ahem...

This is a TEST la.
A test to see if how good the theory of Dividend Magic.

Look at the test results.... where the ASSUMED purchases all made at lowest price possible each year ...


and yes, the result showed that if one had purchased Maybank at the lowest price, one is NOT IN THE LOSS.
My calculations showed that.

Did you see that? No?



But it showed some things... these are actual data....

1. YES NO LOSS but the results is not outstanding at all.
2. A CAGR of around 4% since 2013, is hardly impressive at all
3. What if purchased at the wrong prices? (remember the test data is based on the assumption of able to buy at lowest price each year!)


well... I shared what I tested... it's up to you to interpret it and it's also ok if you totally ignore it.

Would you mind at all if I do a small experiment?

Okay, assume I buy 1,000 shares of Maybank now at 7.50.
Strategy is buy in anticipation of dividends.
Once ex-date, I sell.

For benefit of myself, as I am interested to know if whether I can profit from such a strategy in the future, and hopefully can benefit others in this thread, ya.

let's wait and see how this experiment, goes ya ....

Just an experiment (or as they call it PAPER TRADE) in which I will just mark down in my 555 book.

Like you said, buy now and sell after ex-date.

So I have recorded in 555 book, 1000 shares at 7.50.

* based on recent years , div went ex on Oct/Nov

** expected dividend for the coming interim dividend is between 23 to 25 sen

** Wah. You reckon can get 900 profit?

Paper trade is extremely good for testing theories... in this case, buying before the EX-date and hoping to profit from the dividend + whatever share movement gain.

And yeah... ex date is Sep. you are correct as I lost focus. I looked at payment date.

Did you know that if you bought BAT in 2015 for its dividends and held it till today....you would have lost money big time?

This post has been edited by Boon3: Aug 5 2020, 01:46 PM

Good to know that you are aware of the situation in BAT.

sorry to others for going off topic ....

Some comments

... 7.20 is kinda just about the year low leh .... which coincided right after the 'mco crash/lows' ....



Now using the same current scenario ...
in which, right now, Maybank has not reported its QR report YET, and it should probably report by end Aug.

hence, for a FAIR comparison (and not be accused of cherry picking the lower prices) perhaps, it's best that you use the month before Maybnk reported its quarterly report on 27 Feb, which will be early Feb 2020 or end Jan 2020 price. In either case, your buy price should be at least 8.30.

It's hindsight already .....


so if you use 8.30 as purchase price... then buying the stock before it announces its dividend did not work ...

When a stock gives out dividend, the share price is adjusted lower to reflect the dividend paid.

So if it gives out 20 sen dividend, after the stock goes ex dividend, the share price is adjusted 20 sen lower.

Err... you looking at hindsight already lo.... yes?

Ok, that was the past...


now it's 7.50.

7500 a pop of 1,000 shares ....

(is our experiment based on unlimited capital meh? )

okay say first ...

IF .... maybank report for the coming quarter is poor ... and Maybank falls .... err.... touch wood first la.... dowan to simply jinx any1 ....

1. please state how many times one can average down.
2. but for simplicity sake... just post here and say average down...
3. how long after ex to 'sell' ? ( by one week? )


ok bo?





*** oops typo ****




This post has been edited by Boon3: Aug 5 2020, 02:51 PM

Aikks.... 20 sen is a simply tembak number la

typo ..... unlimited profit = unlimited capital



The thing I don't like average down .....

1. You can actually buy a 'good' share but a BAD PRICE ....
2. when I buy a share and the price goes down, it means only 1 thing. I made a BAD INITIAL INVESTMENT purchase, buying more means I am buying more of my initial mistake.
3. the more I average down, the more the mistake is amplified.
eg. if my initial purchase is 7,500. Averaging down 5 times, means my initial bad investment would have exploded exponentially 5 times to at least 30k ++
4. which comes to the point of 'is our capital unlimited'? Maybank wo. 7500 per 1000 shares wo. How many shares can I really buy?
5. In gambling terms. I am betting more on my poor first bet.

but that's just me.... I don't like it. I think it hurts more averaging down.
Anyway, think about what I am saying...
just sharing my opinion only (certainly not advising)

Eh?

But your point this morning was .....



I am confused liao

Well.... i am basing my paper trade on your short term theory lo

shall I say one week after going ex?
and averaging down not more than 2 times?

So I start with 1,000 shares at 7.50.
And I can only add another 2,000 shares

ok?

Got to keep it respectable and believable, yes?

Well? Agree or not?

you must got tons of capital to buy like this.

Sorry that turned out bad....

GL to your investment...

Ah ... but you bought it during the drop and not before the drop.

err... talking about the issue of average down ..... not saying Maybank is a bad stock or what not....

Don't understand. LOL!

Here....

This one you say one....

Well, I want to know if I can get crazy profit if I follow what you said.


So I paper trade 1,000 shares at 7.50.
See if it works or not.

On the issue of averaging down....
cannot average down more than 2 times.

Selling period. Not more than one week after Maybank goes ex.


Now can understand?

If cannot understand.

it's ok.
no big deal
no worries

this is for my own personal learning.
I will keep my paper trade as stated and see if can get crazy profit as you stated.

Oh yeah... but you only said you bought during the fall. You owned Maybank shares before the fall?

The big point I want to share is average down would require substantially much more capital.

I did do a recent example based on PBBank ... post #2525
Do give/share your opinion.