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Financial Is property going to drop?, General property price discussion

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eugene jk
post Feb 12 2009, 09:48 PM

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I am waiting too... sad.gif ...

Expert says wait till 2nd half of 2009 or early 2010..

Now have to collect "bullets" 1st biggrin.gif
eugene jk
post Mar 4 2009, 05:48 PM

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Agree with Phoeni..

Prime location (especially landed prop) is holding very well, especially BU.. Last year till date, asking price still remain at least half mil.

The 1st to be affected are usually investment property (usually high rise) rather than own stay property.. KLCC and Mont Kiara are badly affected right now as purchasers are mostly investors..
eugene jk
post Jan 14 2010, 11:52 PM

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QUOTE(epalbee3 @ Jan 14 2010, 09:39 PM)
when do you think the property price will go down 50%?

If in these few years, I want to save to buy during the dip.. wink.gif

Should be one or two years right?
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No way for prime location.. the only way is up..

eugene jk
post Jan 17 2010, 07:20 PM

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As taikor teach me a property investment mantra..

"Buy and Wait.. Don't Wait and Buy" .. hehe
eugene jk
post Jul 6 2010, 10:28 AM

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Why say so?
eugene jk
post Jul 6 2010, 10:56 AM

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QUOTE(philipsenderos @ Jul 6 2010, 10:42 AM)
Don't you think it's almost impossible to buy a property under Rm250k, limited on under RM400k? How much is a person under the age of 30 earning? RM5 to RM10k? It's ridiculous on the salary vs prop price.

So many high value projects, especially on the recent launches, were fully snapped up. I wonder they can pay it. I know the power of leveraging kicks in, but it doesn't make sense seeing current development. Alot of MNCs coming in M'sia to spike the RE prices? No, i dun think so...

And those easy entry scheme, like the most recent some project in ara damansara, selling houses basically just bangin on lrt station, providing 10% discount but the price jack up like so high, half a million to buy a condo? developer didnt even get the license to advertise yet but the sales are crazy. just pay RM3k...sounds good but scary....especially youngster just buy it without much due diligence...

It reli worries me!
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Simple.. These properties definately not for average income earners... these buyers who are also not from the average income group... Having RM5k and above are beyond the average income earners in malaysia nod.gif

There are plenty of bargain buys like subsale properties of properties away from urban area.. Those fully snapped up, some are taken by tycoons, 1 shot makan few biji unit...

Mostly are local consumption in recent launches... try to go around those new lauches and you will see plenty locals smile.gif

High end properties which are only make up of small segment in the entire malaysia property.. Even with the recent high end property price drop in KLCC and MK, you notice average properties like PJ condos, apartment and landed property are still holding, in fact, landed property price has gone up even higher..Why??


eugene jk
post Jul 6 2010, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(philipsenderos @ Jul 6 2010, 10:42 AM)
Don't you think it's almost impossible to buy a property under Rm250k
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It is not impossible, tonnes of property under Rm250k... its just a matter of doing good research, and willing to stay further away from hot urban areas.. or stay in urban area with smaller units...


QUOTE(Tohsan @ Jul 6 2010, 11:32 AM)
under RM250K still a lot oni they are those "down town" area. smile.gif
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Kajang Pearl Avenue ... cheap cheap RM187 psqft brows.gif ... heard its in BBB mode...

This post has been edited by eugene jk: Jul 6 2010, 11:40 AM
eugene jk
post Jul 6 2010, 11:54 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jul 6 2010, 11:47 AM)
Frankly speaking if go to overseas to compared, the situation of property speculation is far worst than what happening here.

When you have extreme low interest environment like currently, some properties bubble can be easily formed.
Because there are too much money chasing too few supply.
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Very good point, notice recent launches are so few compare to few years back... More gradutes are flocking into urban areas by the year... More youngsters are getting into the job market... more young couple are getting married and need a house... more family are expanding and need to upgrade their home to bigger area (ie. condos to landed)

This post has been edited by eugene jk: Jul 6 2010, 11:57 AM
eugene jk
post Jul 6 2010, 02:42 PM

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I think we can refer this topic to this discussion.. http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/741185/+680

Seems there more pros are explaining there pretty well smile.gif
eugene jk
post Jul 7 2010, 10:32 AM

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QUOTE(philipsenderos @ Jul 7 2010, 04:59 AM)
Sigh...somehow i feel that most of u all trying to console urself...maybe u guys are the ones who bought alot out there, and definitely wiser thing to do to prevent the fear or hide it instead...i'm quite certain most of the people who bought alot doens't have the ability to repay the loan, if and only if, all tenants are taken away...it's happening around me, people that i know, they are too clouded by "rich dad" book...anyway, it's jz disheartening to see poorer ppl needs to move out from urban area....Malaysia equal balance and affordability is slowly fading away...

I nv mentioned on comparing to oversea, coz i know u can't do that. Msia is still immensely far behind to those big cities....population wise is totaly not compatible...economic wise is extremely tiny what more to say on currency and spending power? speculation is undoubtedly small in msia if you are trying to analyse across regions but u jz can't comment on that as the macro environment is totaly different. I doubt people reli have the holding power, seriously. smile.gif
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I am not sure others are trying to console themselves .. well.. You can wait the price to drop.. nod.gif default loan is still low, auction is still low.. thats the picture i see so far

This post has been edited by eugene jk: Jul 7 2010, 10:33 AM
eugene jk
post Aug 7 2010, 07:56 AM

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QUOTE(Onemorething @ Aug 6 2010, 11:33 AM)
Sure, this is a standard calculation which takes your gross salary per month x 12 months to get an annual salary.  You then multiply by what is deemed affordable by a mulitplier.  Affordability has changed over the years based on salaries, cost of living etc but quite simply the current level is about 3.5x.

So, if you are an average Malaysian making RM5000/m x 12 = RM60,000 annually, affordable housing should cost you RM210,000 to purchase.  The challenge right now is that prices are topping RM500,000.  Therefore 8x+ income is what you have to pay to own your own home.

On my rental if I went to purchase today would cost 7.5x income but I'm renting it at 50% the repayment price.  Only 27% of NET income (after taxes) goes to rent while 57% of my NET income would be used each month to service ownership.  I have not accounted for property taxes, maintainence and additional costs associated with ownership as well.  With this included it is over 60% to own.

I believe we have hit our Peak Property Levels based on massive run up in consumption and credit expansion along with a Boomer demographical shift that will not be stopped.  Japan is a good example of an aging population who was ahead of the western world by about 10 years before deflation kicked in for two lost decades.  The height of that RE market corrected and has not recovered for 2 decades.  The USA should have tanked 10 years ago after the high tech bubble but more money was printed and the credit crisis followed.  Things have only gotten worse.

I use the term GREAT GLOBAL RESET as we have the means to manipulate the global marketplace in ways never thought of in the 1930's or during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.  It will be at the very least a long drawn out downturn.  However, if China cant control their outcome this time, it will come quickly and swiftly for us in Asia!

If I was a doomsday believer I would be living on a farm in rural Malaysia, preparing for the worst and looking to be self sustainable with REAL GOLD bars hidden on the property but I do believe we will figure things out but in a very painful way for most who spend little time thinking about what is really going on.
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Great sharing, thanks for the info.. nod.gif

still plenty to learn from you.. just a question.. we had read much about the bubble and usually associate with high end overprice property, say when D day really comes, in your opinion, what are the ripple effects on mass market property say those below RM500k that are still affordable by the larger market segment? notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by eugene jk: Aug 7 2010, 07:56 AM
eugene jk
post Aug 7 2010, 04:57 PM

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with bank's mortgage guideline of 33% of total salary, 30 year tenure and BLR-1.9%, I guess, its common to have 5x income to 6x income nowadays
eugene jk
post Aug 9 2010, 03:30 PM

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QUOTE(surf-it @ Aug 9 2010, 02:13 PM)
interesting theory about the Global Reset. But I always thought that, houses are still considerably affordable in KV area.

See, if you earn 2k/month, then you stay apartment first lar...who told you to stay landed?

And if you earn 5k, then stay condominium la or buy leasehold...sub-sale lar...nobody want u to stay new development also...

and if you earn 10k, finally 500k sounds reasonable isn't it?

The point is, there's always choice out there in KV. We have land, but in prime area the land is very very scarce, that is where the "premium" price come from...

Those new development where developer set sky-high price...that one I really think got speculated a bit...

just my worthless 2 cents...
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spot on... affordabilty is never an issue... but it is ppl's perception and always want the best prop with low price....
eugene jk
post Aug 11 2010, 10:27 AM

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QUOTE(blasto @ Aug 11 2010, 09:43 AM)
I read somewhere inthis thread before .... anyone know the full qoute below ...

those who expect property drop = no money
those expect property increase = got money
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those expect property increase = vested+got money laugh.gif
eugene jk
post Aug 12 2010, 01:19 PM

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QUOTE(blasto @ Aug 12 2010, 12:25 PM)
People who wish prop price to drop = People who don't own a property
People who wish prop price to rise = People who have a property
Thanks you nail it !  rclxms.gif
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and what about ppl who have already owned 1 and want more? hmm.gif
eugene jk
post Aug 13 2010, 05:46 PM

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still got cheap terrace in prime area.... get single storey, or 18x65 double storey...
eugene jk
post Aug 14 2010, 05:02 PM

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just came in http://www.starproperty.my/PropertyScene/T...ghtBox/6476/0/0

Large percentage of property loans may be a problem if recession hits

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THE surge in property prices has created a fresh avenue for investors wanting to make big bucks, but it is also creating a huge future problem that if left unchecked, can spell trouble for households, banks and the overall economy.

The robust property market has seen the percentage of property loans to total loans in the banking system rising well beyond the levels seen during the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis.

The growth in house purchases is said to be among the largest contributors to the tremendous build-up in household debt over the past 10 years.

Those concerns, for now, are being overlooked as the sector has not yet showed signs of strain.

eugene jk
post Aug 23 2010, 11:23 PM

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QUOTE(Caitlin @ Aug 23 2010, 09:44 PM)
Same as Red Coffee... i'm a very conservative person. When I started working, I cannot afford to buy any properties myself. When I have enough saving, the price went so high up that I don't think it worth it. I'm always waiting for the price to drop, especially after US ecomony crisis 1-2 years ago, but it didn't drop. At the end, working 5 years in Penang I got nothing.

Now I've just moved to KL, and started looking around to buy a house or apartment for myself.... still I think the price is just too crazy!! Previously I thought property price in Penang was too high, but now in KL, it's even worst.....

Anyway, I'm working near Damansara... any good recommendation? I'm not sure if I still continue waiting for the burst (might end up with nothing again), or just go ahead to buy.... But with my budget, don't think i can get good apartment around that area... I'm still praying for the bubble burst to come!!!!
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property bursting is no fun.... its a chain reaction that will affect the economy and when things go bad, u might get out of job... u really praying for that to happen??

hopefully the government able to come out with some measurement and guideline to soften and slow down the property sector, and let time slowly catching up with the property value...
eugene jk
post Sep 1 2010, 10:51 AM

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The world has change... everyone also graduates ... its just "Survival of the fittest"
eugene jk
post Sep 1 2010, 08:16 PM

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QUOTE(Bobby C @ Sep 1 2010, 06:41 PM)
Don't complain too much, they will tell you to compare with Zimbawee how much we have achieved.

You should be thankful of them, grateful to them and vote for them the rest of your life during this Merdeka celebration!  1Malaysia, 1crony not 2 laugh.gif
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ya.. later kena ask to go back dailok doh.gif

This post has been edited by eugene jk: Sep 1 2010, 08:17 PM

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