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 Stock market V16, Greed when people fear!

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cherroy
post Oct 22 2008, 01:58 PM

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Here we go again, "red bath".
USD break the resistance against Euro and surging quite drastically across. The USD strength really is unstoppable for time being. sweat.gif

While oil & gold plunging again.
panasonic88
post Oct 22 2008, 02:00 PM

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i see opportunities. biggrin.gif

still early to jump in.
cherroy
post Oct 22 2008, 02:02 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Oct 22 2008, 02:00 PM)
i see opportunities. biggrin.gif

still early to jump in.
*
I see opportunities from until at least into second Q of 2009. smile.gif

It won't be quick fix and quick turn around.
AdamG1981
post Oct 22 2008, 02:04 PM

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I am armed and loaded in the US market. biggrin.gif

Still maintaining my bearish bias on the local mart.


Added on October 22, 2008, 2:04 pmDOW futures -106.


Added on October 22, 2008, 2:11 pmAUSSIE/USD: 60 cents fast approaching?? LOL!!! biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Oct 22 2008, 02:11 PM
Crossbone
post Oct 22 2008, 02:22 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 22 2008, 01:58 PM)
Here we go again, "red bath".
USD break the resistance against Euro and surging quite drastically across. The USD strength really is unstoppable for time being.  sweat.gif

While oil & gold plunging again.
*
and people back then thought the USD is fast becoming the new zimbabwe dollar laugh.gif

how long do you think the USD rally will last?
dEviLs
post Oct 22 2008, 02:28 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 22 2008, 01:58 PM)
Here we go again, "red bath".
USD break the resistance against Euro and surging quite drastically across. The USD strength really is unstoppable for time being.  sweat.gif

While oil & gold plunging again.
*
Silver Price Strength Hints that the Gold Price May be Ready to Turn Around
http://goldprice.org/silver-and-gold-price...-that-gold.html

Is gold price going to make a u-turn ? unsure.gif
fergie1100
post Oct 22 2008, 02:33 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 22 2008, 01:58 PM)
Here we go again, "red bath".
USD break the resistance against Euro and surging quite drastically across. The USD strength really is unstoppable for time being.  sweat.gif

While oil & gold plunging again.
*
i wonder y during bad econ.... especially in US... the US dollar still can stay strong? any reason?
AdamG1981
post Oct 22 2008, 02:36 PM

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Simple,

US is the most transparent market, and with the new stimulus bill fast approaching, many foreign traders and investors are selling euro and other currencies to purchase US ASSETS, yes this includes homes, and US equities along with US T-bills.

Compare Malaysia and US, both PE ratio now are very low in historical standards but if you want to analyze further, emerging markets will take a longer time to recover. The US mart has to recover first before the emerging market does.


Added on October 22, 2008, 2:44 pmYes,

Euro/USD: 1.30 (check) 1.28 currently

AUD/USD: 0.60 (halfway there) 0.66 currently

GBP/USD: 1.60 (NEARLY there) 1.63 currently


Added on October 22, 2008, 2:56 pmPBB selling GBP/MYR @ 5.84!!! WOOHOO

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Oct 22 2008, 02:56 PM
cherroy
post Oct 22 2008, 02:58 PM

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QUOTE(AdamG1981 @ Oct 22 2008, 02:36 PM)
Simple,

US is the most transparent market, and with the new stimulus bill fast approaching, many foreign traders and investors are selling euro and other currencies to purchase US ASSETS, yes this includes homes, and US equities along with US T-bills.

*
Still I still think people are flocking into T-bill is the majority force, as it is not coincidence that everytime strong USD rally come with T-bill yield sink sharply.

The safest place in turbulence time is always stay close with Taiko, don't simply run outside. biggrin.gif
That's why USD rallying as people fear factor is still high.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Oct 22 2008, 03:00 PM
AdamG1981
post Oct 22 2008, 03:00 PM

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The yields for the T-bills have been increasing lately. It seems to me the bears are losing the tug of war with the bulls this week. Even if DJIA went down, there's buying interest across the board. Hm, maybe its just me.
keelim
post Oct 22 2008, 03:06 PM

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KLCI in declining mood now.
darkknight81
post Oct 22 2008, 03:07 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 22 2008, 03:58 PM)
The safest place in turbulence time is always stay close with Taiko, don't simply run outside.  biggrin.gif
That's why USD rallying as people fear factor is still high.
*
thumbup.gif
cherroy
post Oct 22 2008, 03:10 PM

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QUOTE(keelim @ Oct 22 2008, 03:06 PM)
KLCI in declining mood now.
*
Consider mild already, look at regional bourses, mostly are down 5% and more. sweat.gif

You won't often see stock market sink, up or swing more than 5% per day, recently month market moves 5% is seemed like norm, max go to 10%, it is rare by historical standard, this happens only once or twice in decade time.
SKY 1809
post Oct 22 2008, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(AdamG1981 @ Oct 22 2008, 02:04 PM)
I am armed and loaded in the US market. biggrin.gif

Still maintaining my bearish bias on the local mart.


Added on October 22, 2008, 2:04 pmDOW futures -106.


Added on October 22, 2008, 2:11 pmAUSSIE/USD: 60 cents fast approaching?? LOL!!! biggrin.gif
*
You think like Warren Buffet. Greeds when there is fear.





AdamG1981
post Oct 22 2008, 03:12 PM

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KLCI will tumble tomorrow after tonight's US oil inventories. smile.gif

Oil to hit 65 before OPEC meeting.


cherroy
post Oct 22 2008, 03:13 PM

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Even for US market, previously when we saw VIX at 30+ to 40, it is considered very high already, but just prior days before, the VIX went up as high as 80, which is a shocker. shocking.gif shocking.gif
AdamG1981
post Oct 22 2008, 03:13 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Oct 22 2008, 12:12 AM)
You think like Warren Buffet. Greeds  when there is fear.
*
Unfortunately i have to buy junk stocks like RBS, ETFC to make my living sad.gif He's way more loaded than i am, and can take multiple hits.


Added on October 22, 2008, 3:15 pm
QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 22 2008, 12:13 AM)
Even for US market, previously when we saw VIX at 30+ to 40, it is considered very high already, but just prior days before, the VIX went up as high as 80, which is a shocker.  shocking.gif  shocking.gif
*
LOL!!!! I pee in my pants when i saw VIX at 80. I was expecting a upswing/downswing of more than a 1000 points.



This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Oct 22 2008, 03:15 PM
SKY 1809
post Oct 22 2008, 03:16 PM

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QUOTE(AdamG1981 @ Oct 22 2008, 03:13 PM)
Unfortunately i have to buy junk stocks like RBS, ETFC to make my living sad.gif He's way more loaded than i am, and can take multiple hits.


Added on October 22, 2008, 3:15 pm

LOL!!!! I pee in my pants when i saw VIX at 80. I was expecting a upswing/downswing of more than a 1000 points.
*
Never mind lah, when he retires , you take over loh.

I also just bought some junk stock , Huaan. Hopefully, would not end up like toilet papers in years to come.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Oct 22 2008, 03:19 PM
cherroy
post Oct 22 2008, 03:19 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Oct 22 2008, 03:12 PM)
You think like Warren Buffet. Greeds  when there is fear.
*
There is a difference between retialers like us compared to Warren Buffett, although this phrase is always good to remind us about opportunities.
The dilemma for retailer is, if market fear for 1 year, retailer can't greed for 1 year, unless got significant resources. wink.gif

This current market condition can drag for years, before some meaningful and solid recovery is in place.

Having said that, there are pocket of oppoprtunities around and from time to time.
darkknight81
post Oct 22 2008, 03:22 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Oct 22 2008, 04:19 PM)
There is a difference between retialers like us compared to Warren Buffett, although this phrase is always good to remind us about opportunities.
The dilemma for retailer is, if market fear for 1 year, retailer can't greed for 1 year, unless got significant resources.  wink.gif

This current market condition can drag for years, before some meaningful and solid recovery is in place.

Having said that, there are pocket of oppoprtunities around and from time to time.
*
Dividend stock do give dividend. Might be lesser but income is still there. brows.gif

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