FY12 EV/EBITDA) which now integrates a potential special DPS of 13sen/share. TM is our other top telco pick aside from Axiata,” it said.

Looks like TM might give us a surprise. For long term defensive investor, you guys might want to get this in your portfolio. smile.gif
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1)high competition business,company facing pressure in profit margin....
2)I suspect they understate their depreciation cost too..company like this always mention EBITDA, EBITDA & EBITDA.
3)Capital Intensive business due to business nature.
4)Return of equity will stay around 8% -13% within these years.it means you earn normal return in the long run...
5)the amount of money they retain for growth purpose doesn't improve much the return of equity..but instead they forced to do sp that to stay in the industry.

if someone want to buy and hold (long term investment) this stock, be prepared to earn a "normal return" ..

just my view

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Aug 24 2011, 09:58 PM
foofoosasa
post Aug 25 2011, 10:39 AM

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QUOTE(nasni @ Aug 25 2011, 07:55 AM)
Buy Q at  4.85 is fully loaded.....i hope this is true to be realised

so we'll see  how it goes today......


Added on August 25, 2011, 8:09 am

then again if u track this counter from early last year when price was somewhere around 3.00, many made great gains along the way.

I dunno at current price if it's fully valued?

at these times of uncertainty and volatility  i personally categorise it under defensive.....  and not many counter could be a great peformer by year end when KLCI's trend is quite evasive....    my opinion....
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hi, my view only apply to those who really hold for long term ( more than 3 years).
I am not surprise where the share price going, market always willing to pay more for stock like this because it is "famous".
that remind me exactly same back in 2007 where a telecommunication stock listed at somewhere priced around $ 9 dollar... which my valuation around 3 dollar. eventually the stock fall to around 3 dollar and still never recovered.
"In the short run , stock price like a voting machine.in the long run ,price will follow value in the long run like a weighting machine"...

so my view is just sell it if think it is overvalued, don't try to be too smart buy and hold for too long, sometimes buy and hold for a wrong stock can be much much more costly just because you think it is defensive.If I am trader, I will really like stock like this..a lot of waterfish investor pretend to be long term holder.

But the way this company doing the right things by not giving dividend...

again my view is only apply to those want to sleep without worry for 5 years who invested in this stock.

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Aug 25 2011, 10:40 AM
foofoosasa
post Aug 25 2011, 11:39 AM

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QUOTE(rosdi1 @ Aug 25 2011, 11:29 AM)
As for now... sell out... 4% down 
why?
What wrong?
I am a bit worried here
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hi rosdi,
my advice/view doesn't apply to trader.so what I mentioned above is meaningless for you.
I don't know where the stock price will be going,as I never predict where the share price will go tomorrow or next week and give less concern to market sentiment.what I can do is to stick my value estimation.invest it at great margin of safety.my investment strategy is very "apek" and prudent.
you should ask other TA expert instead of me. (but the way I assume you're one of the TA expert too.)

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Aug 25 2011, 11:42 AM

 

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