Banking stock is boring as they do not require much capex. So they would usually distribute up to 70% of their income to shareholders. Since there is not much growth story in the banking industry, expect the price to be stagnant.
Plus with the entry of so many disruptors now, it caused more competition in the financing field. Margins will have to be cut, more and more sophisticated investments coming up forcing banks to increase their cost of loan.
We should be lucky that the price is still holding up despite all these "bad" news. Pray that the price stays the same (while we continue receive above 6% DY). Any further deterioration in the stock price will just force us to keep topping up.

Yup, thank you for concurring with my views bro. You provided an extended explanation of what I have in mind. Couldn't have agreed more
I wouldn't mind too if I could keep getting 6% yield (or possibly higher yield if I could lower down my average cost)

Yes, technology will change the way we do things, we will keep evolving until a time when bank is just a place where we store our money safely (with very low or maybe no interest at all - take the case of Japan for example) for liquidity and emergency purposes only. All types of loans, stocks, investments, gold savings, foreign currency exchanges and many others might just turn to technology.
But until that happens, we still have enough time to reap enough profits from banks, and for people like Cherroy and I, we are contend with the yield that Maybank is providing us at the moment. I don't expect so highly on capital appreciation.

Speaking of "C U Latte" cafe, yes I do patronise it once in awhile for business discussions as it is a very quiet and comfy place where we can talk without a lot of distractions, and most importantly it is just 5 mins away from my office and 10 mins from my home. Specialty coffee wise, it is just OK, nothing to shout about (I still prefer Jamaica Blue than C U Latte lol). All I can say is that specialty coffee is not their forte. They would still be better off sticking with the usual Kopi O

I beg to differ on the bold point. We have not seen a full blown worldwide recession yes, and we have another 1 year to go before the Americans can get rid of the baboon that speaks TOO much. So we have to bear with the worldwide domino effect he will eventually cause. When 2 giants collide, shockwaves will definitely be felt. I would prefer to keep cash now and wait it out. No rush to buy in now unless you have too much cash lol.

No definitely I'm not going to be completely out of the market because I am getting above average yield from my portfolio. Just got to stick with it when shit hits the fan.
I am now trying very hard to conserve my cash (hand itchy and very tempted with Maybank right now). I am getting my bullets ready for any big adjustment in the market.
Just telling Xing that we are not totally out of the woods yet.

Wait for next year first, at least after the US elections lol. We want the sampah of a man to be out of office first. He talks too much and hurting the global economy. We need to avert this "crisis" first

I wouldn't mind to save up my bullets first though. After all there is no rush. I already have a good amount of recurring dividend income from my current portfolio. Now I can afford to buy some time while waiting for market weakness. There are already signs of market weakness, just need some idiot to burst it.

#bigfatuglymouth

Depends on your own appetite. If you feel that you are satisfied with the current yield, then masuklah.
You can collect bit by bit, don't too rush. Now buy a bit and look at the situation before buying a bit some more.
With the current situation, the price won't go anywhere far for the mean time.

Can start to top up if price touch 8.80 (which is very possible with the current situation).
Been waiting eagerly for way too long

The price shouldn't go that low as it has fallen from an average of around 9.60-ish within one year, and most of it can be attributed to the fallout of Hyflux corporate bond. While most of the bad news have been priced in, we should see Maybank's share price stabilising. It is unlikely to see such a solid financial company fall more than 10% in such a short period of time in the absence of an economic crisis or recession. I believe the bottom support is around 8.80, with a yield of around 6.2%.

What is your average cost for Maybank? If there is not much difference from 8.80 then I suggest not to buy as 70% of your holdings in a single stock is already over-exposure by any standard. At most, one should only hold as much as 25% of any stock compared to the whole portfolio.

It's going to be hard to reach 8.70 as all of the impairment has already been priced in. Hyflux is now on the binge of a potential revival by Utico, and if a deal comes through, then Maybank's risk exposure in Hyflux could be reduced or completely eliminated. We are all eagerly waiting for the good news.

I am of the view that Maybank would only hit 8.70 if there is a weakening sign of our economy, or if our interest rate is dropped further.

Damn, I didn't call my remisier to help me queue at 8.80! The support at 8.82 and 8.83 was quite strong in the morning. Stayed at KPJ for the whole day for follow up with doctor after lunch, so missed the 8.80 intraday

Hope tomorrow got chance to buy in some at 8.80, this time I will queue from morning, no more waiting

Anyone of you got it at 8.80 today?

Market expectation for a higher rate cut in US, but if lower then it will be less exciting for the market.
A lower rate cut is also a sign that the economy is growing well, so lesser risk of a recession.

That is a bit far fetched la. There must be a supporting argument to prove the weakness of the share. At the moment there is no clear signs of such a huge weakness in it's price. 8.80-ish is the support level for now in my humble opinion. If BNM cut rate by Q3, then we might see the price going down to about 8.65-ish, but it won't stay there for long as low interest rate will spur lending. The loss in margin can easily be offset by increase lending activity as Maybank is still one of the top choice for Malaysians when it comes to borrowing.

Yes, been with the same remisier since I started trading 20 years ago. And because I am always out of office for meetings and outstation, I cannot keep tracking. So a Whatsapp message comes in handy, when the deal is done he will revert back to me.

Even if BNM cut rates also, it will not cause such a big selldown of the price. At most it might touch 8.65, chance of it hitting 8.50 is quite remote unless trade war risk worsens to a full-scale war which will in turn affect global market.

If you have additional bullets to top up if the price continues to weaken, then you may proceed to average down. If you have less cash, then better wait and see for a bigger drop before buying.

Edit: B/Q at 8.80 is strong at 11k lots, big buying support at 8.80. This looks like a good sign that it is bottoming out for now.



This post has been edited by Jordy: Jul 24 2019, 11:36 AM

There you go. CPI released as per your request

And as we can see, the growth figure looks good, inflation is kept under control with no immediate worry of a recession or pressure to cut interest rate anytime soon.



Source: https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...rated-year-ago/

This post has been edited by Jordy: Jul 24 2019, 01:08 PM

Not going all in yet. Queued 3k units at 8.80 since 10am. Hopefully my queue would be matched in the afternoon session

Buying support at 8.80 is too strong, guess it would be quite difficult for my order to get matched. Sellers are not letting go lol.

Huh? Where got OPR cutting season wor? Choiiii. There is no pressure for BNM to cut interest rate, why you want them to cut some more?

US fed is expected to cut rates not because they need to, because of some stupid big mouth keep asserting pressure only. Inflation figure is good in US, there is low risk of recession. Fed was reluctant to cut rates until just recently due to that stupid fella.

Malaysia doesn't have to follow US, we have our own sovereignty lol. Why care about that stupid big mouth?

This post has been edited by Jordy: Jul 24 2019, 01:24 PM

All 3k units matched at 8.80. So now lets ride with it.

Inflation will increase in months to come once the petrol subsidy mechanism is introduced. In my humble opinion, BNM would wait for the CPI report post introduction of petrol subsidy mechanism before deciding if the interest rate should be cut down further. We need to have a balance and that is what BNM should aim for, so we shall wait few months for the petrol subsidy mechanism to kick in first.

It's ok, 8.78 is not that much of a difference. If it ever goes down to 8.65 then I purchase some more.

Don't worry about short term price movements, just ride with it. It is a blue chip, so if you can get a good yield and at a good value, then it's the right decision. Small turbulence in the price is always expected, we just try to avoid the perfect storm only if possible.

I believe it is the common fear that BNM would be cutting interest rates further down. All banks were affected. We'll just have to wait for BNM's announcement to calm the market.

Any decisions out from the FOMC meeting will not affect of our economy as we are independent. If there is any movement in our stock market due to their decisions, it will just be a short-term reaction to the movement in NYSE. While generally traders could accept a small cut in interest rate, but a bigger than expected cut would send jitters into the financial markets. Again, any interest rate movement in US will not affect the profitability of our local banks in a big way. We are more concerned about our own OPR which will have direct effect on the margin of our banks.

BNM doesn't necessarily have to follow Fed's moves. We have our own domestic consumption rate, household debt levels, unemployment rates and inflationary pressure, etc as our own economic markers. But as what Cherroy has mentioned above, liquidity in the market could increase due to the lowered cost of borrowing. This could have a little pressure on our margin.

It is not cost effective to do DCA for stocks due to the high cost of investment, unless you can DCA with a big amount every month. We have the minimum brokerage fee to consider, so lets say you DCA monthly with RM500, even a RM10 minimum brokerage fee of RM10 will cost you 2% upfront on your investment. So one will need a higher DCA amount monthly to reduce the cost of investment.

True, long term wise Maybank is still a safe play, and its yield at current price is one of the highest. If it could maintain its payout rate as the year before, then the price could see a rebound from current level due to increased confidence. Management wise, I still prefer Maybank.