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 Stock market V17, Aftermath of Oct depression

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htt
post Nov 5 2008, 09:59 AM

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Obama win also might not change much of Mr. Market, see what happened to Mr. Ma and Taiwan tongue.gif What will come will come brows.gif
htt
post Nov 5 2008, 12:53 PM

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Sometime something never change... sad.gif
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post Nov 5 2008, 03:18 PM

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QUOTE(Baronic @ Nov 5 2008, 02:35 PM)
huaan plummeting lol
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Where got?
htt
post Nov 5 2008, 04:15 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Nov 5 2008, 04:01 PM)
Waiting at 20sen  hmm.gif
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Me too...
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post Nov 6 2008, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(sueway @ Nov 6 2008, 11:36 AM)
we shall be greed when ppl fear  hmm.gif
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Not that fear, yet... tongue.gif
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post Nov 7 2008, 11:41 AM

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QUOTE(eltaria @ Nov 7 2008, 11:32 AM)
The economics of trading?

Actually, I want to understand more on the logics of the traders here.
In the last few months we have seen shares dropping 30%+ of the top

If so, why would people keep selling their shares? Assuming some sold their shares at 30% discount back then, the buyers of those shares SL at 5% and so on, we can safely say that sellling shares now or at further discount will result in the law of diminishing return for the profit takes and further losses for the sellers.

In such a case, it's illogical for trades to continue is it not? As warren buffett says, the brokerage fees for certain counters is higher than the total annual net profit that the company makes.

We're paying 1 billion in brokerage fees, for a company that makes 1 million.

For example, one of those counters would be huaan I assume. The volume of trading is huge, but I doubt the entire net profit is equivalent to it.

Strangely odd, but there u go..
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Hua an making not a small profit, it might be bad in some eyes but good in others. Taking that as example of small profit vs. brokerage might not be appropriate. tongue.gif
I holding 0 Hua An, have no benefit to defend it, just fyi. But I am looking into loading back my position tongue.gif
htt
post Nov 7 2008, 12:04 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Nov 7 2008, 11:58 AM)
We do not earn comm by sharing info here.

We only got the blames when someone is losing money. Just wonder how they trade ?
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Calm calm... we all here to share info and thoughts, not quarrel against each others tongue.gif
I like Hua An because of its volume (and its fundamental, I don't want to get stuck with goreng stocks which might close shop tomorrow), I think some of us buying this because of that too, stocks with low volume very hard to get rid even when the market is up, because there might be no buyer when you try to sell. Just my 2 sens.


Added on November 7, 2008, 12:06 pm
QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 7 2008, 12:02 PM)
People buy and sell because they wanna profit - lah.. simple.. we are capitalists otherwise why else
doing here. rite? tongue.gif

Ok.. I will predict DJIA will be green tonight.. bargain hunters jump back in to grab more shares.
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Hard to say leh, GM & Ford... I try this afternoon or monday (or later) to 'share mana boleh beli' tongue.gif

This post has been edited by htt: Nov 7 2008, 12:06 PM
htt
post Nov 7 2008, 12:17 PM

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QUOTE(eltaria @ Nov 7 2008, 12:07 PM)
He's just saying how they trade, I find no offense in that.

Which is exactly my question itself, trade = making money off each other.

Instead of investing to earn a piece of the companies's net profit?


Added on November 7, 2008, 12:12 pmKLSE is crazy man, we may go green if this continues
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Holy shit, I just missed the boat??? blink.gif
htt
post Nov 7 2008, 04:41 PM

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Friday night coming smile.gif
Even Raja Petra can sleep peacefully at home... smile.gif

This post has been edited by htt: Nov 7 2008, 04:45 PM
htt
post Nov 7 2008, 05:07 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Nov 7 2008, 04:47 PM)
Why Sg and HK markets up , bro ?

Adam is right, commodities shares up in Europe.
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HK don't know, But SG expect for stable result from DBS tonight, drive by 2 banks & commodities stock like Wilmar & GA. Go, STI go... rclxms.gif
Oo... DBS retrench 900... profit drop 38%


Added on November 7, 2008, 5:07 pm
QUOTE(Vv.SoViEt.vV @ Nov 7 2008, 05:03 PM)
huaan sell coke? at first i tot coca cola = coke.
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If they sell that coke then they will be as stable as coca cola tongue.gif

This post has been edited by htt: Nov 7 2008, 05:13 PM
htt
post Nov 7 2008, 05:14 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Nov 7 2008, 05:10 PM)
I odeli retired as a spokeman for Huaan. Just hold 100 lots only.

Trade at your own risks.
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Hua an interesting trading stock... waiting at the sideline hmm.gif
htt
post Nov 7 2008, 05:21 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Nov 7 2008, 05:16 PM)
20sen,  buy orders.
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Stack your pillows higher, closed at 27 sen today... Monday come Monday come tongue.gif
htt
post Nov 7 2008, 06:48 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Nov 7 2008, 05:24 PM)
I managed to catch IOI at rm 2.95 ( 2000 shares only  ) , so leave Huaan aside first.
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IOI 3Q result out. profit drop ard 35%. Cash pile used to settle short term debt & stock buy back. But balance sheet look quite nice with little short term debt at the moment. tongue.gif
htt
post Nov 7 2008, 07:29 PM

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QUOTE(okyjace @ Nov 7 2008, 07:21 PM)
Personally, comparing the P&L from the same quarter last year isn't too helpful IMHO if the core business isn't very seasonal. If you compare against last quarter, the results are very mixed. Revenue growth is about 2.1% which isn't bad, but margins on resource manufacturing (by far the largest revenue segment) is down. Will be interesting to see if they can pass on higher costs to constomers and recover their margins.
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I was not looking at IOI previously, my favorite plantation stocks are Asiatics & HS Plant blush.gif A bit lazy to look for last quarter's result and just post some general remarks (since sky caught some, for his info only, and other forumers as well) blush.gif
But I think they are moving in the right direction to trim their debt, also their cash generating power remain strong, think current year will be all right for them in the very least, long term prospect remain intact as the price had been beaten down a lot, good long term play tongue.gif
htt
post Nov 8 2008, 09:58 AM

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QUOTE(espree @ Nov 7 2008, 10:05 PM)
Ok.. so r they considered like blue chip stock or second board?
how stable r those MESDAQ stock?
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You have to do your homework, there are some good company there also. Which one you targeted? hmm.gif
htt
post Nov 8 2008, 04:39 PM

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QUOTE(keith_hjinhoh @ Nov 8 2008, 04:33 PM)
Perhaps you've forgotten that we still have domestic market, and i see the people around supermarket, hypermarket is still there, so our local people still have quite strong purchasing power despite economies downturn.
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But Malaysia's economy is mainly export orientated or depends on other countries e.g. tourist. Domestic demand is too small for us, unlike China. And even China have problem to jump start their economy with their domestic demand. And even domestic purchasing power might gradually reduce, in view with weak palm oil, weak oil, weak electronics, weak construction.... cry.gif
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post Nov 8 2008, 09:43 PM

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QUOTE(Oracles99 @ Nov 8 2008, 07:27 PM)
Of course, there is no credit crunch at this moment. The time lag for the effects to be felt in our local economy is 6 months.

The credit crunch will only come if NPLs starts pouring in. When NPLs starts growing, the multiplier effect will go backwards resulting in reduced lending n shrinkage of the economy.
I could recall that up to Dec 1997, consumer spending has still not weakened. Hence, the state of denial of the then Mahathir administration. The hurricane was felt in 1998.

Most likely, our interest rates will be cut next year. But this is a double edged sword. Those depending on FD interest to survive will suffer.

With FD rates down, the government will hope that people will plough their hard earned savings into the stock market or buy snake oil from those unit trust sales people. But how many would dare to take the risk. The government would borrow those savings to spend to starve off a recession.

It must noted that Warren Buffet bought the shares on favourable terms which an ordinary investor is not able to get. Lee Kah Shing bought Bank of East Asia shares to show that he has confidence in the Hong Kong economy.

I remembered in 1997, my friends bought UEM related shares which plunged from RM25 to RM6. I asked him the rationale for buying this share. He said that there is no need to worry as the share had fallen enough. Eventually, this share dropped below RM1-00.

In my opinion, we are seeing a replay of the events that took place in 1997/1998 but maybe this time around the slowdown will not be that severe.
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This time round is a bit different from last time, because center of the storm is in US, others get hit indirectly (I means most of them, UK might be another storm, so do Iceland etc). Malaysia get hit by lower demand for our goods & commodities, and other services like tourism. How to sail through the storm depends on the skill of the captain, I means CEO & boards of company, some of them had been waiting for this opportunities for years, the rest might had been prepared themselves for that, the worst kind are those who sailing against the wind at the moment, they might be trying very hard now but too bad hard works are not enough, sometimes.

I personally feel this might be an opportunity for us, to seek the opportunities to grow our wealth (if that consider as tongue.gif). Some say what did not kill you only made you stronger, but I think this will be valid if you get through it relatively unharmed. I am here to read what other people might feel on the market, because no man is an island, we need input from others in our own decision, others can have totally incoherent view with me but I have my own free choice to take others view or not.

Oracles seems like a doomsday supporter, but his/ her view still valid until certain extend. My personal view is the market will keep going south until 1Q/2Q'09 the very least, then we will see another recovering circle. Just my 2 cents. Cheers, what will come will come icon_rolleyes.gif
htt
post Nov 8 2008, 10:42 PM

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But nevertheless, oracles provide us with fresh inputs & ideas (with substance, too). Welcome on board, oracles. rclxms.gif
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post Nov 9 2008, 01:50 PM

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QUOTE(AdamG1981 @ Nov 9 2008, 10:10 AM)
LOL.....sorry i can't. All i can say is; long commodity stocks.  laugh.gif

Unfortunately, many people i know is going to long commodity futures and speculate that oil and crude palm oil will head north from here. We might see oil heading to high 80s. smile.gif


Added on November 9, 2008, 10:12 amToday's meeting at KLCC starbucks from 12 pm - 2 pm.
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This is a heated weekend... rclxms.gif

I agree we have to long on commodities, partly because other sectors might down for a long time, but partly because we failing to move up on the value chain, we actually stayed where we were for years. And education system might play a part in that, as well as other policy. We have to be strong to compete with other globally flex.gif , if we still stay in a denial state, we might be staying there forever.

At the moment commodities stocks are beaten down, but I think we might see them lower in coming months, due to investors behavior to rush to safe heaven during difficult time. Those with brave heart (a strong one tongue.gif ) and stomach would see their rewards coming in eventually, but how to jump into the market at the correct timing remains the finest art to be master tongue.gif .

O&G companies on KLSE mainly doing mainly construction & maintenance, I would like to invest on someone who own the field (too bad Petronas is not listed tongue.gif ). I does not mean their (those listed on KLSE) business are no good, but they rather depends on contracts awarded to them and as we know, the criteria to award contracts is sometime quite vague.
htt
post Nov 9 2008, 01:55 PM

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QUOTE(aurora97 @ Nov 9 2008, 01:52 PM)
This oil cuts and increases r kind of laughable, in a span of 1 yr we have experience extreme lows and extreme highs on oil prices.

When Opec steps in and start cutting oil prices, price of oil rocket (for abit). A few more cuts here and there, more cuts here and there...

In Opec's mind they see oil prices low means cut production, rather than to stabilize the price deemed reasonable and according to market demand.

conclusion?

You have Opec either cutting to much during oil demand is "high" or for that matter very high (and vice versa)... and causing prices to sky rocket to insane levels again. There wont be price stabilization any time soon rather than a flactuating yo-yo..

I believe the current low in Oil prices is due to the effects of supplies kicking in when oil prices were at USD 140 a barrel. When everyone was screamin for more oil productions.
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If they do so, they risk the global economy as a whole, I believe they should be rational enough to understand their important role to others. tongue.gif

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