I dun disagree on ur premise bust cycle, but is there any other bust in mind?
anyway, mentioning about cycles, oil crisis 1975, asia crisis 1997/ dot com 2000, financial crisis 2008 & etc
high interest rate by usa fed reserve paul volcker 1983 (the after effect kena us 1984/5), coz he want to kill inflation, he killed the world
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Volckerthanx to him, jimmy carter not reelected & tat is y obama oso dun dare to keep him nearby, even though volcker offer willingly to help
if see from share market pov, indexes will kena 1st, then followed by property & etc, so its better step out from tempurung
also, notice those crisis is 'about' a decade apart, coz tat is the average time needed for the newbies start coming out to join the work force
with their new unspent money & untested idea, they r perfect victims to be sucked into a bubble, coz they got no actual experience of the last one
since the last crisis was 2008, when do u think the next crisis will be? yr 2009/2010? ie. when ts started the question?
but majority in tis thread is on the other side, DO pray harder tat property prices will drop
QUOTE(maxforce @ Jan 9 2011, 12:37 AM)
Tulip has its value - ie decoration LOLz
Anyway, the tulip story had other side of it, ie, demand from the royal family, rare breed etc. They have their hype.
Property wise indeed has an intrinsic value - ie shelter.
However, when its trumped up hype, etc. then there is a danger.
Property risk is that it is long term ie liquidity risk. One cannot just dispose it as easy as stocks. Paperwork, finding the right buyer, etc. Perhaps more like those illiquid counters some which do not even have any shares traded for days/weeks. One cannot say such counter = 0 value. The value is there. Just need to hold on, put queue, wait for the bait to be eaten.
The tulip is a good lesson for mania herd mentality. Thats about it. Replace tulip with dot com. You get the dot com boom and bust. And while tulip never regained its past glory, some dot com company did survive. New ones like Google & Facebook did emerge.
So what about property? My opinion, some are really hyped up.
Location x3? Yeah indeed. Prime area vs non prime vs "future" prime. This may be the distinguishing factor. When the bust cycle comes, future prime may be really a distant future. One may be stuck with it with no gains in the future (inflation adjusted and taking into consideration of interest payments).
Prime areas wont be affected? Or only slightly affected? Doubt so. A bust cycle will bust everything. Only the degree. Perhaps prime area would not be affected as much as other non prime but even this is uncertain. Prime today, may not be prime tomorrow.
2 yrs since this thread started, any drop ar, someone commented. Timing is another uncertain point. That said, once again, the fear is the illiquid part of it. If a bust cycle does come, all the gains which are not locked are merely paper gains. That said, no one knows when the bust cycle would indeed come.
Current property market if using stock terminology - overbought.
Can it be even more overbought? Can, why not? Often happen in stocks, dont see why not in properties. But speculating in stocks in a sense is easier due to the liquidity. That said, if several session of limit downs, tu pening jugak. LOLz!