Is it Possible ??
http://bursastreet.blogspot.com/2009/01/ea...n-oriental.htmlTarget Price: RM1.95
Possible joint-development of Seri Tanjung Pinang 2 (STP2). Reclamation cost of 740ac is expected to cost a hefty c.RM3.9b (reclamation cost: RM120psf) or c.RM0.6b p.a. over a 6 year period. Based on Eastern & Oriental (EOB) internal net gearing limit of 1.0x and current net gearing of 0.8x, it will only be able to borrow another RM188m. Cash balance is at RM167m. We expect current gearing levels to be maintained because of 1) heavy working capital requirements of St Mary and STP1 condominium project 2) softer sales in FY09-10. Hence, financial muscles are vital to kick-start STP2.
New partner needed to expedite STP2 developments. On its own, EOB could reclaim the 740ac in parts. But with financing constraints, this strategy could extend the reclamation period beyond the concession expiry in 2017.
Reclamation cost could also increase i f reclamation is undertaken in several stages (higher mobilisation costs).
We favour tying up with a new partner to reduce project risks. The strategy also allows EOB to keep a ‘light enough’ balance sheet or enough room to capitalize on various market trends/bargain-value assets. No details of
potential partners have been disclosed, but we believe a private equity fund is likelier than another developer . Globally, many developers are struggling to juggle with their own projects.
Single digit PER of 8x for FY09E and 9x for FY10E, in line with sector’s average of 9x and 8x, respectively. On a PER valuation basis, EOB’s fair value at 8x PER based on FY10E EPS of 4.6sen is RM0.368 . However, it is not
reflective of the true value of a property development company, seeing that landbank values are realised over several years throughout the property cycle.
EOB’s is trading 71% below its NTA per share of RM1.45. Its 0.3x P/BV is one of the lowest versus peer average of 0.7x (Fig1). We opine that the deep discount is unwarranted given 1) its basket of prime niche landbank 2) strong
branding as a high -end developer 3) Malaysia’s land values are supported by steady organic growth.
Reiterating BUY recommendation with new target price of RM1.95 (previous RM3.54). Nevertheless, we conservatively tone down EOB valuations using more conservative land prices to reflect a subdued 2009
property market. STP2 valuations are also excluded until reclamation works commences. Even so, our fully diluted RNAV reveals a rich upside.
Major shareholders:
Dato’ Tham Ka Hon: 18.6%
Halfmoon Bay Cap: 10.3%
UBS AG London: 7.3%
Goldman Sachs Int: 6.1%
By K & N Kenanga
Posted by . at 9:38 PM
Labels: EASTERN And ORIENTAL BERHAD