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 Top Glove 7113, High speed growth

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icemanfx
post Nov 30 2020, 02:58 PM

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QUOTE(Sir Talks Alot @ Nov 30 2020, 02:50 PM)
Should be flying anytime soon after SPMX.

I still hold TG, originally wanted to sell last Friday but I believe in the fundamentals.
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Expect price movement before qr.

icemanfx
post Feb 6 2021, 01:02 PM

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QUOTE(SgtScoop @ Feb 6 2021, 12:42 PM)
Nobody is expecting glove sales to go back to pre-covid levels.

The average analyst prediction for revenue in FY22 is roughly RM15bn.

Throw in the predicted RM10bn profits for FY21 and you have a bargain stock.

Sales will decline in FY23 but will still be way higher than FY19.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/bull...21-falling-fy22
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Current demand of face mask is a few times of pre-pandemic level but some could get price cheaper than pre pandemic due to supply>demand. Similarly will occur to gloves.

If immunization proceed as planned, gloves demand in u.s and e.u will likely waterfall in Q3/21.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Feb 6 2021, 01:04 PM
icemanfx
post Feb 7 2021, 02:53 PM

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QUOTE(SgtScoop @ Feb 7 2021, 02:13 PM)
Yeah, that's not what the analysts are predicting though.

Face masks are being bought by individuals but gloves aren't. Gloves are bought by hospitals and medical facilities mostly. Hospitals in Europe and the US are running at full capacity, hence the lockdowns. A lot of surgery is being postponed because the hospitals are full of covid patients. When the pandemic ends, those hospitals will return to 90% capacity. Nurses and doctors will still need to wear gloves and dispose of them once used on one patient.

We will see a fall in glove sales but only to 80-90% of pandemic sales.
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Supply > demand is matter of by how much.

icemanfx
post Feb 9 2021, 09:08 PM

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QUOTE(SgtScoop @ Feb 9 2021, 06:55 PM)
The analysts are predicting that the demand for gloves will continue to be high through 2023.

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines.../strong-rebound
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It is natural for vested to believe high demand and high asp to last for many years. However, the reality will be different.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Feb 9 2021, 09:33 PM
icemanfx
post Feb 10 2021, 01:11 PM

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Dividend payment is one off; share price may drop after priced in or ex-dividend. topg, supermax, etc should use extraordinary profit for investment in other industry for long term growth.

icemanfx
post Feb 10 2021, 03:11 PM

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QUOTE(MedElite23 @ Feb 10 2021, 02:33 PM)
For TG to venture into another industry is an outright dumb idea.
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That would depends on the top management. there are many plc e.g aagb badly affected by the pandemic which topg could pick up for a quarterly profit and these companies could generate income after pandemic and glove elevated asp has ended.

icemanfx
post Feb 10 2021, 04:01 PM

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QUOTE(MedElite23 @ Feb 10 2021, 03:42 PM)
When it could, doesn’t mean it should. TG is world-leader in the glove manufacturing industry, shareholders invest in TG for that sole reason, not for them to expand to an industry they have no expertise in. Glove demand continues to soar even AFTER pandemic ends, one will not be receptive to FACTS when the mind is closed.
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glove demand after pandemic ends may be higher than pre-pandemic level but price could be lower like face mask.

with appropriate package, top management could be head hunted. buying into existing business with existing management is lower risks than start up.

icemanfx
post Feb 10 2021, 05:22 PM

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QUOTE(MedElite23 @ Feb 10 2021, 04:56 PM)
Contact lenses segment is under healthcare industry, and Supermax has been in it all these while. Not jumping into an irrelevant industry like acquiring AAGB mentioned by icemanx. It’s stupid.
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You remember this.
icemanfx
post Feb 10 2021, 06:15 PM

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QUOTE(MedElite23 @ Feb 10 2021, 05:36 PM)
For reasons, the herd is destined to end up in the slaughterhouse or over the cliff.
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indeed. we could revisit here after pandemic has ended and review topg business.

icemanfx
post Feb 10 2021, 06:31 PM

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QUOTE(MedElite23 @ Feb 10 2021, 06:20 PM)
It is natural for those non-vested to believe demand and asp will drop after pandemic. However, the reality will be different.
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Time will tell and won't need to wait long.


icemanfx
post Feb 10 2021, 06:57 PM

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QUOTE(MedElite23 @ Feb 10 2021, 06:41 PM)
If one understands how syndicate operates will think otherwise.
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Most retailers have no idea they were syndicate's prey.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Feb 10 2021, 07:03 PM
icemanfx
post Feb 10 2021, 08:03 PM

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QUOTE(MedElite23 @ Feb 10 2021, 07:15 PM)
A retailer trying to discern himself from other retailers, face thicker than wall. thumbup.gif
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Only about 4% of adults in this country have over us$100k net worth.
icemanfx
post Jul 5 2021, 05:01 PM

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QUOTE(VincentCS @ Jul 5 2021, 12:05 AM)
2.5 is laughably low. Sure ASP and demand will normalize. But don't forget the CASH they accumulated and investments made.

3.5 seems fair by JP morgan
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Not long ago, 3.5 was laughable low by many.

icemanfx
post Jul 8 2021, 04:20 PM

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With all intents and purposes, topg has reached last December JPM target price.

Next question, will topg overshoot and by how much?
icemanfx
post Jul 10 2021, 08:36 AM

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Police are investigating Top Glove for allegedly moving 1,606 of its workers out of their dormitories in Petaling Jaya to eight hotels prior to the imposition of an enhanced movement control order (MCO) there.

https://m.malaysiakini.com/news/582422
icemanfx
post Jul 11 2021, 09:20 AM

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Forced labour claims in Malaysian glove industry intensify as Covid-19-driven demand leads to significant change in supply chain — report

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/forc...nificant-change

If current practice persist, e.u and u.k are likely to blacklist certain companies or products.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jul 11 2021, 09:21 AM
icemanfx
post Jul 20 2021, 09:09 AM

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QUOTE(hybr1d3d @ Jul 20 2021, 03:33 AM)
1) New Competitors (Not only from Malaysia) booming up.
2) ASP dropping
3) panic buy dropping
4) government getting poorer (forcing them closer to collect windfall tax)
5) US keep condemning Malaysia glove makers time to time.
6) more costly to resolve labour wellness issue. (unless they fully reformed into IR 4.0 with minimum labour)

conclusion: not until next massive pandemic in 5 to 10 years to have the same miracle happen again.
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These were irritating white noise in q4/20 and may be still is to 💎 ✋

icemanfx
post Aug 17 2021, 02:50 PM

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user posted image


This post has been edited by icemanfx: Aug 17 2021, 02:53 PM
icemanfx
post Sep 1 2021, 12:40 PM

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user posted image

user posted image

Downtrend continue.

higher rubber glove price probably caused by lockdown in klang.

who doesn't know daughter, sister, mother is woman noise, noise, noise and noise!

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 1 2021, 12:54 PM
icemanfx
post Sep 7 2021, 07:36 PM

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Hartalega is currently operating only at 70% of its capacity utilising 60% of its workforce, Kuan said.
....
Hartalega sees the average selling price of gloves to normalize by the first quarter of next year after having been on a downtrend since its peak moving into second of the year, Kuan said.

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...o-glove-market/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/202...-hartalega-says

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Sep 7 2021, 07:51 PM

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