I have heard many opinion as of when market will bottom. Some said very soon while on contrarian saying that we might experience the next great depression. So lets do a poll to know what everyone's view. I'm referring to global market in general.

the bottom is reach us end of 2008...so we see 2009 quiet year and 2010 start recovering...
All company are panic now how to survive still 2010...

2010 recovering ?? So optimistic. Many have said that the coming wave will have a bigger impact than the one we suffered in 1997. So I really doubt if anyone could "recover" in 2010. Of course, it also depends on your definition on the word "recover" also. According to the latest IMF report, US will have a stagnant economy grow from now on until mid of 2009, but that's just a forecast. The wave has not even finished and IMF already forecast no economy growth for US until mid of next year, so let's assume the full wave hit, predict the REAL impact on global economy anyone ??

From my opinion, I dont think the crisis has finished, not so soon, at least not this year. CDS and the downfall of Lehman and AIG has just sparked up crisis. Moreover with so many countries following the financial institution bailout strategy of US, the real crisis have just warmed up. Imagine those stupid execs in AIG finished the 700b what will happened again, same sh*t as long as they dont put up a solution to fix the real problem, Bernanke knew it and that's why he called for a stimulus instead of stimulant bailout. Those bailouts are just making everyone life tougher than ever. So I predict (take my word at your own risk, I'm no certified economist , blow water only) the real crisis will hit only at mid of 2009, it's waiting for "some"thing to happen to trigger the real big wave.

"BMW Malaysia sales rise 32pc " thanks to our stock market.

Its just that most of people not in the 5%

Making money in stock market is EASY. IF U...

in my opinion i think i will ends at least not in 2008.of course one can predict future.But from the recent news,beside real estate and financial industry in deep problem,accoring to many economist, the manufacture and retail industry start feel the impact too.just look at wat happen to GM.

GM's problem was not started recently. GM has not able to make profit for the past few years. High operational costs and losing market share to Toyota and Honda in their home ground are the biggest contributors to their loss for the past few years.

However, you are right, when the property and financial industries suffers, everyone suffers.

Year 2020. This greatest economic depression will last a decade. Go to sleep

the start hasnt even begun yet....

---

Added on October 25, 2008, 12:11 pmmy prediction.. its on a downward fall till year end.. the start of next year would be worst.. it wont recover till nxt year end..

This post has been edited by ruztynail: Oct 25 2008, 12:11 PM

no comment, i know this should be different from 1998, but just a reference
http://bp0.blogger.com/_mh3t3uvFulM/R3Mx3E...sian_crisis.jpg


composite index was 300+ in 1998

This post has been edited by sueway: Oct 25 2008, 09:03 PM

the lowest was 263pts on 01/09/1998. Yup this time is different, it's worse than 1998.

how to say worst?
shop is expanding
last time where got so many franchise bizness?
last time ppl whre got spend on food stall
last time where got so many branded shops

transportation is improving
information is more easily flow through
more mobile user and broadband user
i would say ppl now are more knowledge in handling crisis
compare with 98 and now so big diferent

crisis will be temporary only


This post has been edited by benlaw: Oct 25 2008, 09:58 PM

that's becoz the effect takes time to reach local shore. It's already coming sonny. Sooner u ll see many shops and SMI closing down, ppl get retrenched, more vacant offices and shoplot & more ATM robbery (this is a clear sign of great economy depression)

lets share wifi with neighbour, why pay more

This post has been edited by sueway: Oct 27 2008, 03:46 PM

i agree with singh kalan but then in economy. anything can happen.

if one predicts the economy will be bad for 10 years there are two possibilities

either the crisis resolves within 10 yrs or it will prolong untill war breaks out

about the year 2020 recovery, its just a joke. Don't take it seriously...and hopefully it won't last that long.

Now, it is ATM machine bombing.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Oct 29 2008, 04:35 PM

Based on the trend analysis of 1997 and current 2008, the current KLCI chart is an exact carbon copy of the 1997 downtrend chart. There's no turning back di, its going south....

during 97, KLCI drop frm how much to 2xx? how many % drop?
during 08, KLCI drop frm 15xx to -unknown-
may b v can forecast the bottom by knowing the drop % during 97?

This post has been edited by fergie1100: Oct 29 2008, 06:05 PM

prepare own food also dont know say handle what crisis?

Food crisis In case happened the scenario where you holding RM100 but still cant afford to buy a bread like what happened to USSR many years ago.

So gentlemen, welcome to the '08 Roller Coaster ride, please put on your seat belt and your helmet if you can afford one.

If applied to Dow Jones where will it be one year from now? After all they have problems no smaller than ours. In fact their financial institutions are bankrupt, more than ours.

So Dow coming down to 3000!!!

If that happens we might revisit 200+.

It seems with the rally these few days, the market has bottomed.

I doubt it has bottomed, this could be a bear trap.

Note that the US is in a recession, with unemployment probably rising and growth diminishing for the next year, I don't think we are out of the woods yet. Credit is still a problem, businesses are cutting back/contracting, and economists see European countries going into a recession as well.

It is bottom when there is a U shaped.... but if you seen it, that means it already has passed.

not yet passed gua maybe got another W shape ler

I Guess It Will Be Q4 2009 Or Next 2 years (somewhere in 2010)

Since Now Just The Starting..

Getting Worse Soon..

haha.....best jokes of 2008.

Glad you liked it.

I think you still need to monitor for another few weeks before making that conclusion. I personally think that it will probably happen in 2009.

I think the last 1 or 2 months of the drop in the KLCI index is mostly due to foreign investors pulling out their funds. Hence the big selldown and the sudden drop in the KLCI. I think most of the foreign funds have more or less been pulled out of the KLCI.

The next drop in the KLCI will be more gradual, when companies start to report less than expected earnings, or even losses.

Then retrenchment comes and people sell off their stocks to pay their bills. This,.. I think would be the last stage of drop in the KLCI.

Do you agree with my projection? What do you think?

Yup, that would be around 300pts based on my estimation.

Outlook
http://www.bernama.com.my/bernama/v3/news_...s.php?id=373965

market wont be recovering so fast as can see US losses trillion of dollar and so as many countries losses talking about billions. subprime issue, lehman brother,gm motor, citibank, small bank bankrupt,inflation,recession etc all not settle yet and still alot of of other hidden issue undisclose yet.

can for see dont talk about 1- 2 years time to recover the $$. even 10 years also cannot recover as can see

simple just take as a normal person losses rm100k, how long and what business will it take to recover back the $$ in this kind of economy, and now countrys talking about billions of $$ loss. Print more $$.

eg. epf buying from the top to the bottom alot of different shares, if audit the paper loss will billions. from rm10 down to rm2 still buying how much $$ have been put into the shares and to breakeven for a particular counter only. epf have been buying so many counters and still holding, bcos not their $$ just report invest losses thats it.

dont think epf wont loss, even loss more. for small player buying from top till bottom (breakeven) also cannot tahan, do u think epf can tahan.


better be careful. even blue chip counter can be privatise at alower value in time to come and no chance for rebound which u have bought at a high price.

This post has been edited by lowyat888: Dec 3 2008, 10:54 PM

Quote

"Companies that say, yes we are affected and we’re modifying our plans to cope with the challenging environment – buy these companies.

“Companies that say, no we’re not affected – sell these companies, as they have no sense of realism!” says Mowat.

End Quote

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...06&sec=business

The 2nd sentence sounds so familiar.... like I've heard someone said before that Malaysia is insulated and is not affected by the financial crisis in US. There you have it. Anybody who says Malaysia is not affected have no sense of realism.

i love this words...because i'm already within this 5% groups-no problem with the market at all..if it's going to the top..i'm making profit..when get to the bottom..i'm also making huge profit..so what's the matter?