not to forget...Treasuries arent doing that well on it sales. UK and European government bonds are rising.

hm..perhaps the reports later could give a little boost for EU to move up...

anyway, here's some important news for forex traders...read here

USD got weakened, but was strengthened after HP and Home Depot announce profit gained, it'll not be the major trend. Just follow where the money goes or at least, for the time being, there's no reason for USD go continue its bullish run.

hm..finally, EU made the up move....hope it's sustainable..

i wanna join for the coffee too

anyway, anyone has historical data for MYR, against any other major currencies, that can be viewed in candlesticks?

hm...i was expecting sooner...somewhere around early 2009

i was expecting it to move by late Dec 08 or Jan 09, but oil dropped below $50 earlier than expected...gonna see how it closes this month

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Added on November 23, 2008, 12:53 amEU may need a new high well above 1.2926 within 2 weeks to make a significance, where oil would retest at $56

This post has been edited by small-jeff: Nov 23 2008, 12:53 AM

hm..as said last week, i believe Euro will gain against the Dollar, while GBP is still stuck at 1.5045, as oil will rise on Monday. Oil is now at back above 50...will need to see how Wall Street react...

@mph:
from my triangle of EU, it has already made a BO, and also a pull back, the major resistant was a 1.2665

here's my chart..a bit messy..

look at the bottom of the triangle, ignore the spike due to news. It's the BO this morning, followed by a pullback to the TL. EU has now reached weekly R1, whether long or short, wait for entry


Attached thumbnail(s)

good. Dow, oil are up...hopefully R1 can do a good support after London

This post has been edited by small-jeff: Nov 25 2008, 02:17 AM

wow...can you teach me how to trade?

any outlook on EU?

on smaller TF, failed flag leading to consolidation. US GDP out as all know, i believe EU might make a dive to 1.2700. Later may go back up following the Fed's plan. Again, oil as indicator - $50.50

This post has been edited by small-jeff: Nov 25 2008, 07:15 PM

hm..just to add...dont forget to look at gov bonds and treasuries

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Added on November 29, 2008, 6:01 pmhowever, based on what i know now, i would probably open a short position later today (may change if i found out something else). IMO, whether OPEC cut its rate or not, it wouldn't affect the demand of oil. Based on latest economic figures, recession is much likely to deepens early 2009 Q1. Pressure of deflation is surfacing. IMO again, equity indexes and commodity prices shows how the market is reacting towards the market, but should not be confused as an indicator. The best indicator is just follow where the money goes, especially at times like this.

just my view...

This post has been edited by small-jeff: Nov 29 2008, 06:02 PM

anyone shorted on USD based pairs (long USD)?

Yen interest rate = 0.3% = good for higher yielding assets
GBP = UK recession, like normal scenario, currency will follow to fall

oil:
even if OPEC cut productions, it'll still represent 40% of global oil producers. At current pace of production, supply > demand due to slow down.

December will be the month to look out for speeches instead of reports

Good pips hunting guys

yo bro...where have you been?

hm..careful on that... Gilt is on the rise, as there's expection of further rate cut, not to mention that there's still relatively strong momentum on USD's bull.

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Added on December 2, 2008, 2:12 pmYields on US Treasuries continue to drop as Fed may actually buy the Treasuries...They better make sure it wont cause a "Treasury" Bubble...

This post has been edited by small-jeff: Dec 2 2008, 02:12 PM

some opinion here...

1) As mentioned previous week, earlier this week oil will retest at $56, which failed upon $55.90, which is also the third attempt. Pretty soon, and quite obviously, it may drop below $40. Counting the waves, and looking the at global economy, the next target will be near $32, where most oil producers will not be making profits. Crude oil price is used to gauge global economy and political health.

2) With unemployment in the US continues to rise, point for DOW to look for is near 7500.

3) 3 months t-bill yield is at 0.01, almost near to zero, while 30 year is just above 3.00. GILT is on the rise, so as German government bonds.

Summary:

if there's no better news (other than monetary) coming out from ECB nor the Fed, 3 month t-bill would reach zero by next two weeks. That being said, EU next week may look at 1.2000, while GU may follow the dive as well. This may prolong until end of the year, where there might be a "Treasury Bubble" burst. Along with this, goes with the Yen.

just my view

why dont open the position now? the market is not moving, and technically, it is a good entry for USD/CAD if one wants to short. imo, waiting for the market to opens would be much troublesome (for and entry) if there's a gap lower.