Even for the like Intel with monopoly business and with profit margin more than 50% also feel the pinch, those smaller one with more competition around surely will feel the pain greater.

To be specific, those with high overhead cost and high cash flow draining industry will be in the worse shape.
In time like this, cashflow statement from the financial report is the first to be looked at, not P&L, profit is secondary to cashflow right now.

Stimulus needed to be done and planned properly, it is only the bullet that can be used right now. So it shoot wrongly, then it will prolong the recession.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jan 22 2009, 09:49 AM

Interest rate never a problem for Malaysia as we never go beyond 3.5% even during hyper inflation last year.

When the rate is low, whether it is 2% or 2.5% or 3%, it doesn't make a lot of impact on the economy. If it was the like 5% and above the you cut it until 2%, then the impact is obvious.

But with FD rate will be at 2.x%, then need to serious look at those good stocks with high dividend.

Immediate target will be Carlsberg (going to give its final dividend which expected around 20~25 cents when releasing its full year result in the coming month). But Carlsberg won't report good financial result due to erosion of market share to Guiness, but some 5% dividend yield still can expect from it.
Don't mean to recommend it, judge your own and buy on your own risk.

Not only this counter, they are the big buyers in recent market, from Sime, TM (that's why it rose back to 3.xx from 2.60) etc.

This need to wait until March as their financial year ended March, so by then only some final dividend will be declared.

Forex market now focus on the ability of country to withstand the impact of recession.

Interest differentiate is not much in between nowadays, all are in the region of 1% ~ 3%, not much to compare with except Yen and USD which no room for downside. So interest rate alone is not a significant factor to lure investors into particular currency.
What's more important now is the country take focus and look serious into to offset economy difficulty which eventually is the one will come out the recession faster and lesser damage. So by moving in drastically, it sends a message to the market, central bank and gov is looking serious into it, or desperate (depend what you call, no different, haha), so market react to it. The market is more worry if gov and central bank doesn't realise the difficulty ahead or ignorant about current recession in making.

With the financial crisis looming until now, people want to ensure the "return of money" (you can get back your money), not "return on money" (profit can be made). So interest rate become secondary issue now.

Yes, all banks in Malaysia including foreign banks operate in Malaysia one (as those are incorporated in Malaysia, not directly from overseas), all deposits are guaranteed by gov, not 60K.

So without further notice, then it will revert back to 60K after 2010, as the amount PIDM stated.

Especially with economy difficulty ahead and difficulty to raise fund in current environment (although interest rate is low, banks are not so willing to lend) while company mostly intend to keep their cash for rainy day, we would see lesser deal, acquisition around.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jan 23 2009, 10:15 AM

Neo18 is the happy man.

Getting 12K cheque + capital appreciation.

Should go to 1.3x level.

That person is the "choy san ye" (cantonese).

Dispatching ang pow.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jan 23 2009, 10:44 AM

Gong Xi Fatt Chai to everyone, stock market has half session to go, not much activities can be seen.

This thread might hibernate until next Wednesday after today.

Within these few days holiday, people can "Huat" in the house or in gathering time.

Remisiers also "gathering' among themselves huh?

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Added on January 23, 2009, 4:42 pmCome on KLCI, should close at 868 for CNY festive. Haha

KLCI will be history another 6 months.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jan 23 2009, 04:42 PM

Even the previous 7 billion stimulus package also hasn't kicked start, if not mistaken.

Actually better use those 5 billions to inject into part of stimulus package as it is much better off for all. The most important issue is to reduce the retrenchment as much as possible.

Stock market rise or not is not that important, what's more important is to have a good and dynamic economy, by then stock market will follow suit automatically without needing to inject a single cent into the stock market.

DJ again rebound from the level of 79xx-8000, although it was a weak one.
DJ is now at the cross road already, a very crucial level in technical to determine which way it will go.

Oil and gold goes up, because currently invetors are scare of putting their money in equities, so with plenty of money being sideline, while interest rate at all time low across, your money need to be parked at some place, right? So there are a lot of investors flock into this area for time being.

Oil futures now running at strange spread, people can rent a tanker, then buy those oil and store in the tanker for several months or after 1 year time only take out to deliver to customers also can gain 20% out of it.
Because there is futures spread in oil futures ie. spot month oil is 42. But for next year delivery is around 52+. So you buy spot month take the delivery, store in the tanker (provided rent is not too expensive ) and now sell next year oil futures, and deliver afterwards, you will gain those spread without much risk, except the tanker being stolen.

When no one optimistic about the market, then you know bottom is not too far away.

People out there still buy and spend, just a reduction of like 20 - 30% of spending by each individual, it already enough to send the shock wave and resulted economy slowdown and recession.

It is not like shops will have zero sales, but from previous 1 million per month, now become 700K ~ 800K is already warrant for retrenhment as company need to cut cost while suspend expansion programme or upgrading purposes while needing less personnel to do the sales.

That's why employment is one of the most influential factor in the economy, as without people getting job, means no disposal income, i.e. we lose one potential consumer out there then it become a viscous cycle until the cycle stop then we only see the economy start to claim back up. That's where the stimulus package intends to do and its purpose ie. to put a stop on the sprillaring effect.

If oil price is staying at USD40 and above, generally it is positive for KLCI, as there are some support for plantation which weight more than 1/3 of KLCI.

What concern me is the oil price goes too high without economy recovery in sight which might prolong the recession.

Last night, US existing home sales is a pretty good number. When real estate in US stablise (which is the root of subprime and current financial mess) then economy recovery can be expected even a mild one which is a good sign for the stock market. Real estate market stablise will stop the sprillaring down effect or viscous cycle of the recession.

So watch tightly the housing number, once its turns, then market can turn because it is the root cause of massive writedown and financial difficulty by banks.

This forum is quiet as well.

People still holiday mood or still haven't wake up? haha

Q doesn't tell you the whole story most of the time.

It is just like playing poker, some cards are exposed but big players won't reveal the final card, so without the final card, you don't know whether it got pair or not or just a fluke.

It is people behaviour mah. Only buy when something goodie around.

Even at current price, its yield is still pretty attractive especially with FD rate going down, reit yield at 10%+ is very tempting indeed provided those yield doesn't drop much in the future.
For those invest in reit, generally FD rate is very influential factor for them.

Properties price surely won't go up in near future, just if those reit can secure their tenant for long duration one, it is a bargain right now. It is more on yield play instead of properties sector is bright at the moment.

I forsee the price will be softening after the ex-date which is kind of normal for those dividend stocks. For near term, maximum it can go is around 1.50. Don't think it will surge more than that due to still gloomy economy ahead. My opinoin only.

7.87 cents dividend.

What part you are not understanding on it?

Don't see anything complicated issue on it.

It is just a straight forward and norm procedure on announcement for dividend declaring. May be can highlight the part you are not clear about so that can precise point it out.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jan 29 2009, 09:43 PM

As standard, all are qouted as per share.