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 Dividend Discount Model, Am I Using It Correctly?

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cherroy
post Dec 22 2008, 05:24 PM

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This model is good for reference, but lousy to guide one to buy a stock.

The calculation is perfectly ok, but not the growth rate, cannot measure like that, and also expectation return part, which is a clueless/baseless figure, no offence.

You don't buy a stock based on history as some are not able to sustain the EPS or those EPS might be just one off. You need to scrutinise the EPS part, as some EPS doesn't come from operation profit but can from through valuation adjustment.

Too simplified until can mislead. Don't get me wrong, those are perfectly ok figure to be reference, but you don't use those figure as a determine factor to make decision. Figure or data is a dead figure, you need interpretation and in depth analysis before can come out some conclusion.
cherroy
post Dec 24 2008, 10:09 AM

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QUOTE(normanTE @ Dec 23 2008, 10:09 PM)
whichever the technique, is equally good, we all want to achieve a goal buy low sell high after all,
buy now klse is 800 over point, no doubt it might drop futher, but how much futher 400 point? that is very unlikely if it does buy more probably can consider sell ure house and car to buy stock. then try to sell at 1200 point, no doubt it might go higher but afterall we already gain 1000 point profit.
repeat above cycle u be dying rich.

regard te.


Added on December 23, 2008, 10:10 pmadd one more point try to make it a chart and u will have better image, which to buy
*
Fundamental investment doesn't concentrate on buy low sell high (although it does, it is secondary), fundamental investors concentrate on profit and return that can generate to the shareholder which is primary reason why they want to invest into the company. Buy low sell high comes along with the ability of compnay to make profit for the shareholders. As if company able to generate more and more profit to the shareholders, then stock price will eventually go up with it.

Drop to 400 points, doesn't mean sell you house and car to buy stock is a good idea. Bare in mind when it drops to 400 points, then some company may go burst, not all stocks are the same. Stock pick is always the key or gaining in the stock market. Even it recovers to 1,200, some stocks may not recover at all while some already gone burst. We have plenty of historical example already to tell and teach us on this.

Technical analysis doesn't tell you this company is good company or not. While technical anlaysis is not a foolproof technique, it is good for reference for stock price movement, but it doesn't tell you whether the company is good to generate good return rate to the shareholder, nor it will tell you the company won't go burst.

Every tool is good but blindly follow and believe can be dangerous and costly, every tool needs be applied where it fit and applied appropriately which by then become a good guide and reference.

Just my 2 cents.


 

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