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 Forex Trading Corver V3, How's Your Pips Lately? ^_^

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billytong
post Sep 5 2008, 11:07 AM

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QUOTE(AdamG1981 @ Sep 5 2008, 10:58 AM)
Will we see 1.72 tonight for GBP?
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U have to see how the Fed lie about the Job numbers. They are too good at telling lies. But if they tell the truth, I am not surprise we will see a red NFP. Yes USD does smells good, but a country that lost more jobs than the rest of the world? Still think Fall totally to USD? No way. I am Short EU with caution.

Previous few months u hear about more bank employees layoff, more big insitution layoff yet can dare to print green NFP and then put unemployment % higher. Mix Data. Higher unemployment with better NFP? come on which one is true?
billytong
post Sep 5 2008, 12:47 PM

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QUOTE(AdamG1981 @ Sep 5 2008, 11:15 AM)
The more i think about it, the more i think that US FEDs going to cut IR first. Yet, you see euro and pounds rapidly declining. Why? That's because UK and Euro Zone are now experiencing the effects of US subprime crisis. US first got into the mess, and by right, US should get out of the mess sooner than the rest of the world. Hence, the dollar rallies to that concept.

We all know the data is all manipulated. Headline inflation few months ago was too low to be believable even. But the ADP numbers and jobless claims already informed the market that the today's NFP won't look good at all. Upon released, the EU and GBP should spike but will later retreat to new lows.

Why i say so ? Simple, with all the bullish news for oil (speculation that OPEC is cutting supply soon), and yet oil prices are still trying to climb up to positive territory. All the OECD and emerging markets PMI had been disappointing and it comes down to supply and demand, ECONOMICS 101. The oil and commodities traders know this very well and are not willing to push oil any higher.

The forex speculators know this very well, they are shorting EU and GBP after relief rallies.

Added on September 5, 2008, 11:18 am
Yes, same.
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This is the reason why I looking for a reshort on the Red NFP. The market will react on the NFP and send the euro higher than later on they reallize the problem the EUrozone has, they will short and hammer the euro again.

In fact I am looking to short ahead of EURozone data. the data should bring some small bearish to Euro than the NFP will make it back up, then u short again. Thats my plan today unless the Fundamentals data are all lies.

If u remember how FED lying about the inflation CPI number while they are @ cutting IR cycle and at the same time while the oil was surging going up last year. Then u know that this NFP could be a lie also, if NFP is a low and the unemployment is lying the numbers, I might short on the spot.

This post has been edited by billytong: Sep 5 2008, 12:49 PM
billytong
post Sep 5 2008, 01:24 PM

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4310 short Streamyx lag me to 06 >_>. nvm

Next resistant would be 4345-50, then 60.
billytong
post Sep 5 2008, 01:47 PM

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QUOTE(AdamG1981 @ Sep 5 2008, 01:44 PM)
24/5 baby! smile.gif Trade till you drop!
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This time the Euro worth as much as tissue paper. No more USD tissue paper.
billytong
post Sep 5 2008, 02:21 PM

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QUOTE(AdamG1981 @ Sep 5 2008, 01:58 PM)
Billy, what are the chances that NFP might be alittle positive than what market expects?
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NFP will be negative. AKA below 0K. tongue.gif Positive NFP will be a market Chaos and disaster.

If FED lie the public and give a marked up NFP number that is less negative than the market expected.

Trichet can hang himself because Euro will get Rampage by USD. Bernanke the dumb Central banker will be having fun with playing chess with tears dropping from his eyes that can fill a cup.

This post has been edited by billytong: Sep 5 2008, 02:23 PM
billytong
post Sep 5 2008, 02:39 PM

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QUOTE(AdamG1981 @ Sep 5 2008, 02:32 PM)
I think it's going to be less than -75,000, they are forecasting. Why? It's because oil has come down alot and this somewhat allows smaller business to retain its employees. IF oil remained at high 140s, we will probably see a bigger loss in NFP.

Overall, i think its a positive NFP report; less than 75,000 economists are predicting.
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yes but not too less negative like -10- 20K.

These are the numbers I do not believe.

Again, to make euro Bull, we need NFP to print more negative than -75K, may -80 to 90K and have a bad employment rate of 6%. Other than that, i sticking to short Euro.
billytong
post Sep 5 2008, 04:48 PM

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Well thats the good short @ 4310 n 4306.
Out with profit 320pips

Holding 06 into NFP.

This post has been edited by billytong: Sep 5 2008, 04:49 PM
billytong
post Sep 5 2008, 05:01 PM

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QUOTE(kelvin_tan @ Sep 5 2008, 04:55 PM)
320 pips?it went down that much ? >< i'm in office n my office connection can't even connect to forex lol
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it is 4 mini lots = 4USD per pip meaning about 80pips drop.
billytong
post Sep 5 2008, 05:08 PM

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Tonight NFP will have a big effect on xxx/Jpy pairs. Alive (up) or death (down) depend on NFP.

very Red NFP will probably crash the Dow Jones = xxx/jpy pairs down.
billytong
post Sep 5 2008, 05:30 PM

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QUOTE(dr2k3 @ Sep 5 2008, 05:19 PM)
looking from my chart i think UJ will be going down

Euro n GBP pair i duno.....those 2 keep stay at bottom...hardly any retracement at all so hard to analyst
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it is NFP day today, people are holding out to see what NFP do. Very Red NFP could easily spoil the bear run on these 2 pairs.
billytong
post Sep 5 2008, 08:42 PM

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remember what I keep saying a few post ago the NFP spells the Nasty thing about USA?

Here is what it is -84 + a nice 6.1% unemployment. and that could kill a lot of dollar bull strength. But I am not calling for euro bull yet.
billytong
post Sep 5 2008, 08:59 PM

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As much as I wish to short here but the Asian could do the diff if they see the NFP result Monday.
billytong
post Sep 5 2008, 09:17 PM

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QUOTE(AdamG1981 @ Sep 5 2008, 09:04 PM)
Well, the US FED will most likely cut IR now. Poor employment numbers, slowing growth.

And yet euro can't manage to stage a decent rally....Hm...wink.gif
*

We still have a couple of hours b4 closing and Monday morning if the Asian see this RED NFP I cant imaging what they will do.

I am still bearish on euro but Will the USD so suck that it wont look good as it is b4? currency is about +/- so USD is not +++ as b4 now, probably it is ++ now.

As for FED IR, I think it will hold until 2009. There is no reason for Fed to cut here. If FED cut USD will become tissue paper again tongue.gif

This post has been edited by billytong: Sep 5 2008, 09:18 PM
billytong
post Sep 6 2008, 02:27 PM

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QUOTE(AdamG1981 @ Sep 5 2008, 10:01 PM)
But euro to become toilet paper? Of course tissue paper better than toilet paper right???

Honestly, i think the FOREX market is taking into account that US economic will recover first. In the long run, we'll still looking into fundamentals of the economy.

I think ECB is smart in a sense that they are not propping up a stronger euro. Trichet only said the world wants a stronger dollar.
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Yes Adam, USD is suck but it is not as suck as Euro hence Eur/Usd down trend. The euro hit to the point as a top I Called many hours b4 NFP. Thus I shorted EU @ 4343 and will be holding it for while and see what next week will do.

I am well aware of what that Trichet said. He has gave up his hawkish statement which is why i am bearish to Euro. As bearish as Euro can be but we wont see a Rapid fall as last month anymore. the Euro is approching the 1.3x, that is where USD was b4 Subprime Crisis. When Euro reach there I probably start thinking about changing my bear bias to Neutral. I think the fair value of euro should be around 1.32-1.36

As for what u said the Strong USD will hurt USA, I think there is a plus and minus on this. First, we see a Strong USD is bad for USA recovery. Second Strong USD has help USD to fight against inflation, with oil down, USD up, I think the inflation in USA will be somewhat a lot cooler than b4. But the Strong USD will definitely hurt the USD. I think u will see more USA red report this month.

This post has been edited by billytong: Sep 6 2008, 02:28 PM
billytong
post Sep 6 2008, 06:23 PM

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It is the USD strengthening up, just check all the USD pairs then u know.

For for GBP, it is the GBP weakening + the USD strengthening, this is why u see GU drop almost 3.5K pips from top. How to check? Check EUR/GBP and u see how weak a GBP is compared to EUR.
billytong
post Sep 6 2008, 07:48 PM

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Physically, Forex is good. Because I am Physically lazy by nature(not mentally) and prefer to do things my own way without being rely on third person. It much harder to cooperate with people 100% compared to u do things ur own @ ur own pace.

As for getting rich? believe me u dont need to aim that one as ur first goal. Because by aiming big u probably going riskier than u can handle which at the end u could end up zero.

By aiming to earn enough income to live quite "ok" everyday is a pretty easy goal. For ex, like earning RM 5K-10K. Archive this that only think big.

This post has been edited by billytong: Sep 6 2008, 07:57 PM
billytong
post Sep 7 2008, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(kelvin_tan @ Sep 7 2008, 12:41 PM)
actually adam do u have an aim when u trade ? (eg +1% of ur total account a day? )
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u dont aim those target, what happen u cant make it on that day? u lose 1% of ur acc that day and u soo desperate to get back 2% so u can keep ur daily goal?

IMO, % of ROI is not ur first concern. it is protecting ur capital first, getting good consistent income than only ROI
billytong
post Sep 8 2008, 09:54 AM

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Asian Market Bull, a reaction on USA NFP as I said Last Friday. However this bull will be short live, we still have to see how bad the housing report do and the retail sales will be red also.

This week is USD week. So the risk is USD, not EUR.

As for as I concern, Top side should be EU4410,4445.

This post has been edited by billytong: Sep 8 2008, 09:56 AM
billytong
post Sep 8 2008, 11:32 AM

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U check the Asian Stock first. biggrin.gif
billytong
post Sep 8 2008, 01:08 PM

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QUOTE(low yat 82 @ Sep 8 2008, 11:41 AM)
bcoz of this?
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Part of it, yes. but Have to see this week housing will be green or not. Whether or not the US gov want to lie the market out then it is good. At least this prove their action true. Again those 2 giants are back by US Gov now, it is like MAS, Proton back by our gov. I guess it is a good sign.

QUOTE(AskDS @ Sep 8 2008, 12:10 PM)
I think you are on track. It has failed to get pass the resistance level @ 1.4420. If it fail one more time, I'll short this pair.
*

Thx but I miss by 15 pips. sad.gif

This post has been edited by billytong: Sep 8 2008, 01:14 PM
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