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Financial Is property going to drop?, General property price discussion

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Pai
post Mar 10 2009, 08:53 AM

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QUOTE(Phoeni_142 @ Mar 10 2009, 08:42 AM)
For point number 2 - it is a pandora's box, my friend.  Let me explain.

1.  Financial solvency can't be confused with execution and reputation.  There's an old saying, "I'd rather get a B+ or C- in Strategy, but an A++ in Execution".  Long story short, how sure are u that the "not so reputable developer can execute? What would u do when the finishing is poor? Or defects galore exists and they fix it at a snail's pace?  Unless of course, u mention that this falls within your acceptable risk appetite.

2.  Assuming the condo gets completed on time with no problems (I'll pray for u) - this lies my biggest phobia - the management company of the condo / apartment.  I seriously hope that anyone that buys UC will do some due diligence here.  The Mgmt company of the condo will make or break the condo.  Care to share how due diligence is done here?
*
Very simple my fren, just check their existing/completed projects. smile.gif

Plus when I say not so reputable, I dont mean newbies. Im referring to developers with less than 3 completed projects to date, not to those who r new to property development. wink.gif
Pai
post Mar 10 2009, 10:10 AM

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QUOTE(Phoeni_142 @ Mar 10 2009, 09:05 AM)
By the way, you still have not answered my question on the mgmt company  wink.gif

*
Same answer boss, just go back to their previous projects. wink.gif

And yeah, a big NO for developers with maiden projects, irrespective of how cheap the development is priced. This is why I didnt went for Sierra Residence. (Sold for 100k 2 years ago and now commanding 200k for similar unit)



Pai
post Mar 19 2009, 01:08 PM

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QUOTE(mardybum @ Mar 19 2009, 11:07 AM)
Hi.

Well everyone knows the country is now facing a great recession
we are? hmm.gif
Pai
post Mar 22 2009, 09:11 AM

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ahh....he edited his post already tongue.gif I've seen sign of slowdowns..... but we have yet to reach 97/98 recession levels smile.gif

anyway wodenus, in your opinion, when do u think we will bottom out?
Pai
post Mar 22 2009, 07:39 PM

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QUOTE(Phoeni_142 @ Mar 22 2009, 10:52 AM)
D@mn.....look's like I missed the action.

What was his original post, and what's the source of controversy? tongue.gif
*
refer post 307 fren tongue.gif


Added on March 22, 2009, 7:40 pm
QUOTE(wodenus @ Mar 22 2009, 03:02 PM)
If I knew that I would be God lol smile.gif
*
anticipating isnt really God-like smile.gif

This post has been edited by Pai: Mar 22 2009, 07:40 PM
Pai
post Mar 22 2009, 11:59 PM

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QUOTE(meejawa @ Mar 22 2009, 09:07 PM)
The let me ask you, who are the ones who get retrenched? Are they holding lot of properties in good locations?
*
so far only factory workers...........even our Finacial firms have yet to do a massive layoff.........


Added on March 23, 2009, 12:02 am
QUOTE(meejawa @ Mar 22 2009, 09:07 PM)
So I'm curious, what will trigger a meltdown in prop prices?
*
actually, even during 97/98 crisis, was there a property prices meltdown? And how do we define "property meltdown"? Above 20% drop?


This post has been edited by Pai: Mar 23 2009, 12:02 AM
Pai
post Mar 24 2009, 12:55 AM

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QUOTE(arsenal @ Mar 24 2009, 12:10 AM)
hahahaha....two house bought cash....another one got loan..The only area can cover loan is in Sandakan.....smile.gif
*
mile 4 or mile 5? hmm.gif


Added on March 24, 2009, 1:05 am
QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Mar 23 2009, 10:47 AM)
Now, EVERYTHING is sustained by government's expenditure and bail out.  There will be a POINT when it is NO LONGER sustainable.  At that point, GLC and Government will have VSS.  Then, the property market will melt down in Klang Valley.

How long do you think this CAN continue??

Dreamer
*
Speaking of bailout, US is defo leading the way via trillion dollar bailout. Its not sustainable yet they keep on bailing out failing FIs and institutions. And guess what, now US property market apparently seeing signs of recovery now.....

Sounds cliche no? smile.gif

This post has been edited by Pai: Mar 24 2009, 01:05 AM
Pai
post Mar 24 2009, 09:19 AM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Mar 24 2009, 02:59 AM)
USD is the world reserve currency.  US can print unlimited USD.  US is the world superpower.  You have to take USD.

*
This I know, but you honestly think that this con job can last forever? wink.gif

Its these thoughts that will lead to the USD downfall (no offence boss). Keep on thinking/hoping like that and you'll be caught holding the baby when the music finally stops tongue.gif


Added on March 24, 2009, 9:19 am
QUOTE(arsenal @ Mar 24 2009, 01:22 AM)
mile 5 taman pertama....you from there also???...tongue.gif
*
Nope, have always been a KL boy tongue.gif

This post has been edited by Pai: Mar 24 2009, 09:19 AM
Pai
post Mar 24 2009, 01:31 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Mar 24 2009, 10:03 AM)
USD downfall will not affect me anyhow.  So, why does it matters to me??
*
I beg to differ as USD downfall will impact anyone who's earning in USD, have reserves in USD and investing in USD denominated invesments wink.gif


Added on March 24, 2009, 1:38 pm
QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 24 2009, 10:07 AM)
As long as the world system, military and financial system remain as what current situation, this will last until we passed away.  tongue.gif
*
thats the issue here.............will things stay the same over the next 10 years? I don think so tongue.gif

This post has been edited by Pai: Mar 24 2009, 01:38 PM
Pai
post Mar 24 2009, 06:16 PM

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QUOTE(meejawa @ Mar 24 2009, 02:36 PM)
Now what determine the property price? Supply and demand, just as i any other investment.
*
This is probably the single most important and often overlooked criteria wink.gif
Pai
post Mar 24 2009, 07:36 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Mar 24 2009, 06:55 PM)

Pai,

You are hitting a mental block here.  You are STILL thinking in ALL eggs in a same basket mentality.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=VFWIX

I owned this mutual fund.  It invested on 2000 largest companies outside of USA.  It is denominated in USD.  So, what happened if USD went down??  Those companies are outside of USA.  Their earning is NOT in USD.  When I collected the dividend, the earning are exchanged into USD.  When USD went down, the earning went up. 

I have earnining in USD, non-USD, reserve in USD and non-USD.

Many of my investment are USD denominated but like VFWIX because they are in US A/C but their earning is NOT in USD.

A person has to diversified across the whole world to preserve their wealth.  A person should not be dependent on any SINGLE country.

Dreamer
chief, your diversification sample above have lost over 45% of its value since inception in just 2 years sweat.gif I thought this fund is mainly for capital preservation? rolleyes.gif

Anyway, thanks for providing us with a fantastic example on how diversifying rarely works in either growth or capital preservation mode wink.gif
Pai
post Mar 25 2009, 07:13 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Mar 25 2009, 03:32 AM)
Pai,

You CHOOSE not to listen carefully.

*
Dreamer,

I dont like to listen as most of the time ppl often likes to pretend smart but actually knows very little so I'd rather look at numbers. Numbers dont lie and thats the real deal.

wink.gif
Pai
post Mar 27 2009, 10:00 PM

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QUOTE(kelvin667 @ Mar 27 2009, 09:38 AM)
Please note that there will be opportunity cost for tying down on property instead of good bargaining on share, unit trust and bond which offer a better return in short time due to the high risk factor.
*
I respectfully disagree with ya on the statement above, mainly due to :

1. The returns on share, UT or bonds arent guaranteed, in fact you could end up losing money and forced to cut loss or hold for longer term hoping for recovery.

2. Contrary to conventional wisdom, you dont really have to fork out plenty of $$$$ if you can find the right property deal. Just look at deal thrown by many developer's today, it doesnt cost one much capital to own a property today.

3. If you bought a severely undervalued property with medium to long term holding horizon(min 2 years), you would have easily made 100%-200% returns on capital. If you have bought Maytower studio's 6 month ago at 190k, you would have made 100% now.

4. Returns on properties are more than decent due to leverage. UT, stocks and bonds have no such privilege. tongue.gif

wink.gif

Pai
post Jun 4 2009, 04:41 PM

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My take --> stock market recovers, sentiments improved, rentals either stagnant or increase in most areas, minor job retrenchment, good access to financing, all time low interest rates all leads to improved property prices.


Pai
post Aug 9 2009, 10:37 AM

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those with cash, holding their purchase and has been predicting doom for Malaysia properties must be kicking their heels now knowing price for good medium cost high rise and landed now has gone up by at least 20%.


Never try to time the market.............. wink.gif

This post has been edited by Pai: Aug 9 2009, 10:39 AM
Pai
post Sep 6 2009, 11:34 PM

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QUOTE(winner @ Sep 6 2009, 08:19 AM)
There is an interesting situation during this round of recession. Landed properties steal the shine from apartments. If you monitor closely pricing trend of landed properties in the Klang Valley, the price is on upwards trend  and in fact it is escalating even faster than the speed in 2007. For instance, asking prices of landed homes in some saught-after areas in PJ, Kepong and Puchong have soared approximately 10% in just these 2-3 months. As for normal apartments, prices are rather stagnant.

Meanwhile, prices of high-end condominiums in KLCC and Mont'Kiara are now stabilised after experiencing a sharp drop of 20%-30% early this year. Demand for this kind of properties is still weak but the are no fire-sales.
*
Think u might wanna check your facts again on apartments being stagnant. MK has clearly rebounded it seems, while KLCC still yet to see recovery. Overall in general, apartments asking price has shown significant increase since the last 3 months.

But u r spot on on the landed properties assesment.
Pai
post Sep 7 2009, 12:21 PM

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QUOTE(winner @ Sep 7 2009, 11:38 AM)
It seems you are too bullish on MK. My sister's unit in one of the recently completed condominiums in MK still remain untenanted and unsold since Jan'09.

Based on an insiders info from my friend working in loan department of a local bank, most of the home loans (for secondary market) nowadays are from landed properties actually.

While new apartment launches tend to be priced higher and higher, secondary market for this segment is not hot enough and the price is rather subdued, at this point in time. You may see asking price of some units is high, but you should see the actual demand and transaction. Secondary market of apartment is still trying to play catchup with new launches.
*
So basically you r saying that MK situation is bad bcoz your sis could not sold/rent her unit? hmm.gif
Pai
post Sep 8 2009, 09:38 PM

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QUOTE(winner @ Sep 7 2009, 06:08 PM)
It's slightly better than early this year. In Feb'09, the asking price dropped >20% from 1 year earlier. And now, the asking price increase marginally only and she is willing to dispose it off by a 20% margin compared to the developer's launching price 3 years ago. But there is still no takers and very few enquiries even though the unit has been put in the market for months.
*
think a better feedback compared to your sister's case is to get feedback from MK based agents. They'll sing you a diff tune. smile.gif

Pai
post Sep 9 2009, 02:05 PM

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Winner, point taken but I dont see any reason for any agent to jack up the price by 10% recently if the demand is not there. Anyway, im not speaking purely from agent feedbacks alone, I do have few frens who owns MK props telling me that demand is back for their props compared to 6 months ago.

And care to explain how you'll get the "actual sales" in MK number that u mentioned earlier?
Pai
post Sep 9 2009, 03:56 PM

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QUOTE(winner @ Sep 9 2009, 02:26 PM)
As mentioned in one of my earlier posts, I do agree that prices in MK has stabilised and slightly increased compared to early this year. But it is still not good enough to cover back the 20% drop experienced in Jan/Feb'09. Besides, the percentage of increase is marginal as compared to landed properties.

Actual sales information could be derived from those big players (developers I mean, NOT agents). As such, you could get a more accurate scenario. smile.gif
*
Winner, r u deriving these facts based on developer's prices? hmm.gif

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