1) HUAAN IS A GOOD BUY.
2) Recent prices seem to suggest Hua-An has rock-bottomed; Hua-An's current share price valuation is highly undemanding; Hua-An has NTA of RM0.610;
3) Hua-An is back in the black with improved company outlook due to recovery of the steel industry; for example, the U.S. steel industry is currently in an extended bull run;
4) At the moment, the demand for coking coal is greater than its supply due to coal shortage (so severe parts of China recently interrupted electricity supply in the cold winter)
5) Rise in coal prices due to shortage correlates to better coke prices and improved margins, since Hua-An can pass the increment to its customers;
6) Hua-An is now purchasing and "washing" its own raw coal at greatly reduced cost;
7) Previous clamping down by the Chinese government on inefficient metallurgical coke producers will be to Hua-An's advantage (it currently has about 10% of Shandong's market share);
Cool Hua-An has a reasonable management team and skilled workers (coal and coking coal are core Chinese industries);
9) Hua-An's major shareholder is Tunku Naquiyuddin (Antah) via Rock Point Alliance Pte Ltd., and not a Chinese who might dump Hua-An shares.
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1) The shortage of coal may extend and cause severity (the current problem is not expected to extend beyond the cold winter; furthermore, Hua-An's factory is strategically located near coal mines);
2) Corporate mismanagement and fraud (distrust of Chinese counters);
3) Bank of China's monetary policies of tightening money supply and raising interest rates may pressurize regional stock markets;
4) Global and local stock markets collapse in 2011 (unlikely, we are only going into the 3rd year of the up-cycle since the 2007 sub-prime mortgage crisis, so consolidation at most).
Analysis
Since there is no direct play on coal on the local scene at the time of writing, Hua-An is the closest alternative in terms of coking coal. China, in the past a huge net exporter of coking coal, has streamlined coking coal export...previously due to environmental issues, now due to extreme global shortage. Will not be surprised if a Chinese steel conglomerate bids for Hua-an, seemingly the current trend in Asia, namely ICVL (India) and Rio Tinto (Australia).
Feb 9 2011, 07:06 PM
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