Don't understand the rationale of buying Maybank or even Public Bank atm.

Come...try hard sell me...

Lol. Why you so liddis one. This was a simple question mah. Why need to define it as attack?

My comments on reits so bad meh? All I did was point out that one can actually lose money in reits if one simply buy the yield. Was I wrong or was I simply simply kutuk the reits sector?

Ps.. If not OK to continue... Lol... I siam sikit lo.

How?

...

I removed my comments and taruh to the Trader section laaa....

That way ...the attack factor .... gone lo......








This post has been edited by Boon3: Oct 6 2019, 09:45 AM

you are creating a mania here ....

You bought in 2008, 3 lots.

Now you still have 3 lots?

... so what happened to the rights issue in 2009?

ps.. the forum individual search function is not too bad.

Try search RIGHTS ...

it was kinda a big issue for many in 2009.

I dunno.

If it was me, I would had known about it.

so ... so ..... sohhh .....

This is Maybank dividend paid out from fy 2009. Missing one year, fy 2008



Tried adding those numbers out. My calculator might be rosak and koyak big time but the total dividends calculated is 577.5 sen only.

malaysiastock.biz data so off?

Your entry is 25.9K? So avg cost is 8.662k per lot. You bought in 2008. When ah? Mind sharing?

Also tell us your experience as a long term investor.

Do you mind sharing? (since you so big heart, share your cost plus total dividends. Strange you forgot about that massive rights issue in 2009. )

Tq

When openly declared you made so much from the stock market, this is called boasting.
And there will be people like me, who would have a look see if the numbers are remotely accurate.
You claimed dividend total to RM22,805.25.
That's like to the exact dollar and sen.
So accurate? And how did you come up with then sen, given the history from Maybank dividend history.
And all that from 3 lots.

My look see, instinctively tells me your figures are so not accurate.

And it has proven so.

https://www.maybank.com/en/investor-relatio...nd-history.page?

That's from Maybank itself. Since you bought in March 2008, that means your exact total dividend since March 2008 should have been 597.50 sen per lot. or 17925.00 for 3 lots. A difference of 4880.25 from your earlier calculation.

Now let me share this.

Buying in March 2008, meant you bought just before the market crash of 2008. One of the big market crashes worldwide. Such a big big event, and you missed it?

Let me put it to perspective...



That was a chart posted in 2009. It's taken from a popular blogger, Alex. http://nexttrade.blogspot.com/2009/03/mayb...g-term-buy.html

You bought at 8.60. A year later, Maybank traded as low as a 3.70. That was a massive drop. (And you bought the stock during the month when Maybank started falling due to BII. https://www.thestar.com.my/business/busines...s-hit-5year-low )

And then there was the huge hoo ha about its RIGHTS issue, which was even discussed in this forum thread.

2 massive events. The big crash, in which Maybank stock price fell like crazy. The cash call. Surely, you would have gotten mail informing you about the RIGHTS issue.

So hard to believe what you had posted, really. ( lol. you can even post i3 link here. You a regular there ar? )

When the trumpet blow so loud, sure got ppl come see what the noise mah....

There wasn't anything worth trading since end 2006 during that time. Nothing worth trading at all.

So come 2008, there were few things that stirred the market.

1. The collapse of Maybank in 2008, on MARCH 2008. (ahem ... yalor... March 2008 )

I can remember fairly well but if I make any mistake..aiyoh...pls do correct me.

Sometime during March 2008, Maybank started falling sharply from 9+.
All because it announced acquisition of BII. (can search the net for info lo)
The deal was priced 4.8x book value.
Insanely high.

Market of course did not like the deal at all. They sold the stock down!

2. There was even a clause in that deal, that said if Maybank walked away from the deal, it would lose a 480million 'deposit' on the deal. (Again this pissed everyone off.)

Overpay like crazy and if Maybank backs of the deal, they would lose 480 million (on hindsight 480 million would have been a good loss!) What were the directors thinking when they sign that deal?

3. Stock market worldwide collapses by Oct 2008.

And Maybank stock price continued to tank.

4. And then the 2 billion ++ impairment loss from this BII acquisition!!!! (BII deal was worth 8 billion)

Impairment was definitely gonna be needed when Maybank overpaid like that and to add salt to the wound, because of the stock market crash, BII shares traded sharply lower than the acquisition price! Double whammy.

5. And to piss the shareholders even more, Maybank announced its RIGHTS issue in 2009!!!!

A cash call for the minority shareholders mainly because Maybank crazy decision to buy BII.



Therefore, it was not a surprise to see Maybank trade below 4.

Looking back at it, of course it would say that investors should have bought Maybank at 4 or below 4. But was it worth the risk when the head honchos of Maybank doesn't seem to have a clue on what they were doing. 2008. Even before the crash in Oct, things weren't rosy. How could the directors embark on such a risky decision to buy BII at such an inflated price?

And then of course, if one was gonna talk about the banking sector, one could have gotten PBBank instead and one would have been rewarded really well. It was simply a much no brainer, better alternative.

Dude, you should not 100% support share buybacks. Risks are aplenty. Unscrupulous shareholders exists and abuses whatever they can lay their fingers on to soley enrich themselves.

Have you not seen share buybacks done to push the share higher?
And to top it off, we read much later that a major shareholder had been disposing shares?

Have you not seen share buybacks done to support a falling share? Share was falling simply because the profits have turned into losses? Also, despite the genuine reason, some owners thinks they are smarter than the market. However, market and business economics are never kind and they can turn cruelty for the worse. And when that happens, whatever share buyback done will only have worsen the company's financial. Yup, the genuine management decision could simply be as wrong as they they could be right.

Have share buybacks done to support the share price at a certain price? Had the shares fallen much lower, the owners would had faced margin call?

Anyway, ppl make plenty assumptions in the market. Considering the risks is much more important. Like Maybank and its dividend yield. The risk is that dividends payout is never cast in stone. The current couple of months have been disastrous for many business. And with banks forcing to allow loan moratoriums of 6 months, can Maybank and other banks still able to give out as much dividends as previously? Isn't this the risk?

Now of course, if one is solely focused on the market and the pricing, the risk assessment could be wrong as the market discounts ahead. The current market could have already discounted the possible bad news....

LOL. Back to square one.

My opinion still remains. At 8.50, I questioned the wisdom of buying because I don't see the meat.

Now? At 7 plus, I am still questioning where is the meat...

Like I said, one should not 100% support share buybacks.

That's my main point, in which I gave reasons why so.

Everything has risk. Nothing is risk free. You for one should understand this.

Let me share my recent postings on Maybank, which was an example of back data testing on 'investment thoeries'...

One of the theory, which I am very sure of, is the DIVIDEND MAGIC theory.

I am always not impressed with those promoting theories that on dividends. Hold it many, many years and one should be able to see the wonders of dividends performing its bomoh tricks on your money....

The very simple point is the share price is never constant.
It is traded.
And with share price getting adjusted after it gives out dividend, how good could it get?

Furthermore, once if dividend trend is on a decline, the share price tends to fall too....

So how safe is this dividend theory?

I always feel that dividend should never be the main reason one purchase a stock....
would I buy a cow just for the milk?
or should I buy a cow for its milk and its meat?

Back to Maybank....

Based on the current/trailing dividends of 0.64 sen (Maybank dividend is actually INCREASING, ok!!) and a price of 7.67, we are talking of a yield of 8.34%.

Now before you fly to your computer and press buy Maybank shares... perhaps you should do a 5 year study and see what kind of return one is looking at, yes?




The first chart, I have DISABLED all price adjustments. That is the chart shows the price as it is during a particular time a few years back. On the chart I have written some pricing. Those pricing should be roughly the low of the year. See in this exercise, I gave the benefit of a doubt that the super kampung bomoh dividend raja is able to spot out the best (lowest) price each year to invest in Maybank.

Yes, one call it cheating but for simplicity sake, assume la that ONE CAN BUY MAYBANK AT THE LOWEST PRICE EACH YEAR.

The second one is dividend paid out. Screenshot taken from that other website. (I assume it should be accurate). Ok so far?

**** please verify numbers and calculations. I might fark up the numbers.... **

Current price used = 7.67

EXERCISE NO. 1

Buy Maybank in 2015 at the lowest possible price and hold until now!

Purchase Aug 2015. Price RM8.10

Dividend received since = 0.54 + 0.52 + 0.55 + 0.57 + 0.64 = 2.82

Current price = 7.67
Purchase price = 8.10

*Current holding loss = 0.43 (I despise the phrase paper loss. LOL!)

Total dividend received = 2.82
Total gain since buying = 2.82 - 0.43 = 2.39

CAGR gain for 5 years = 5.31%


==========================================================================

EXERCISE NO. 2

Purchase Oct 2016. Price 7.70

Dividend received since = 0.32 + 0.55 + 0.57 + 0.64 = 2.08

Current price = 7.67
Purchase price = 7.70

* Current holding loss = 0.03

Total dividend received = 2.08
Total gain since buying = 2.08 - 0.03 = 2.05

CAGR gain for 4 years = 6.08%


==========================================================================

EXERCISE NO. 3

Purchase Nov 2017. Price 9.20

Dividend received since = 0.32 + 0.57 + 0.64 = 1.53

Current price = 7.67
Purchase price = 9.20

Oh oh!!!!!

* Current holding loss = 7.67 - 9.20 = 1.53

Total dividend since buying = 1.53

NO Gain/LOSS since buying in 2017

==========================================================================

EXERCISE NO. 4

Purchase June 2018. Price 8.70 *assume price bought is b4 dividend went ex on June 2018*

Dividend received since = 0.32 + 0.57 + 0.64 = 1.53

Current price = 7.67
Purchase price = 8.70


* Current holding loss = 7.67 - 8.70 = 1.03

Total dividend since buying = 0.50

CAGR gain for 2 years = 2.83%

==========================================================================

EXERCISE NO.5

Purchase Oct 2019. Price 8.37

Dividend received since = 0.64

Current price = 7.70
Purchase price = 8.37

Current holding loss = 7.67 - 8.37 = 0.67

Total dividend since buying = 0.64

Losing 0.03 since 2019! .......

==========================================================================

Review so far...

This is clearly a not sure win stock.....
Even if win .... the winning is not really impressive, yes?


Remember ... I chose the cheapest price each calendar year to buy.
What if I didn't get the cheapest price?

Wouldn't that have yielded a terrible result?

*****

now what if I roll back and do two more years?



EXERCISE NO. 1

Buy Maybank in 2014 at the lowest possible price and hold until now!

Purchase Dec 2014. Price RM8.24

Dividend received since = 0.33 + 0.54 + 0.52 + 0.55 + 0.57 + 0.64 = 3.15

Current price = 7.70.
Purchase price = 8.24

*Current holding loss = 0.54

Total dividend received = 3.15
Total gain since buying = 3.15 - 0.54 = 2.61

CAGR gain for 6 years = 4.68%



=========================================================================

EXERCISE NO. 2

Buy Maybank in 2013 at the lowest possible price and hold until now!

Purchase Jan 2013. Price RM8.90

Dividend received since = 0.33 + 0.535 + 0.57 + 0.54 + 0.52 + 0.55 + 0.57 + 0.64 = 4.255

Current price = 7.70.
Purchase price = 8.90

*Current holding loss = 1.20

Total dividend received = 4.255
Total gain since buying = 4.255 - 1.20 = 3.055

CAGR gain for 7 years = 4.30%


****************

Conclusion?

And what can we deduce from this exercise?
I cheated and used the year lows as my buying price. I cherry picked my purchase price.
Consider this. In July 2013, Maybank had a high of 10.80!.
If 10.80 was the buying price, the current loss would have been 3.10.
Which would have reduced the total gains to a mere 1.075...
which would mean the CAGR gain for 7 years is only 1.65% !!!



****

How's your investment in Maybank result?

Has it been really magnificent? Super? Average? Below Average?

I only shared my back test data on buying Mayban for its dividends.

Sorry but not here to advise anyone la...

Anyway have a look on the notes I made...
Back testing data has its plus and minuses...
the plus is ... it's an eye opener on what has happened....
the minus is .... it's data BASED ON THE PAST...and where it could err is that Maybank future earnings and dividend payouts might improve.

GL

This post has been edited by Boon3: Aug 2 2020, 01:46 PM

Sorry. Maybe my writing no good.

What's the normal theory you hear about Mayban?
Buy the stock for its dividends, yes?

Take buying Maybank in 2013 at the lowest possible price and hold it today.

And try the same test on each different year. Each year, buy at the lowest price possible and hold it to now.

Now surely this would have yielded a very good result, yes?

Look at the end results....

Sorry. I realised I did not answer your question properly. Was watching some movie earlier...

Are you try exit/sell away now at 7.67 that is why you lost in 7yrs or 1.65% gain only?

I was writing on the basis of investing in Mayban for its dividends. Now to test the theory, the furthest point back I used for reference is 2013. 7 years should be a fair experiment. Now the price I chose was based on the lowest price recorded in the year. So for year 2013, the lowest price was 8.90, recorded on Jan 2013.

So assuming I invested 1,000 shares in Maybank in 2013, at the lowest price, 8.90, I asked myself, how much dividends would I have received?
My answer was 4.255
So for an investment of 8900, I would have received 4,255 in dividends.
But based on the current share price of 7.67 (I have to base it versus what the stock is trading now and not in the future, yes?) , the share would be incurring a paper loss of 1.23)

Which means the total current gain is only 4.255 - 1.23 = 3.025

So if one bought Maybank at the lowest price in 2013, at 8.90 and held it till today, one is looking at a 'total current gain' of 3.025.

since everything in investing is based on CAGR, this represents a CAGR gain of only 4.3% for 7 years.

Is this acceptable? Compare the gain vs FD rate or EPF rate....

which it's ok but it's not really a market beating kind of yield, yes?

So I work it out for every subsequent year. Each year, assuming I buy at the lowest price of the year.... and again, as the result show, it's not really terror, yes?

so far ok?

What happen if you sell at next yrs if the price is 8.5 or 9?

Well... anything can happen. Of course if next year can sell at 8.50 or 9, then everything is handsome lo.

But what if next year, the price only 7?

Just simply saying la... next year ma... price can be even 10, 11 or 6 or 5.... who knows....

Let say I buy 20lots now at 7.5, sell it 3yrs later or which come 1st at 9.5, already earn me of 40k.

Average div 0.56/yrs for 3yrs earn me 33.6k.

That is 73.6k total.

Well, that's your game plan. Which sounds nice. Cos you have a target and you know what you are aiming for.
But have to say that every time the stock gives a dividend, the stock price is 'price adjusted' according to the dividend paid.
Sometimes the stock goes up, despite giving the dividend but sometimes it doesn't.
You just got to acknowledge that it can go either way....

But you enter mainly for div?

Yes, this is an experiment, back testing the outcome if one invest for the dividend. Is the dividend play such power that it can yield superior result?
Sadly, from what I see, the result is macam average only....

If I want to continue with div, look for it dip back to >8.5 (probably no more <8 catergory price). And look for sell at 10.5 maybe?

Different strategy yield higher?

Not understanding.

What you mean looking for it to dip >8.5?
When the stock dips, it means it fall, isn't it?


ok?

not suggesting anything for Maybank.
If you think it is good, then good luck to you.
May your game plan works out good for you.

Average Down ...

Obviously, if you had purchased a lousy stock and if you attempt to average down, you die for sure.

Ok, how about the case of buying at the wrong price for a good company? Can average down save the bad poor investment?

I will choose PBBank as an example.

1. I won't use the top most price. Just 25.00 will do.
Now for obvious reason, assume I bought PBBank at 25.00.
Now since this is a good 'fundamentally strong' company, I decided to average down la.
PBBank pays dividends also...
surely I won't die cow cow yes?

So the ORIGINAL SIN IS BUY 1000 SHARES OF pbbANK AT 25.00

2. The strategy employed.
Now obviously, since this test is based on back test data, I have to cheat a bit...
The strategy is to buy ONLY 1,000 shares to average down.

Let's be realistic here.
it's 25,000 a pop for the original investment.
any other average down purchases, increases my capital involvement exponentially...
and I cannot cheat myself by saying I have UNLIMITED capital where I can average down forever and ever until I register a gain or recover all my initial losses

(this way, also, I cannot cheat by say i averaged down at the lowest point with more shares, yes?)

so every low of the stock cycle movement, I purchase 1,000 shares to average down.

Fair?


Ok, here we go... (* I yet to count atm honestly... just writing as I go)

The chart and the average points...



ORIGINAL SIN 25,000
May 2019 22,480
Oct 2019 19,080
Dec 2019 18,800
Feb 2020 17,700
Mar 2020 12,600
May 2020 15,200
Jun 2020 16,200

total purchases = 8,000 shares
total invested = 147,060

* time to reflect here ..

from 1,000 shares => 8,000 shares
from 25,000 => 147,060

What did the average down strategy just did?
The investment grew exponentially!!!



Average cost = 147,080 / 8 = 18.38
PBBank reference price at today's opening is 17.00
at market value, these 8,000 shares is now worth 136,000

Current 'paper' loss = 11,080 (dun like the term 'paper loss' A loss is a loss. )



Now .... how much can the dividends help. (A bit of work here cos need to check the ex date and see which shares qualified for which dividends)

PBBANK dividend of 0.37 went ex on March 2019. Original Sin of 1,000 shares qualified for it. (0.37x1=0.37)
PBBANk next dividend of 0.33 went ex on 29 Aug 2019 Only 2,000 shares qualified for it. (0.33x2 = 0.66)
PBBANK next dividend of 0.40 went ex on 12 March 2020. Only 6,000 shares qualified for it. (0.40x6 = 2.40)

Total dividends received = 3.43

So paper loss = 11,080
dividend received = 3430

Therefore ... current loss = rm7,650
dump in extra 100k plus to average down and now still lose money!!

** after thoughts?

this example clearly showed that average down did not help at all (despite PBBank being a top fundamentally company)
Average down 8 times, meant increasing our investment 8 times...
we need to address this issue, yes?
we not into some fantasy game where we can average down and average down...
we have $$$ limit la

we can buy a good stock at a bad price.
average down might not help us recover our initial mistake!


Back to Maybank....

I am not an advisor...
All I am suggesting is that one should address the issue if averaging down is a good idea or not...
there is financial limitations involved... Maybank costs at least 7000 per 1,000 shares.... average down 8 times... you are dumping in another 56,000 or so...
is it worth it?

meanwhile... also address the issue of opportunity cost...
what if this is not the best move for one's money? better chance elsewhere?

just give all these a thought...