Wah bro, you really can't wait for the cheque to re-invest is it?

hi all, any opinion on YTL Power stock? how is the prospect?

IMHO, YTL PWR is good for long term investment. Hard to predict YTL PWR currently and it depends on different ppl on how they see this counter.
IMO, price is still on the high side for YTL PWR if u compare with other counters in this kind of market situation.
Kindly read thru the previous post and discussions which i find somewhat usefull info.

Stock market is just a matter of confidence...valuation comes second
Analyst does come up with some TP, but can you really trust them? Is their methodology correct and do they really understand the company well enough to put a fair value to share price? Just playing with numbers can change many things, but it's the perception and confidence that matters

I think the management of a listed co plays an important role when it comes to Confidence level.

Who are really in charge ? Are they doing the right things ? At what speed they put Co plans into actions ?

Sad to say, generally the quality of the management is lacking in our public lsited companies.

Look at Bursa, how many times the system fails to perform ? Can we have Confidence in Bursa then ?

Similarly, we have NEAC and EC , but there is very little action taken, often too little and too late.

So regardless it is rm 60 billions or 100 billions.

Just my 2sen opinion.

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Mar 14 2009, 12:16 PM

To share 2 cents,

IMHO , confidence should after before valuation.

We evaluate the company and the structure of the biz then we came out with the fair value for it.
If the numbers seems good, it creates confident. Then we only discounted it to get an entry point level.
If the numbers are out , definately confident is lesser . Regardless current numbers of future forecast numbers.

Analysts job is to give TP and fair value . I do agree we dont trust them that much. But they are the CFA holders.
They hav the legal licence to published their views. Their numbers is base on information receive and guts indicators used.

E.g a property company wana build an high end condo at penang near airport, the current land price is rm30 per square feet. Analyst wana make the stock more sexy , so he use 15 years later estimated forecast land price after development been made . The land per square feet is RM200. All the P/E , EPS and ROE, recalculate . Can check which com is that.

He is neither right or wrong, he is just giving his valuation for future earnings. Some they know it is boostful numbers but , if they dun put that numbers ... who will goreng? Either up or down ? he works for investment bank afterall.
Investment banks is getting biz from all this listed companies , sometimes they need to do a good write up (sik dak jou yan) ...

Our position is to value the valuation given ...
Our valuation numbers seems goods ... confidents follows =) 2 cents

Another 2 cents here!

Stocks can be positive , can go negative also.

Depends on present and future profits.

YTLPOWR is attractive in terms of dividends, not so much in terms of price appreciation.

So far the dividends are coming, but profits are being affected as of late. So no guarantee dividends will come in at

the same amounts as in the past. At present no share buy backs, therefore no share dividends.

Good example of dividend paying stock not paying like before is CARLSBERG. They usually pay about 30 sen

dividend this time of the year, but due to lower profits, declared dividend @ 7.5 sen.

Since announcement, the share price lost about 20%. Presently trading at a 10 year low.

Also beware of putting all your eggs in one basket. Jim Rogers said "I never invest more than 10% in any one

counter, no matter how solid it is".

YTLPOWR has solid business but also a huge debt. Bonds are due soon and refinancing rates are up.

Ya

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Added on March 15, 2009, 8:36 amytl power nature of business are utilities services. Their nature of business basically are contract base at that particular region (wessex, seraya...). If you stay at region A and wessex supply region A, then Wessex is your only choice. You cannot like using wessex service today and southern water service tomolo. So in term of competition it is almost zero. That means you no need to have price war with your competitors especially during economy climate currently like carlsberg and guiness. You don need to spend millions on advertising. Like what june had mention WW just increased their water tariff recently.

As long as they can control their cash flow then should be no problem. I beliv ytl power will go up once the market conditions turn better as they expand their business once every 10 years.

ytl power is the only counter i invested and almost 40% of my investment (the rest in ASW ...)

Will increase my investment in ytl power to 70% once i got my cash from top up my housing loan. Hope i have made the right decision.





This post has been edited by darkknight81: Mar 15 2009, 08:36 AM

So at what price you will start to make some scoop darkknight?
I'm looking at around 1.80 or lower if possible within this coming weeks.
My present avg is at 1.70.

good luck to you man~~
i support u~haha~~


when the bond going to expire, price will also affected o?
y? p&l will become not nice?

I also look for RM1.8 below for stock add up.


This post has been edited by rayloo: Mar 15 2009, 02:36 PM

Below 1.80 i suppose....got to see the situation too...

6 - 7 months ago my entering price was RM 1.83

Buy if you think the price look reasonable for you no need to follow others or analysts TP

If i keep on waiting last time i will miss the chance and don forget the dividend in between. It is 8.3% in 6 months time !!!

Once i think the time is right i will buy another 500 lots in one shot using online trading with lower fee which can save a lot

Basically YTLPOWR needs to pay up close to RM 1 Billion (depending on u.s. dollar exchange rate), which I believe is due Jan 2010.

now the ytl-power is like an old man...so quiet
standing at 1.88-1.90 for a long time d
depend when ppl want to fry the news about it
goes south? goes north??
gods know~

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Added on March 16, 2009, 4:42 pm
when the bonds expire, that's also the time seraya start to contribute to the profit, not bad wat(even not very significant la~)

This post has been edited by ngwei2402: Mar 16 2009, 04:42 PM

Should be at 9 May 2010. USD 250 MILLION with 119% of their principal amount so is roughly RM 1 billion plus.

Is about 15% of their 8 billion cash reserve...

Yes, that's more precise. I was using expiry date of WA.

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Added on March 17, 2009, 1:05 am0203 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Credit Suisse reinstates YTL Power (6742.KU) at Neutral, raises target price to MYR1.85 from MYR1.73; says this following revising up FY09 EPS estimate by 9% but cutting FY10E EPS by 1%. Notes YTL Power finalized acquisition of 100% of Power Seraya on March 6, says Power Seraya will enhance YTL Power's FY10-11 net profits by MYR80-120 million, assuming financing cost of 5.0%. Still, warns recent GBP weakness means "less ringgit profits from its UK-subsidiary, Wessex Waters." Gas prices to electricity sector cut by 25% (Effective March 1), but sees minimal impact on YTL Power earnings as energy costs pass-through to Tenaga. Shares last flat at MYR1.88. (PVA)



Credit suisse were the advisers to Temasek for the three singapore gencos sold. Their estimates of net profits

"Power Seraya will enhance YTL Power's FY10-11 net profits by MYR80-120 million, assuming financing cost of 5.0%".

should be quite accurate. Have to say for an investment of RM 8 Billion ++, the profits are not going to be impressive

at all. PE = 8,000,000,000 / 100,000,000

= 80

Power Seraya is for long term play.

Short to medium term, just hope they can obtain new business somewhere.





This post has been edited by calmwater: Mar 17 2009, 01:44 AM

I still have some hope the figure for 2010 is just a minimum figure.

Check this out.


http://www.ytlcommunity.com/commnews/files...20in%20Asia.pdf

1. Yup agree with you . Besides, this is the last chance for ytl power to do power utility business in singapore. Two gas fire plant are in progress.

2. I beliv Francis Yeoh will not simply buy a business with PER of 80

3. Hedging against depreciation of RM. Having businesses in Malaysia, Singapore, UK, Australia, Indonesia WILL minimise risk ... Thats is the reason i choose this counter...

Lastly, is that possible for ytl power selling power generated in Malaysia to Seraya?

This post has been edited by darkknight81: Mar 19 2009, 08:40 PM

Not possible as there is no link I think. I think there would be some government regulations against it as well to protect their local power producers.