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Financial Is property going to drop?, General property price discussion

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Phoeni_142
post Dec 23 2008, 11:56 PM

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excuse me.....why bother whether things are going up or down?

it's better to buy property and wait, not wait and then buy property. Just quoting some random author.

Of course I have my reasons on this, but that's a story for a different occasion.

Long story short, don't be bothered about the state of the economy when it comes to real estate. It's all just short term "noise".
Phoeni_142
post Feb 13 2009, 12:13 AM

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QUOTE(am_eniey @ Feb 12 2009, 09:06 AM)
what I'm saying is, if the price of property does not drop, so it's not quite beneficial if we buy for cash.
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er.........why is it beneficial to buy for cash?

for investments - it pays to always leverage.
Phoeni_142
post Feb 27 2009, 11:16 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearhong @ Feb 26 2009, 10:00 AM)
one may noticed even big time developers also coming out with those offers...eg.pay 5% only, interest free during construction, free spa/loan fee package...etc

i personally find that the developers are coping hard with the quiet market..

as for subsale market, i think ppl tend to wait and see if price dropping..and i think price for subsale market may be reduced to woo buyers. Before the fuel price increased last year july, the subsale market prices are pretty high where owner tend to follow "wiling seller willing buyer" concept, putting up price that they think "acceptable" for themselves NOT the market.
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Yes, indeed developers are coping hard. And it's about time they are put in this situation. They have been complacent for far too long. Some hotshot like SPSetia introduces a 5/95 concept - and our mouth is drooling. It should have been an industry norm and practice in the first place! If they don't have the proper capital strength - too bad - out they go - bankcrupt for all I care. The industry should be more darwinian and competitive.

Well, I see your point on sub-sales.....however, I actually expect sub-sales price to be flattish or slightly increasing in landed residential areas......prime areas - i think the price will actually trend upwards. In general, banks would tend to shy away from the "new to bank" market or under con market. We expect the sub-sale market to actually be more competitive as banks would want to compete in this area. Why? The quality of the collateral is good, customers in this segment may be of better credit quality, and the customers themselves may be motivated to refinance.

cheers.


Phoeni_142
post Mar 4 2009, 04:32 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearhong @ Mar 4 2009, 12:07 PM)
yes, i always believe in landed property even though it may not be first choice for property investor...

i am of the view that the prices for landed property in coming months may be stagnant rather then slight increase due to the fear of commitment by the ppl in purchasing property. In fact, sub sale cases are reducing in Banks since Jan ..

I am currently have an offer to purchase a leasehold double storey terrace house at a slight below market price but undetermine if i shud proceed for the purchase and same time keep my existing freehold single storey .... rclxub.gif


Added on March 4, 2009, 12:27 pm
hi sir, for those with cash on hand, it may be good time to grab KLCC property and keep it for few years...i believe the market will bounce back by then just like 1997.

I had frens who got dirt cheap KLCC area property back in 1997 and the return was tremendous after 2000.

if only i have d $... cry.gif
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If u look at the demographics and pyschographics of the people staying in landed prime prop's - they are in league on their own. History and time has proven that areas like TTDI and BU will not fall by quantums like 25% or more. Frankly, I do not even forsee a drop of 10% or more in those areas - at a worst case scenario.

In fact - the prices there will only be stagnant or slightly increasing. Why? The residents there have high bargaining power. They are free from any encumbrances. They mostly buy for their own stay. There are hardly, if not no motivated sellers. TTDI probably has the highest retiree composition in the country.

sub sale cases have been reducing in Banks since July last year. My point is this - subsales volume could trickle in prime landed residential areas - and the prices would still hold.

Give u one example - One DSLH which I am eying in Athinahapan 5 in TTDI is still holding at 780K. He has put the house in the market for close to 8 months now. And he has refused to budget even RM 1 on the price, despite getting serious offers from buyers. Secondly, and this is the best part - he has not bothered to rent it out. It's still very empty inside.


Phoeni_142
post Mar 5 2009, 09:21 AM

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QUOTE(gamenoob @ Mar 5 2009, 08:11 AM)
Its very low %tage, speculator have zero loan for their units. Yes, the BLR has come down and allowing a lower repayment, but if their main income is lowering beyond the blr reduction gain, they will let go eventually. Those that zero loan, may not be speculator. COuld be old money or inherited properties in no rush to sell. If one is willing to keep the house empty unrented and unsold for a full year despite a lowered selling price offered, must be either a complete ignorant fool or super rich, got nothing better to do than keeping existing properties and let it sit idle. If the offer price is not too low (breaching his/her oppty cost), they should sell it off and pour the money into other investment instrument. Although FD is the worst investment tool there is for comparison. Even selling it off cash at RM780K for that properties in TTDI, even at lousy 2.5%, that is RM19.5K a year. Assuming that they are not capital gain tax or any other cost involved further on the selling. Beside an empty house can be subjected to some cost that will seriously devalue the property especially unkempt or poorly maintained. And in 5 years, that is 100K gain! Houses in TTDI may have great holding value, but they do not gain rapidly either. Same goes for established neigborhood, they just gain slowly but steadily. As long as the gain exceed other oppty cost that the owner contend with, its unlikely to be sold.

Prime and established area may have less drops but keep your eye open, you will see some good oppty. Of course, the near completed project especially those speculated one, the developer are throwing in goodies like waived S&P, stamping, extra parking lot, etc etc. That can be a good chunk off your acquisition cost.

Got friend on property and development business, the impression and outlook from them is not pretty. They are facing a very tight credit from bank and new phases unable to be launched due all the down factors.

They seems to be expected a worsening nos from Q3 onward.
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Hi, Mr. Gamenoob.

I appreciate the diversity of your comments. I do disagree with some of your points, but I think you made good points as well.

1. I am very, very, very particular when it comes to landed. I view prop's as a "centric" core concept. The core holds the country's most mass affluent crowd. In general, areas that go further from this centric core tend to command a lower premium. If you're talking about residential prime landed properties in Selangor - the centric core to me is the Damansara area. That would include BU, DJ, DU, AD, TTDI, Mutiara D'sara, Kota D, Bukit D'sara. TTDI is not classified as D'sara per se - but is just fronting DU, so i hv put it in. Don't nit pick pls - there are areas like DPC which are doing phenomenally well. I'm talking about things in general, all things being equal.

2. IMHO - this is where the majority of the mass affluent of the country reside at. (Mass affluent individuals have avg household incomes of at least RM 10K p. mth). Don't nit pick....I didn't say super rich....I said mass affluent. They are middle to upper middle class residents, have stable and good backgrounds, good mix of white collar and entrepreneurs. They also have their fair share millionaires and retirees. Many middle class families with young children aspire to move here. These areas have zero tolerance for speculators. They do not have fancy state of the art "guarded compounds" with nice landscaping - but they are proud of their homes. They have strong resident societies. They hire their own private guards to patrol the area. They construct their own boom gates.

3. It is home to 400,000 mass affluent individuals. The core of the mass affluent is here. The most integrated commercial centers, shopping malls and businesses is here. You cannot replicate an area like this overnight - despite any fancy landscaping, freebies thrown in, or financing schemes from newer areas.

4. My friend, the power of leverage helps people like me get a phenomenal return in the areas described above - despite the "slow gain" in price. Don't want to quote the math here - too much to write.

5. Don't bang me guys. Just my own personal opinion and philosophy. As I mentioned, I'm very particular when it comes to landed. I stay away from Under Con prop's - despite freebies thrown in etc.....I will only stick to my opinion of the mass affluent core areas. I may lose out in other UC areas....but so be it. From a risk-return perspective - i'd rather be an expert in the areas above, plus it suits my investment philosophy.

cheers.

This post has been edited by Phoeni_142: Mar 5 2009, 02:11 PM
Phoeni_142
post Mar 6 2009, 06:08 PM

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every area has their share of good bargains and deals.

In general, TTDI wouldn't have many motivated sellers. The bargain deal comes once in a blue moon.

Personally, I feel that the condo's in TTDI are pricey, but they have withstood the test of time, for the past 20 years. Their gains are not very exciting, but it's stable and reliable.

I'd recommend you to look at either Kiara Green or Kiara Park if you'd prefer something low density and family orientated. The Residences is a little bit too "happening" for uncle like me.

cheers.
Phoeni_142
post Mar 8 2009, 01:21 AM

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QUOTE(meejawa @ Mar 7 2009, 09:47 PM)
Both, but more towards cashflow. It's refreshing to see that to Phoeni, the capital gain for condo is a plus/bonus, and not an expectation.

I look for new properties at good locations, which USUALLY appreciate upon completion. Location is really key, and there must be some confidence in the potential tenancy. So a factor of no-rent are put in, so when the wheel starts turning (tenancy is in), I get to enjoy both.

I view both types as a cow; capital gain is like the cow growing, but if you slaughter it you get the meat, but it's a one-off gain. My philosophy in property investment should be always for cashflow, unless there is a good opportunity to flip. So as you may have guessed it, cash flow is like milking the cow, and this is what I need in my retirement later.

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Well, I think it's refreshing to meet a person which shares the same philosophy......I suppose this school of thought is getting extinct nowadays.....

Just a couple of questions.

1. Great to know that you're into COCR and for +ve cash flow in your properties. However, also noted that u don't mind considering UC condo's. Do u think it's worth the risk? It's hard to evaluate potential COCR and tenancy rates before the buidling is complete, isn't it? Unless you're willing to take the quoted rental yields from the developer? Perhaps you could share your views here.

2. I'm just playing devil's advocate here, to determine your thought process. Don't u think it's safer to view completed properties>? After all, it's easier to get certain deals and bargain prices - u get instant equity.

3. What landed areas do you think are worth looking at, and why?

cheers bud....again, I look forward to your views.

Phoeni_142
post Mar 8 2009, 12:55 PM

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QUOTE(Pai @ Mar 8 2009, 12:28 PM)
Boss you got PM  wink.gif


Added on March 8, 2009, 12:29 pm
No specific answers, but if you must know ---> Not enough  tongue.gif


Added on March 8, 2009, 12:37 pm

Same here  wink.gif

My best investment was an undercon prop, gave me a 6 figure appreciation and above 40% COCR 1 year after CF  smile.gif
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Well, diversity is key mate.

My best investments always get me mid 5 figure or mid 6 figure instant equity at point of purchase. Plus any potential appreciation from there on is just a bonus.
Phoeni_142
post Mar 8 2009, 11:53 PM

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QUOTE(meejawa @ Mar 8 2009, 11:19 PM)
Phoeni, mind explaining what you meant by instant equity?
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Sure. Long story short - it's just a fancy way of saying that I buy undervalued.

1. My net worth or equity increases immediately at point of purchase.

2. It enables me to get a higher loan amount, provided both the vendor and I agree to put a higher figure on the S&P vs. the market value.

3. It's so much easier to get a top up from my banker.....I just got an option to top up on one of my apartments after just 4 months of initial purchase.


Phoeni_142
post Mar 9 2009, 02:13 PM

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QUOTE(meejawa @ Mar 9 2009, 10:33 AM)
Got it, exactly one of the reasons I buy UC prop smile.gif
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Not too sure about that chief.....I'm averse to UC prop's.....but if u want to have a higher degree of certainty in terms of making money when u buy - completed prop's offer u that higher degree of certainty. Too many examples, too much to type.

I don't want to list down all the reasons why my philosophy takes me away from UC prop's. I think diversity of views is pretty normal - and it wouldn't be right for me to force my views upon others.

If UC works for you......then I wish u congrats and good luck.

This post has been edited by Phoeni_142: Mar 9 2009, 02:32 PM
Phoeni_142
post Mar 10 2009, 08:42 AM

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QUOTE(Pai @ Mar 10 2009, 12:42 AM)
IMO, undercon risk can be vastly reduced or even "eliminated" via :

1. Go for reputable dev.

2. For the not so reputable ones, due a proper due diligence on the company and its capabilities to complete a project should the unthinkable happens.

wink.gif
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For point number 2 - it is a pandora's box, my friend. Let me explain.

1. Financial solvency can't be confused with execution and reputation. There's an old saying, "I'd rather get a B+ or C- in Strategy, but an A++ in Execution". Long story short, how sure are u that the "not so reputable developer can execute? What would u do when the finishing is poor? Or defects galore exists and they fix it at a snail's pace? Unless of course, u mention that this falls within your acceptable risk appetite.

2. Assuming the condo gets completed on time with no problems (I'll pray for u) - this lies my biggest phobia - the management company of the condo / apartment. I seriously hope that anyone that buys UC will do some due diligence here. The Mgmt company of the condo will make or break the condo. Care to share how due diligence is done here?


Phoeni_142
post Mar 10 2009, 08:57 AM

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QUOTE(Pai @ Mar 10 2009, 08:53 AM)
Very simple my fren, just check their existing/completed projects.  smile.gif

Plus when I say not so reputable, I dont mean newbies. Im referring to developers with less than 3 completed projects to date, not to those who r new to property development.  wink.gif
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Of course smile.gif Ah - I thought u meant newbies.

But if they have nothing under their belt? And everyone is scratching their head asking who this developer is? Would u still go for it? Or if their past projects are so obscure no one has heard of them before?


Phoeni_142
post Mar 10 2009, 09:05 AM

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QUOTE(Pai @ Mar 10 2009, 08:53 AM)
Very simple my fren, just check their existing/completed projects.  smile.gif

Plus when I say not so reputable, I dont mean newbies. Im referring to developers with less than 3 completed projects to date, not to those who r new to property development.  wink.gif
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By the way, you still have not answered my question on the mgmt company wink.gif

I'm sure you'll agree that developers and mgmt company is 2 different things.

Developers with 3 projects or not, this is still an issue, my friend.


Phoeni_142
post Mar 10 2009, 11:37 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 10 2009, 10:54 AM)
For ordinary people out there, there is no way for them to do due diligence on the company financial health especially in time like this, some developers financial situation can change dramatically in the recession time.

Previous completed project or properties can be a good benchmark how responsible and work ethic, but this doesn't mean the developers still financial sound to carry out future development.

In a recession economy, the risk of UC become higher particular for those unknown and smaller developers.

Just my 2 cents.
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Hi Mr. Cherroy,

I'm suprised that I share a similar view as you with rgds to UC prop's. I thought I was the odd one out most of the time!

Anyway, there are many divergent views - and as long as investors fully understand the risk-return relationship of their strategy - hopefully they can achieve their expected return.

How about you? I noticed that you are more engaged in the equities section of the forum? Do you invest in properties? If yes, what's your investment philosophy? If you don't mind sharing.....


Phoeni_142
post Mar 22 2009, 10:52 AM

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QUOTE(Pai @ Mar 22 2009, 09:11 AM)
ahh....he edited his post already tongue.gif I've seen sign of slowdowns..... but we have yet to reach 97/98 recession levels smile.gif

anyway wodenus, in your opinion, when do u think we will bottom out?
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D@mn.....look's like I missed the action.

What was his original post, and what's the source of controversy? tongue.gif
Phoeni_142
post Mar 23 2009, 11:40 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Mar 23 2009, 10:47 AM)
meejawa,

<<1) How many actually spend the increase on properties?>>

The pay increase is sustaining the domestic consumption for a while so that LOCAL economy is growing a bit to compensate for reduction in export.

<<Having RCECap in place already almost guarantee their existing monthly mortgage paid.>>

Which is guaranteed by the government.

<< who will be the target group offered VSS/get retrenched >>

Which I had told you.  Now, EVERYTHING is sustained by government's expenditure and bail out.  There will be a POINT when it is NO LONGER sustainable.  At that point, GLC and Government will have VSS.  Then, the property market will melt down in Klang Valley.

How long do you think this CAN continue??

Dreamer
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That's an interesting theory u just pointed out. May I disagree on a few points?

1. I won't argue with you whether the govt will VSS the govt servants or not. I can tell you many reasons why this won't happen - but won't bother right now - let's just put it this way - I don't think the govt will retrench 1.4 million govt servants in this country....by the way, I'm not pro-govt......just stating the obvious. Don't nit pick pls. There are many ways the govt could toy around with to prevent the vss from happening - from tweaking monetary policy, to manipulating money supply......of course, there will be repercussions....However, this is not the issue here. I'm saying that the vss won't happen.

2. You don't understand the property market in KV very well, do you? I can tell you now - if vss starts among the govt sector - prime prop's in the KV won't be affected at all. I betcha you wanna know why.....I'll keep quiet for now as I want u to counter me with your points first

cheers bud.

This post has been edited by Phoeni_142: Mar 23 2009, 11:44 PM
Phoeni_142
post Mar 24 2009, 12:08 AM

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QUOTE(arsenal @ Mar 23 2009, 11:57 PM)
Bought 400k cash house yesterday....biggrin.gif....my third house at age of 24....biggrin.gif
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well done!

1. I hope u didn't pay cash for it - that would have been a tragedy!

2. I hope u are not bleeding too much - at a 90% loan - you're bleeding cash every month - as your rent won't cover the installment. If you're telling me that your rent covers the installment - i'd be very interested to know which area - as I would have bought a few prop's there myself.
Phoeni_142
post Mar 24 2009, 12:17 AM

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QUOTE(arsenal @ Mar 24 2009, 12:10 AM)
hahahaha....two house bought cash....another one got loan..The only area can cover loan is in Sandakan.....smile.gif
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hahaha - nice comeback.

An East Malaysian?

Well that's interesting stuff - One day must go over there and check out the scene.

what's the avg price of a DSLH and SSLH in Sandakan? I presume u did not pay cash for 400K at the age of 24.

which means - that your installment is approx 1,700 per month if u take a loan of 360K. You mean the rents in Sandakan are so high? That's even higher rent than my place in TTDI! Something doesn't sound right - or am I understanding your post wrongly?

This post has been edited by Phoeni_142: Mar 24 2009, 12:21 AM
Phoeni_142
post Mar 24 2009, 06:22 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Mar 24 2009, 10:03 AM)


A person's WEALTH should not be DEPENDENT on ANY single country in the world.  Putting ALL your eggs in ONE basket is not very smart.

Dreamer
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Well, boss - if that's the case - I'm not very smart then.

I view diversification as "di-worse-sification". I don't put my egges in many baskets. Safer, but the return isn't too smart either.

I put all my eggs in ONE BASKET - and watch them like a HAWK. Maybe, I'm not very smart - but IMHO - that's the way to do it - if u r serious about building some material wealth.....

If not, di-worse-sify away then.

Sorry - there are many other details to this, but that's the basic principle.




Phoeni_142
post Mar 24 2009, 07:45 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Mar 24 2009, 06:55 PM)
Phoeni_142,

You are NOT in a wealth preservation phase of your life.  I am.  Return is NOT as important as safety.

This tell me how much money you have too.

Dreamer
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Chief, I'm pretty sure that 20 years from now - i'll still be having ONE BASKET.

By the way - this principle applies all the way to the grave. Don't nit pick pls. I am aware that u should have some cash buffers etc etc. I don't want to debate fancy arse asset allocation and efficient frontier garbage with you.

Let me put it this way. If I have 8 properties now, I will have 88 properties when I reach 50. Still ONE BASKET. Personally, I think that di-worse-sification is way too over-rated and passe.

Don't be too presumptious on how much u think I have. Well, I only have RM 2,000 as my net worth. How pathetic, huh?

This post has been edited by Phoeni_142: Mar 24 2009, 07:48 PM

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