Wow, oil down 7 usd...can we see CPO below 2000 this year? With more foreign funds exiting and more local funds selling to buy dollar, us equities, CI is going to fall from here on.

If that happens, USD will be 3.5 to MYR. Today's rate already 3.45. Not only that you will see Euro 1.4, and GBP 1.70

But your scenario will likely happen since oil came up fast from 100 to 147. So it's normal to see a retracement back to 100 dollars per barrel.



This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Sep 3 2008, 01:25 AM

You guys didn't know that Datuk Tony hedged his debt and now US rising fast and furious, dont you guys think he's losing alot in hedging against the greenback? His debt sure ballooning la

Credit Suisse tells investors to avoid Malaysia
KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 3 — International financial services group Credit Suisse has lumped Malaysia and Thailand, where a state of emergency has been declared, into the same category of politically unstable countries where investors should avoid buying stocks.

Bloomberg quoted a Credit Suisse brokerage report as saying a power struggle between Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and the government is heightening risks to the Malaysian economy.

“While we are a step closer to political conclusion, we really are none the wiser as to what that outcome will be,” Bloomberg quoted Stephen Hagger, a Kuala Lumpur based analyst at Credit Suisse, as writing in a report today.

Hagger wrote: “Malaysia offers some value versus the region, but it is not really cheap enough to justify the risks.”

Bloomberg also reported that other brokerages were forecasting tough times.

Southeast Asian markets have “not yet approached levels where visible risks have been fully discounted,'' Goldman Sachs Group Inc. was reported to have said in a Sept. 1 report, citing concerns over the political outlook in Malaysia and Thailand.

“We've been underweight in Thailand for the better part of the last two years because of a continuation of the negative domestic political sentiment,” Beat Lenherr, who oversees more than $20 billion (RM46 billion) of assets as Singapore-based chief global strategist at LGT Capital Management, told Bloomberg

“Malaysia faces similar problems and we're heavily underweight there as well.”



950 coming soon babehs!

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Added on September 4, 2008, 8:52 amSome of you might wonder why I am so negative on our CI. Here's my technical analysis of FKLI (a precursor to KLCI)



Chart timeframe: 4 hr

Base on the chart above, you would see a head and shoulder forming, and you can see the green trendline as a neckline (approx 1020)


This is a classic chart pattern that signals a bearish trend; if the neckline of 1020 is broken, we might see a drop of additional 100 points, which brings us to 920

Additional warning signs,

5 EMA cuts below 20 EMA

Lower high, but higher high in stochs - hidden negative divergence.

Again, this is what i observed from the chart.

HAPPY trading!









This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Sep 4 2008, 08:52 AM

No, when the lower peak is formed, the stochs should show a lower peak in stochs, however, in this case, the chart showed a higher peak in stochs rather than a lower peak. Also, this is slow stochs, so it doesnt have that much noise. I don't use MACD much because i am mostly a daytrader and MACD sometimes is too slow for my liking.

Oh, and even the MACD histogram is showing divergence.

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Added on September 4, 2008, 10:19 amJgn invest in Malaysia.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...Bsr4&refer=home

Your money small, profit also small. Invest in US equities!

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Sep 4 2008, 10:19 AM

SMS rumors mentioning a pending general election. Don't know true or not

Before 16th, we should some rapid decline in the stock market first. Coz many funds will get information first that a GE will be called.

Guys, got a very bad news for you. I have checked the daily chart for KLCI. The price movement had shown that there's an overhead resistance of 1087, which is the neckline of the head/shoulder pattern. If the price is unable to breakout from 1087, we will see a fall of almost 100-300 points. Worst case scenario is 600 points for CI.

Technical and fundamental analysis confirm the pending Free fall of CI. I strongly recommend all purchases to be put on hold and wait it out.

DJIA is down 250 points. Good for me, shorted FKLI. Oil dropped too. Plantation stocks will pull CI down again.

Plenty of room to go down for more, but hopefully rallies first so i can sell my stock.

IT's a long term investments. I shorted FKLI yesterday @ 1059, hoping to see it go down 40 points since DJIA down more than 350 and oil down 1.84. Dollar has been rallying also. So HOPEFULLY, i made some good money.

Of course, my stock in Nasdaq is a longer term investment.

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Added on September 5, 2008, 8:51 amUpdate: FKLI Sept 08 1041

Probably going to close my position.

This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Sep 5 2008, 08:51 AM

*Yawn* Did you guys see Shanghai Comp briefly dropped below 2200 level? Aiyo, better dont buy KLCI stocks la...

Then why bother to purchase CI stocks with dividend? Also useless because inflation makes your money small. IF you really want to make money, convert your RINGGIT to USD, and there you go. Wait three months, and you will have a safe return of 20%

Sure, if you transfer your money out @ 3.35 to buy US bonds, you will untung already. Now MYR/USD is 3.45. In 3 months, you get your 20%.

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Added on September 5, 2008, 2:40 pm

where can i get it done then??? to buy those bond.....wat r the procedures? and r they going to guarantee that i will get my 20%???

[/quote]

First, you gotta change your ringgit to us dollars, and then go to Singapore, open an account in USD and purchase corporate bonds/ T-bils or ETFs or pharma stocks in US; such as ELAN, KING, MERCK, PFIZER, TEVA (these are defensive stocks)

In 3 months, you will get your 20%, through the appreciation of the dollar, and also the interest from the bonds or price increase of the ETFs/stocks. (big portion of it is through appreciation of the dollar)

Hey, it all depends on your risk appetite of course.

Oh, nothing is a guarantee, but if you invest smartly you will get your reward.



This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Sep 5 2008, 03:17 PM

LOL!! For tax purposes, better in SG la.....

Yes, or you can even put FD in USD! You still make money.

No you don't have to be physically in SG, your money only has to be there. But once your account is setup, you can purchase anything from T-bills, corporate bonds, ETFs, futures....so many instruments to make money.

You invest in CI? MATI LAH. You win ringgit also no use if inflation keep going up.

For example, you have 3500 ringgit, you change to 1000 usd

You use that 1000 usd, short euro, and keep it till the end of the month. Better play than buying stocks in Malaysia because you make more coz you win USD, not MYR. If you purchase CI stocks, your opportunity cost is bigger because NO VOLUME. TIME IS MONEY. SO let's go make money with our ringgits before they become tissue paper.


For example:

Purchase 3000 shares of AirAsia @ MYR 1.00

10 cents = MYR 300 ringgit profit


Long US dollar, short euro/pound sterling

50,000 (mini lots) Short euro @ 1.4300

One night later , euro 1.4200

100 pips X $5 usd = USD 500

Exchange rate: 3.50 x 500 = MYR 1750





This post has been edited by AdamG1981: Sep 5 2008, 03:29 PM

OI!

Don't forget to do risk analysis.

You can ask sifu Cherroy and sifu Dreamer opinion also.

Honestly, ringgit is better off used as toilet paper.

Any tools to hedge against depreciation of RM?

Well, usually i convert my ringgit to usd and store it as FD in SG or i use it to buy beaten up stocks or forex.