Maybe tomorrow can reach 6.80.

Touch wood, touch wood, tomorrow RM7.20.

This post has been edited by Soulsareworthless: Apr 29 2009, 11:50 PM

Maybe can reach 7.20 because DJ up today.

Sensing it'll be a good day for Tenaga today.

Yup, it has touched 7.30 and it is 7.25 as of 11.37a.m. Congrats!

Just called my broker to sell at RM7.30.

Can belanja makan

Now sell queue of 3300+ at RM7.30, only 700+ buyers matching the price, let's see how it goes, market opens in 12 minutes.

You get to sell at your tp ?

Yup, called my broker before market opened, order was confirmed about 30 minutes later. Quite a good investment, made RM400 for holding on to Tenaga for only 2 weeks.

haha! Not bad! Better than 5% Malaysian bond!

Long time no people post on this, today financial report showed better profit but some from foreign exchange gain...

http://cwyeoh-stock.blogspot.com/

So today is the day Hefner discover V-iagra?

Forex gains accounts for 51.4% of its third quarter net profit. TNB has huge foreign debts. When MYR appreciates, the whole debt would be smaller in MYR terms. But TNB is not paying off the whole debt but only the current portion of the debt which is due. That means about half of its third quarter profits are paper profits.
However,.....operating profits decline by 31.5% compared to the 2nd quarter (reported in The Edge daily today)

Demand of electricity is increasing, it would be a good choice to hold long term.

But due to Ringgit is depreciating, coal price is hiking, and the recovery of global economy slows down, it would not BE a good choice to hold short term.

RM is actually appreciating since 2010.
That's why TNB is able to register hefty paper profit from its foreign currency loan.

As long as RM is having strength against USD, it is a positive for TNB. As USD is always the major currency of foreign loan taken up by most company.

TNB could be not a good choice to hold mainly due to:
1. Increase in electricity tariff is both detrimental to real economy as well as political consideration aka the best interest for the company is a negative effect on economy, and political interest.

Demand surely is increasing over the time but it doesn't mean must translate into better profit in the future, while stock price/valuation is always based on profitability, not about how much the revenue/sales.

Ringgit is start depreciating since May 2010, in other words, Ringgit will depreciating in the 2nd half year. This would be detrimental to TNB.

However, 1% increase in demand should increase TNB's earning by about 3-4%.

Increasing in demand doesnt mean must gain better profit, i agree 50%, i know we should take into account many factors like coal and gas price, and government's policy. despite of policy, coal price is volatile over the time. Due to the China increase its consumption of coal ( China accounts for almost half of world's coking coal consumption ), cause the hiking of the price of coal. But, this would be short term effect.

Thus, demand will increase( as we know malaysia is under recovering), and price of coal will be decreasing as well. We could hold it as long term.

Yes, demand is only has one way to go aka up only, but for fuel price, coal price issue, and infrastructure cost associated to meet the demand, we will never know or sure.

If thing is so simple predictable, we won't have people loss money in investment.

Just look back when oil price hit USD140, if one said oil price will drop back to USD 60, one will be seen as making some stupid comment.
It could be the same now, as well, if one said inflation is a threat in current weak/fragile economy, one is being seen as making nonsense comment as well. As currently, a handful of analyst, economists even Fed are worrying about deflation.

Don't get me wrong, I am not saying who is right or wrong about economy issue, just we never can assure.

Who know, there will be new legislation on worldwide coal usage to reduce carbon emmission, which indirectly increase the cost of producing electricity.
Or new legislation, open up the sector and bring in more IPPs whom can supply directly and compete with TNB.

This we will never can assure.

But if TNB is running the most efficiently then we can rougly assure it will register good profit and long term future is somehow quite safe.

So far, TNB is not showing good long term profit to investors even hold it for 10+ years, despite the electricity demand has increase 2x since decade ago.
So increase in demand even for sure, doesn't mean it is good for long term holding.


This post has been edited by cherroy: Jul 18 2010, 04:41 PM

Yea, you are right, increase in demand doesnt mean will definitely increase in profit.

All my points i mentioned was my prediction, there are too many factors have to think over in this market.no 100% 1 la. I know it is not as simple as i thought. I cannot just ignore those potential circumstances.

however, i still think it is wisely to hold as long term, as increase in demand, and reducing in coal price in future.

Tenaga now is 9.25. It is also giving bonus issure 4 for 1.

Is this a good buy?