i saw bullish movement on EU market ...expecting to completing subwave-5 within wave 5 , once it break 1.4895 , it will go further up 1.5085

p/s god's will

hahaha, actually it is true ..never trade during news comes ...it will make your day too hazardous ...harharhahrhar

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Added on September 26, 2008, 5:15 pmi saw the Eu daily is still uptrend ..

look at this wave count . If you able to see the B sign at the right hand corner there ..that's the point where EU will be going ..after that EU will go down to complete the ABC wave ..

any elliotician able to correct me ?



This post has been edited by kevler: Sep 26 2008, 05:17 PM

depends ..sometimes FA will deny the trend ..

remember back when GU and EU is bearish ...and UJ also going bearish instead bullish ... damned ..i lost with my technical analysis at that time ...

i think i should stop trading from today ..as the market is not smooth like before ..too many zig-zag, flat , double zig-zag on dolar pair ..and also some Yen pair ..damned

too many false signal ...

Five Wave Pattern: Dominant Trend

Wave 1: Wave one is rarely obvious at its inception. When the first wave of a new bull market begins, the fundamental news is almost universally negative. The previous trend is considered still strongly in force. Fundamental analysts continue to revise their earnings estimates lower; the economy probably does not look strong. Sentiment surveys are decidedly bearish, put options are in vogue, and implied volatility in the options market is high. Volume might increase a bit as prices rise, but not by enough to alert many technical analysts.

Wave 2: Wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad. As prices retest the prior low, bearish sentiment quickly builds, and "the crowd" haughtily reminds all that the bear market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% (see Fibonacci section below) of the wave one gains, and prices should fall in a three wave pattern.

Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three’s midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1.

Wave 4: Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three. Volume is well below than that of wave three. This is a good place to buy a pull back if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, the most distinguishing feature of fourth waves is that they often prove very difficult to count.

Wave 5: Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high, the indicator does not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received).


Three Wave Pattern: Corrective Trend

Wave A: Corrections are typically harder toidentify than impulse moves. In wave A of a bear market, the fundamental news is usually still positive. Most analysts see the drop as a correction in a still-active bull market. Some technical indicators that accompany wave A include increased volume, rising implied volatility in the options markets and possibly a turn higher in open interest in related futures markets.

Wave B: Prices reverse higher, which many see as a resumption of the now long-gone bull market. Those familiar with classical technical analysis may see the peak as the right shoulder of a head and shoulders reversal pattern. The volume during wave B should be lower than in wave A. By this point, fundamentals are probably no longer improving, but they most likely have not yet turned negative.

Wave C: Prices move impulsively lower in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched. Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond.

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Added on October 5, 2008, 11:51 am

something we can ponder tomorrow


EU will rallying to 1.32xx .. woohoo ....i need to subscribe CNN and CNBC later @Astro

This post has been edited by kevler: Oct 5 2008, 11:51 AM

there is 2 pattern I saw in GU chart TF2H

1 - zig-zag , where GU will heading south , expecting below than 1.74xx

2. - flat , where GU will go bullish , expecting up to 1.81xx , but GU need to go south first to find its own "support" (expecting 1.72xx) before it able to bullish

agreed with mph , the trend still bearish ...enuff said


p/s belanja me if your trade "mengena" this time

This post has been edited by kevler: Oct 5 2008, 06:45 PM

For EU TF4H, I got some advice from the chart , based on Elliot wave counting

It says ...


SELL advice

This is a very negative signal! Three consecutive wave degrees show a clear NEGATIVE trend, as well as a negative
EASI, which indicates that the target has not yet been reached.
Check if the wave degrees are the time frames you trade.

An interesting price swing for investors. A conservative price move of in general approximately 5% or more is indicated, depending on how far the price move has progressed already, see the target below.
From Minor to Minuette Wave degrees the trends are all DOWN. Most likely the target of the Minuettte wave degree, which is in wave 4, will be reached at 1.3552 or percentagewise 1.8250%
Quite often also the target of the next wave degree could be reached at 1.3104, which is in wave 3.


From this explaination , I believe EU is really2 in deep trouble now ..huhu..watch my chart below and judge yourself ..

maybe this explaination could help you , my fren



it means you need to trade 3 and a quarter of the apex . you need to measure the apex first before u make any movement

This post has been edited by kevler: Oct 6 2008, 11:06 AM

good God !


more than 800 pips ...damned i envy u ..haha

yerp..the symmetrical triangle is right ..but from wave point of view ..i need to count the wave + identifying the pattern

this kind of pattern usually flat or zig-zag ..but we can measure and determine the apex

This post has been edited by kevler: Oct 6 2008, 12:11 PM

as what i'm already expected , EU will drop 1.32xx ..

love it or hate it

for UJ 15min , i can't decide as the market still flat ...but the trend still bearish ..

There is no trading opportunity.

The Minute wave degree is pointing down, but the shorter trends are undecided.

Minimally we need 2 consecutive trends or wave degrees pointing in the same direction.

what we can do , is wait

somehow i agreed with this counting ..at this moment



chart = GJ 4hour

the trend still bearish ...

if you see weekly chart ..u will find a nice trendline going south ...from what i see ..

174.xx for 1st target profit ..
172.xx for 2nd target profit ..
170.xx for 3rd target profit ..


Disclaimer :
but trade with care ..dont simply believe my word if you didn't see it in the chart ..

i need to stop from trading for now ..

market is too harsh ..hehhee


got some losses ..but i need to get back to basic EW

thanks mate ..maybe i need to focus on smaller timeframe especially 5min ...buy from bottom , sell from top

while we in economic turmoil ...perhaps scalping is the best solution i can use by the way ..

p/s i'm looking forward for Eu/Aud currency ..the spread is more disaster then GJ ...try with your own risk ..

u need to trade with that pair first ..then you'll know how that pair able to give you more profit ...but follow the trend as usual ...

trend is your friend

there is no tips ..just focus on observing market pattern ..and always stick to your system .

huhu

any type of laptop can do the job ..


even my Metatrader software run like a horse in my Mac

no ..i'm an engineer ..but still forex is my 1st priority

EJ TF15min already break trendline one 122.42 , so let it flow with bullish trend now

p/s it's been a while , since my last posting