Financial Is property going to drop?, General property price discussion
Financial Is property going to drop?, General property price discussion
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Mar 23 2009, 11:57 PM
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Senior Member
2,354 posts Joined: Feb 2005 From: Subang Jaya |
Bought 400k cash house yesterday....
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Mar 24 2009, 12:08 AM
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Senior Member
753 posts Joined: Dec 2008 |
QUOTE(arsenal @ Mar 23 2009, 11:57 PM) well done!1. I hope u didn't pay cash for it - that would have been a tragedy! 2. I hope u are not bleeding too much - at a 90% loan - you're bleeding cash every month - as your rent won't cover the installment. If you're telling me that your rent covers the installment - i'd be very interested to know which area - as I would have bought a few prop's there myself. |
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Mar 24 2009, 12:10 AM
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Senior Member
2,354 posts Joined: Feb 2005 From: Subang Jaya |
QUOTE(Phoeni_142 @ Mar 24 2009, 12:08 AM) well done! hahahaha....two house bought cash....another one got loan..The only area can cover loan is in Sandakan.....1. I hope u didn't pay cash for it - that would have been a tragedy! 2. I hope u are not bleeding too much - at a 90% loan - you're bleeding cash every month - as your rent won't cover the installment. If you're telling me that your rent covers the installment - i'd be very interested to know which area - as I would have bought a few prop's there myself. |
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Mar 24 2009, 12:17 AM
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Senior Member
753 posts Joined: Dec 2008 |
QUOTE(arsenal @ Mar 24 2009, 12:10 AM) hahahaha....two house bought cash....another one got loan..The only area can cover loan is in Sandakan..... hahaha - nice comeback.An East Malaysian? Well that's interesting stuff - One day must go over there and check out the scene. what's the avg price of a DSLH and SSLH in Sandakan? I presume u did not pay cash for 400K at the age of 24. which means - that your installment is approx 1,700 per month if u take a loan of 360K. You mean the rents in Sandakan are so high? That's even higher rent than my place in TTDI! Something doesn't sound right - or am I understanding your post wrongly? This post has been edited by Phoeni_142: Mar 24 2009, 12:21 AM |
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Mar 24 2009, 12:50 AM
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Senior Member
2,354 posts Joined: Feb 2005 From: Subang Jaya |
QUOTE(Phoeni_142 @ Mar 24 2009, 12:17 AM) hahaha - nice comeback. Semi D house there around 170k plus in 2001...now around 250k...the rent around 1.3k....should check it out...nice place with philipines clubbing scene....An East Malaysian? Well that's interesting stuff - One day must go over there and check out the scene. what's the avg price of a DSLH and SSLH in Sandakan? I presume u did not pay cash for 400K at the age of 24. which means - that your installment is approx 1,700 per month if u take a loan of 360K. You mean the rents in Sandakan are so high? That's even higher rent than my place in TTDI! Something doesn't sound right - or am I understanding your post wrongly? |
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Mar 24 2009, 12:55 AM
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Senior Member
3,318 posts Joined: Dec 2004 From: 1Malaysia |
QUOTE(arsenal @ Mar 24 2009, 12:10 AM) hahahaha....two house bought cash....another one got loan..The only area can cover loan is in Sandakan..... mile 4 or mile 5? Added on March 24, 2009, 1:05 am QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Mar 23 2009, 10:47 AM) Now, EVERYTHING is sustained by government's expenditure and bail out. There will be a POINT when it is NO LONGER sustainable. At that point, GLC and Government will have VSS. Then, the property market will melt down in Klang Valley. Speaking of bailout, US is defo leading the way via trillion dollar bailout. Its not sustainable yet they keep on bailing out failing FIs and institutions. And guess what, now US property market apparently seeing signs of recovery now.....How long do you think this CAN continue?? Dreamer Sounds cliche no? This post has been edited by Pai: Mar 24 2009, 01:05 AM |
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Mar 24 2009, 01:22 AM
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Senior Member
2,354 posts Joined: Feb 2005 From: Subang Jaya |
QUOTE(Pai @ Mar 24 2009, 12:55 AM) mile 4 or mile 5? mile 5 taman pertama....you from there also???...Added on March 24, 2009, 1:05 am Speaking of bailout, US is defo leading the way via trillion dollar bailout. Its not sustainable yet they keep on bailing out failing FIs and institutions. And guess what, now US property market apparently seeing signs of recovery now..... Sounds cliche no? Added on March 24, 2009, 1:24 am QUOTE(Pai @ Mar 24 2009, 12:55 AM) mile 4 or mile 5? mile 5 taman pertama....you from there also???...Added on March 24, 2009, 1:05 am Speaking of bailout, US is defo leading the way via trillion dollar bailout. Its not sustainable yet they keep on bailing out failing FIs and institutions. And guess what, now US property market apparently seeing signs of recovery now..... Sounds cliche no? This post has been edited by arsenal: Mar 24 2009, 01:24 AM |
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Mar 24 2009, 02:59 AM
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003 |
QUOTE(Phoeni_142 @ Mar 23 2009, 11:40 PM) That's an interesting theory u just pointed out. May I disagree on a few points? Phoeni_142,1. I won't argue with you whether the govt will VSS the govt servants or not. I can tell you many reasons why this won't happen - but won't bother right now - let's just put it this way - I don't think the govt will retrench 1.4 million govt servants in this country....by the way, I'm not pro-govt......just stating the obvious. Don't nit pick pls. There are many ways the govt could toy around with to prevent the vss from happening - from tweaking monetary policy, to manipulating money supply......of course, there will be repercussions....However, this is not the issue here. I'm saying that the vss won't happen. 2. You don't understand the property market in KV very well, do you? I can tell you now - if vss starts among the govt sector - prime prop's in the KV won't be affected at all. I betcha you wanna know why.....I'll keep quiet for now as I want u to counter me with your points first cheers bud. 1) The GOVERNMENT need money to sustain. The income is based on TAX and OIL MONEY. The expenditure is GOING UP tremendously. The income is going down. Yes, the government can play with our savings for a while. But, how LONG can government sustain this?? It is NOT indefinite. And, with oiur median age of 24, the YOUNG and WORKING AGE people are growing every year. How long can the family sustain unemployed teenagers? 2) The domestic economy / consumption is going down due to PRIVATE sector not spending and hiring. The GOVERNMENT sector is the one that is sustaining the local economy now. Export is down. So, are you going to tell me that if the government VSS and the domestic economy going to hell, it WILL NOT affect the Klang Valley property market?? We are BOTH right depending on HOW LONG that this is going to last. If it is less than one year, it may not matter. But, how about 2 to 3 years?? How about 5 years?? http://www2.treasury.gov.my/pdf/budget/bud...2005/chart5.gif 2005 Budget -> 117 Billions. http://www2.treasury.gov.my/pdf/budget/bud...2008/chart1.pdf 2008 Budget -> 177 Billions How long do you think this is going to last?? QUOTE(Pai @ Mar 24 2009, 12:55 AM) Added on March 24, 2009, 1:05 am Speaking of bailout, US is defo leading the way via trillion dollar bailout. Its not sustainable yet they keep on bailing out failing FIs and institutions. And guess what, now US property market apparently seeing signs of recovery now..... Sounds cliche no? <<Speaking of bailout, US is defo leading the way via trillion dollar bailout. Its not sustainable yet they keep on bailing out failing FIs and institutions.>> I expect MORE out of you. USD is the world reserve currency. US can print unlimited USD. US is the world superpower. You have to take USD. Malaysia has NONE of the above. <<now US property market apparently seeing signs of recovery now....>> If you believe this...... We still have long way to go to reach the bottom.. Dreamer This post has been edited by dreamer101: Mar 24 2009, 03:07 AM |
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Mar 24 2009, 09:19 AM
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Senior Member
3,318 posts Joined: Dec 2004 From: 1Malaysia |
QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Mar 24 2009, 02:59 AM) USD is the world reserve currency. US can print unlimited USD. US is the world superpower. You have to take USD. This I know, but you honestly think that this con job can last forever? Its these thoughts that will lead to the USD downfall (no offence boss). Keep on thinking/hoping like that and you'll be caught holding the baby when the music finally stops Added on March 24, 2009, 9:19 am QUOTE(arsenal @ Mar 24 2009, 01:22 AM) Nope, have always been a KL boy This post has been edited by Pai: Mar 24 2009, 09:19 AM |
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Mar 24 2009, 10:03 AM
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003 |
QUOTE(Pai @ Mar 24 2009, 09:19 AM) This I know, but you honestly think that this con job can last forever? Pai,Its these thoughts that will lead to the USD downfall (no offence boss). Keep on thinking/hoping like that and you'll be caught holding the baby when the music finally stops Malaysia will fall way before this happen... Are you PREPARED?? <<Its these thoughts that will lead to the USD downfall (no offence boss).>> <<Keep on thinking/hoping like that and you'll be caught holding the baby when the music finally stops USD downfall will not affect me anyhow. So, why does it matters to me?? You are STILL tied up in YOUR thinking to a SINGLE country. A person's WEALTH should not be DEPENDENT on ANY single country in the world. Putting ALL your eggs in ONE basket is not very smart. Dreamer |
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Mar 24 2009, 10:07 AM
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Staff
25,802 posts Joined: Jan 2003 From: Penang |
QUOTE(Pai @ Mar 24 2009, 09:19 AM) This I know, but you honestly think that this con job can last forever? As long as the world system, military and financial system remain as what current situation, this will last until we passed away. Its these thoughts that will lead to the USD downfall (no offence boss). Keep on thinking/hoping like that and you'll be caught holding the baby when the music finally stops |
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Mar 24 2009, 01:31 PM
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Senior Member
3,318 posts Joined: Dec 2004 From: 1Malaysia |
QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Mar 24 2009, 10:03 AM) I beg to differ as USD downfall will impact anyone who's earning in USD, have reserves in USD and investing in USD denominated invesments Added on March 24, 2009, 1:38 pm QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 24 2009, 10:07 AM) As long as the world system, military and financial system remain as what current situation, this will last until we passed away. thats the issue here.............will things stay the same over the next 10 years? I don think so This post has been edited by Pai: Mar 24 2009, 01:38 PM |
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Mar 24 2009, 02:36 PM
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Junior Member
338 posts Joined: Aug 2006 |
Prop in good locations, would have given or still giving good returns, and let's lump this into the total costs, you'd have in total paid less for a certain property. If you noticed, in some cases some of the properties are still doing well even when times are bad. Just take a look at TTDI (not the ShahAlam one k!), or even DHeights. Of course there are still many good examples.
Now what determine the property price? Supply and demand, just as i any other investment. You may think it's market sentiment, companies' fundamentals etc. but at the end of the day it boilds down to how many ppl are chasing the same thing, and how motivated the sellers or buyers are. When everyone is panic now, remember every dog has its day, and some days are better or worse than others. But in properties, you can get a smaller downswing before it swings back up, compared to the rollercoaster stock markets. So if I may advice, when you buy is important, but for sure not the most important thing. Look at the return, look at the potential, look at your risk profile, look at what you want out of investment. You can get good stuff in EVERY market condition. Prop investment is for the long haul (flip if you want of cours), so don't treat this like the equity market where you monitor every day the performance. Heart attack arr...the same reason why I'm not suited for stock market... |
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Mar 24 2009, 06:16 PM
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Senior Member
3,318 posts Joined: Dec 2004 From: 1Malaysia |
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Mar 24 2009, 06:22 PM
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Senior Member
753 posts Joined: Dec 2008 |
QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Mar 24 2009, 10:03 AM) A person's WEALTH should not be DEPENDENT on ANY single country in the world. Putting ALL your eggs in ONE basket is not very smart. Dreamer I view diversification as "di-worse-sification". I don't put my egges in many baskets. Safer, but the return isn't too smart either. I put all my eggs in ONE BASKET - and watch them like a HAWK. Maybe, I'm not very smart - but IMHO - that's the way to do it - if u r serious about building some material wealth..... If not, di-worse-sify away then. Sorry - there are many other details to this, but that's the basic principle. |
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Mar 24 2009, 06:55 PM
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003 |
QUOTE(Pai @ Mar 24 2009, 01:31 PM) I beg to differ as USD downfall will impact anyone who's earning in USD, have reserves in USD and investing in USD denominated invesments Pai,You are hitting a mental block here. You are STILL thinking in ALL eggs in a same basket mentality. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=VFWIX I owned this mutual fund. It invested on 2000 largest companies outside of USA. It is denominated in USD. So, what happened if USD went down?? Those companies are outside of USA. Their earning is NOT in USD. When I collected the dividend, the earning are exchanged into USD. When USD went down, the earning went up. I have earnining in USD, non-USD, reserve in USD and non-USD. Many of my investment are USD denominated but like VFWIX because they are in US A/C but their earning is NOT in USD. A person has to diversified across the whole world to preserve their wealth. A person should not be dependent on any SINGLE country. Dreamer Added on March 24, 2009, 7:03 pm QUOTE(meejawa @ Mar 24 2009, 02:36 PM) meejawa,If people has NO INCOME, where is the DEMAND for property?? That is MY question. The income level is going down in a rapid rate. QUOTE(Phoeni_142 @ Mar 24 2009, 06:22 PM) Well, boss - if that's the case - I'm not very smart then. Phoeni_142,I view diversification as "di-worse-sification". I don't put my egges in many baskets. Safer, but the return isn't too smart either. I put all my eggs in ONE BASKET - and watch them like a HAWK. Maybe, I'm not very smart - but IMHO - that's the way to do it - if u r serious about building some material wealth..... If not, di-worse-sify away then. Sorry - there are many other details to this, but that's the basic principle. You are NOT in a wealth preservation phase of your life. I am. Return is NOT as important as safety. This tell me how much money you have too. Dreamer This post has been edited by dreamer101: Mar 24 2009, 07:03 PM |
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Mar 24 2009, 07:36 PM
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Senior Member
3,318 posts Joined: Dec 2004 From: 1Malaysia |
QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Mar 24 2009, 06:55 PM) Pai, You are hitting a mental block here. You are STILL thinking in ALL eggs in a same basket mentality. http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=VFWIX I owned this mutual fund. It invested on 2000 largest companies outside of USA. It is denominated in USD. So, what happened if USD went down?? Those companies are outside of USA. Their earning is NOT in USD. When I collected the dividend, the earning are exchanged into USD. When USD went down, the earning went up. I have earnining in USD, non-USD, reserve in USD and non-USD. Many of my investment are USD denominated but like VFWIX because they are in US A/C but their earning is NOT in USD. A person has to diversified across the whole world to preserve their wealth. A person should not be dependent on any SINGLE country. Dreamer Anyway, thanks for providing us with a fantastic example on how diversifying rarely works in either growth or capital preservation mode |
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Mar 24 2009, 07:45 PM
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Senior Member
753 posts Joined: Dec 2008 |
QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Mar 24 2009, 06:55 PM) Phoeni_142, Chief, I'm pretty sure that 20 years from now - i'll still be having ONE BASKET. You are NOT in a wealth preservation phase of your life. I am. Return is NOT as important as safety. This tell me how much money you have too. Dreamer By the way - this principle applies all the way to the grave. Don't nit pick pls. I am aware that u should have some cash buffers etc etc. I don't want to debate fancy arse asset allocation and efficient frontier garbage with you. Let me put it this way. If I have 8 properties now, I will have 88 properties when I reach 50. Still ONE BASKET. Personally, I think that di-worse-sification is way too over-rated and passe. Don't be too presumptious on how much u think I have. Well, I only have RM 2,000 as my net worth. How pathetic, huh? This post has been edited by Phoeni_142: Mar 24 2009, 07:48 PM |
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Mar 25 2009, 03:32 AM
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Elite
15,855 posts Joined: Jan 2003 |
QUOTE(Pai @ Mar 24 2009, 07:36 PM) chief, your diversification sample above have lost over 45% of its value since inception in just 2 years Pai,Anyway, thanks for providing us with a fantastic example on how diversifying rarely works in either growth or capital preservation mode You CHOOSE not to listen carefully. QUOTE(Phoeni_142 @ Mar 24 2009, 07:45 PM) Chief, I'm pretty sure that 20 years from now - i'll still be having ONE BASKET. Phoeni_142,By the way - this principle applies all the way to the grave. Don't nit pick pls. I am aware that u should have some cash buffers etc etc. I don't want to debate fancy arse asset allocation and efficient frontier garbage with you. Let me put it this way. If I have 8 properties now, I will have 88 properties when I reach 50. Still ONE BASKET. Personally, I think that di-worse-sification is way too over-rated and passe. Don't be too presumptious on how much u think I have. Well, I only have RM 2,000 as my net worth. How pathetic, huh? That is YOUR SYSTEM. It is YOUR choice. It is NOT suitable for me. Now, it is UP to you to make it works. <<Let me put it this way. If I have 8 properties now, I will have 88 properties when I reach 50. Still ONE BASKET. Personally, I think that di-worse-sification is way too over-rated and passe. >> Your choice. With your associated risk and reward. If and when you reach that level, you WILL KNOW whether you still think the same. As per my observation so far, nobody behave the SAME as before and after they reach that level. <<Don't be too presumptious on how much u think I have. Well, I only have RM 2,000 as my net worth. How pathetic, huh?>> LOL. I know what I know. And, I know how to verify what I know. Dreamer |
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Mar 25 2009, 09:46 AM
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Junior Member
338 posts Joined: Aug 2006 |
QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Mar 24 2009, 06:55 PM) Added on March 24, 2009, 7:03 pm meejawa, If people has NO INCOME, where is the DEMAND for property?? That is MY question. The income level is going down in a rapid rate. Read my points and make a better conclusion. What I've been saying is this: 1. US economy - caused by subprime => affects everyone there as jobs are axed everywhere, and housing is a need 2. In Malaysia, we get the coupling effect (but in foreign debt, manufacturing, financial not even close to US' level) 3. So in Malaysia, those who get retrenched first will be in these or closely related sectors. 4. For those who get retrenched, what is their equity profile? Some in cash, some in stocks, some in properties. 5. For those in properties (as in own stay), what category of props are affected, ie sudden spike of supply like you mentioned? 6. Are these the target group for property investors? For me, NO. Even for others who are, then wouldn't it be a golden opportunity to buy? 7. The demand and supply usually not come from the same group of ppl. Eg, I would buy a 500k prop to be rented out if the return is good, but I'd never stay in it. Just like I'd buy a 100k apt to be rented out to student. On the diversification thingy, the same goes for dollar cost averaging, to be is total bunk. Yes I too CHOOSE to not diversify in the way you do. I don't have the numbers that you're holding, but I'd think if one's fall is helped by other's rise (US fall "compensated" by Asia's rise or vice versa), at the end of the day you get more or less the same return, albeit capital has a higher chance of getting preserved. And this is in good times. When times are bad like now, the whole portfolio may trend downwards for a while. I now compare what's happening to property investment in ONE country, ie our beloved Keris-C4-Malaysia. If I were to compare what I get in stock market, or to look at return in commodities/equities worldwide, I'm still way ahead. They say if the market lose 50% and you lose only 40%, you're actually beating themarket by 10%. Sure, if that makes you feel better. But I want ABSOLUTE return, ie better than FD, better than inflation, better than MOST equity markets. So far, well..what can I say, so the very not shabby at all good! Sure, all the eggs are in one basket, but mind you, even within the basket you can diversify You are actually also putting all your money in ONE basket, ie equity and spread it across regions/industries etc. I am putting all my money in ONE basket too, ie properties and spread it across diff target market, diff property types etc. If you agree with the last statement, then I'd say you're doing nothing different than I. peace out-meejawa |
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