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 MayBank shareholder Group

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cherroy
post Mar 16 2020, 11:54 AM

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QUOTE(RigerZ @ Mar 15 2020, 05:41 PM)
Question for sifus (am still learning the trade),

if bank stocks are falling so badly because of the possible rate cuts, how are they supposed to recover back in the long term? Rates increase?
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Economy growth back on track worldwide.

For near term, it will be ugly scene across, as the economy activities will be shrinking across due to fear of virus spread, travel ban etc.


cherroy
post Mar 16 2020, 01:59 PM

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QUOTE(privatequity @ Mar 16 2020, 12:14 PM)
Hi Cherroy, since the financial crisis seems like happening as many countries' capital markets went into bear territory, which would be the sector are you looking at as a best buy? Banking sector like Maybank, PBB?

Once in a blue moon for these bluechips to fall this hard. however, those companies with growth potential are still the ones in the semicon industry such as Penta, Vitrox etc.

Please share your view with us. I've already read all the posts since 2008 in this topic, and realised you were commenting in 2008 - on Maybank as well. I think your views and opinions can be good insights - for those who never seen a big financial crash like now.

THanks!
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Banking sector can be a good sector to bet on recovery.
But frankly speaking, even though Maybank share price is tempting at current level, the magnitude of drop is way lesser than others. Probably supported by its better yield.

I don't want to OT too much, but please view stocks individually at current bear market. As not everyone is the same even though they are in the same sector.

You need to dig deep, how a stock can weather through this storm before have clear sky again.

A good stock won't forever drop, stock market won't forever in bear territory. (May be this statement should be posted a few weeks later).
cherroy
post Mar 16 2020, 03:34 PM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Mar 16 2020, 03:22 PM)
You are right. Tenaga is a utility which is almost a Monopoly.  Thus, a pretty good buy
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OT, with oil price plunging, fuel price should be cheap across, from gas to coal, which is a plus point of power generation.

Lockdown, travel ban, people still needs to use electricity.
cherroy
post Mar 16 2020, 04:40 PM

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QUOTE(Syie9^_^ @ Mar 16 2020, 04:27 PM)
1997; it went to RM10; now it is RM7..  hmm.gif

since 2008; we never see it went to RM10 hmm.gif
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It was near to RM11, just a few years ago.

Just from the chart, you won't see it, as most chart use adjusted price for dividend given out.
cherroy
post Apr 8 2020, 02:27 PM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Apr 8 2020, 12:24 PM)
Suppose you bought a share at RM10 then it fell to RM5.
Your capital loss is 50%.
On ex-date, the price will be RM4 so nothing changes. Your 10% dividend yield is just in your mind, ignoring the additional 10% capital loss.
Dividends should only be paid out if the management cannot obtain a return higher than the cost of capital.
For me, these companies are not worth investing because the future dividends will likely remain constant or fall in future.
Let's not forget g=ROE x (1-payout ratio)
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Nothing beat cash dividend in hand.

Yes, on ex-date, price will readjust downwards, but if the company business is intact, and future give the same dividend, it is likelyhood it may rise back up to RM5 or even higher if economy situation become normal or grow again.

Those hold Maybank or any other high dividend stocks for 10-12 years, all their capital have been recouped back as dividend in the form of cash.
You bought RM8, after 12 years or so, all the RM8 capital is recouped as cash, now whatever share price is your gain.
Even now drop back to Rm0.00 due to crisis, no loss is made.

Also, those RM8.00 cash recouped enable one to invest in whatever stocks or instrument that can diversify the portfolio

vs
xyz stock that bought at RM8.00 that never give dividend, but due to crisis, share price goes to RM0.00, all capital RM8.00 loss.

Company has billion or trillion cash, minority shareholders won't have a taste on it without dividend.
Company can also give millions of directors fee and lucrative compensation package to management while give zero dividend to minority shareholders.

Public listed company is about sharing profit made, which is the reason of minority want to buy public listed shares.
And dividend is the form of profit sharing.

Buying for dividend is long term investing strategy, it is not for short term view that about buying before ex-date or after ex-date.

cherroy
post Apr 8 2020, 02:32 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Apr 8 2020, 02:27 PM)
No!! The price goes down because it is adjusted for dividend. The price goes down by RM 0.39 if they distribute RM0.39 as dividend.
Ppl can choose to buy/sell but that's not the main reason the price goes down on Ex-date.

Selling off on the 10th = still entitled for dividends.
Yes, but unless the price goes up again, you won't profit. There's no katak jumping in the streets.
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Whether adjust the opening price or not, actually it does not matter.

SGX doesn't adopt price adjustment, but market will automatically adjust itself.
Today 8.00 cum dividend 40 cents.
Then next day ex-div time, buyer mostly may Q at 7.60 only, and likehood to start trade at 7.60.

Market will adjust itself whether there is opening price adjustment or not.

Then how the share price 7.60 up or down forwards, it depends on market movement.
cherroy
post Apr 8 2020, 03:15 PM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Apr 8 2020, 02:46 PM)
Billions or trillions of cash reinvested/retained in the company equate to higher book value.
If the share price plunges but the fundamentals remain intact, it means the stock is undervalued and by all means a buy.

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Book value, remains as in the book, not cash in our pocket.
In recent crisis or market crash, it highlights further how important is cash in hand, not value in book.

See previously how many company were trading at way discount to NTA or NAV, but ended being privatised at discount to its NTA.
I already have a few stocks that being privatised previously, that below its NTA.

NTA, NAV is meaningless to minority to shareholders, it only works for controlling stake holders.

Last time, I also believe about buying undervalued, undervalued NTA stocks etc.
But after decades of investing experience, this doesn't work well and underperformed compared to those give generous sustainable dividend.
Look at those high price stock or good performance stocks, they have one common factor, aka give good sustainable dividend based on their growth profit. They always have good dividend policy aka % profit always being distributed as dividend, and high discipline or good management in term of cashflow to sustain those dividend.

An undervalued stock can remain undervalued forever, due to stringy management that doesn't reward their shareholders (may be except Berkshire which is niche or out of ordinary).

Book value of a share price for minority shareholder, is just like you have a house worth on paper Rm100 million, but you do not have Rm100 million cash in hand, nor you can sell or cash it RM100 million, it remains as Rm100 million in your book.
You can only cash it based on market share price is, which is not RM100 million.

While those Rm100 million cash in a company, management can just make a bad investment decision, then Rm100 million can varnish easily as well.

For minority shareholder, we have only 2 way to make money, aka dividend received or selling stock at stock market price.

Those billions or trillions in book value is meaningless until it is cashout and being distributed to shareholders, otherwise bookvalue remains in cabinet looks good only.
Just like during kids time, parent tell me to keep my saved money in joint saving passbook, but I can only see the passbook figure grew, but I never have the passbook nor can access it. laugh.gif


cherroy
post Apr 8 2020, 05:20 PM

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QUOTE(moosset @ Apr 8 2020, 04:40 PM)
actually, how does the share buyback work?
If a company declares share buyback, the share price will go up, but how does it benefit shareholders if you don't sell your shares?

and for how long will the price stay at that price during a share buyback?
It could be worse! The savings could be recycled as angpao money to you every year. tongue.gif
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Personally, I do not agree share buyback.

1. Share buyback is detrimental to company cash or cashflow nor rewarding to shareholders.
Instead spent millions to buyback own shares to prop up the price, the cash may be better off being distributed as cash dividend to shareholders. When there is good dividend, share price will react upwards based on market force.
You have or better effect via dividend instead of buyback.

2. Share buyback money can go down to the drain.
ABC company buyback own company shares at Rm1.00 with 50millions cash, but share price continue to drift downwards to RM0.50. Indirectly 25 mil cash down to the drain.
While if the 50 mil being distributed as cash dividend, every shareholders got the 50 mil, instead of 25 mil loss in the air/paper loss.

Most of the time, share buyback is not a good way to prop up share price.
Often buyback only got temporarily effect to prop up share price, by then when buyback stop, (you can't forever buyback non-stop, due to regulation limitation and company cash constraint), share price likely dropping back afterwards.
You can't fight with market force. Let the market force decides the share price.

While if market knows the stock is constantly giving good sustainable dividend, then it will have a natural market force or buyer around to support the share price.
As even some retirement funds are eager to have dividend stocks, as dividend received will be registered as realised income in their account book, while holding a non-paying dividend stocks, no income will be registered, until they sell the stocks at a gain.
cherroy
post Apr 10 2020, 05:57 PM

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QUOTE(Yggdrasil @ Apr 10 2020, 10:37 AM)
Buyback is just like an investor buying from open market. It's like a company's trading account buying shares from me or you.
Buybacks are performed when the company feels its shares are undervalued.
These shares are kept as treasury shares under Equity in the Balance Sheet.

Benefits of buybacks? If the management feels they need money in future or their share is overvalued, they can sell back to the open market and get back money.
Let's say Sunway's share price is RM1.50 and the management feels it's undervalued so they purchase 1,000,000 @ RM1.50 paying RM1,500,000.
Few years later when economy improves, share price goes up to RM1.80. The management then sells 1,000,000 @ RM1.80 receiving RM1,800,000.
By doing this, Sunway gains RM300,000.

These treasury shares can also be distributed as an alternative to cash dividend. Shareholders can then sell these shares in the market if they want cash instead of shares.
This is often performed when the company wants to reward shareholders but prefers to keep liquid cash in the company.
Giving more shares can be even more rewarding to shareholders once profits increase.

Also, shares can be cancelled aka destroyed. If shares are cancelled, this means there are lesser Number of Shares Outstanding (NOSH) in the market.
I.e. less shares have a claim on the company making each share you hold more valuable.
For the same amount of profit, each EPS increases.
Buybacks and cash dividend are both ways of distributing cash.
Assume no taxes, cash dividend is when the management feels their share price is over/fairly valued so they distribute cash dividend.
Buybacks is when the management feels their share price is undervalued.

See above explanation about how buybacks are useful and can improve EPS.
You forgot that buybacks reduce NOSH.

A company with market capitalisation of RM100m with 100m NOSH means each share is RM1 (RM100m/100m shares).
Now if the company bought back 20m shares, NOSH is 80m.
With the same market capitalisation, each share is now worth RM1.25 (RM100m/80m shares).
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Yes,on above, I agreed fully with you theoretically.
As mentioned, just as pragmatic, or realistic cash in hand mindset, as minority shareholders, personally I do not agree with buyback. I am ok with other disagree on this, and fully respect disagreement. smile.gif

1. Company shouldn't engage is share market. Company interest is doing its core business, generate profit to shareholders, not trading shares in the market.
Whether share price is undervalued or not, let the market decided. Market is not "stupid", if a share is undervalued, many investors will snap up quickly which resulted share price has a support.
Even if the share is undervalued due to market distress, it will rise back up when economy normalise.

Yes, buyback treasury shares can be distributed as dividend in specie. But we have real example, there is a company buyback aggressively in the market, keep a lot of treasury shares which in return being distributed as dividend in specie, guess what. Those shares was bought more than 1.50, while market share price is below 1.00. If those cash paid to buyback were distributed as cash dividend, won't it much better? Extra 30% more!
A typical buyback doesn't benefit shareholders which burned the company cash while money varnish in the air.

2. Yes, treasury shares can be cancelled which in return may push up EPS, but minority shareholders get nothing as compared to cash dividend in hand. Market generally doesn't react well on this as compared to cash dividend.

I have a simple mindset of investing in listed company, aka is to get a piece of profit that company generated. If I can always get a piece of profit every year, I do not need to worry about share price, as I already have an avenue to generate a return.
As mentioned before, minority shareholders only have 2 way to make profit or return
a) through cash dividend received
b) through capital appreciation by selling share above buying price.

With cash dividend annually, I need not to rely on b).
Whatever high or low in book value, it remains in the book only.

Market force looks at real cash dividend way more than book value.
Generally, it is difficult to find a stock that has sustainable dividend stocks that its share price is trading below its NTA,
but we have lot of stocks (no dividend or non-sustainable dividend) that are trading below or way below its NTA, that speaks which way market values more.

Want to have good share price without buyback? Give sustainable generous dividend.

A profit generating company with good cash management, there is needless to keep all the profit and cash in company and totally ignoring needs to reward minority shareholders.
Initiate stage growing company, yes, may be, but company won't forever at initial stage grow, once company established well, there is a lot of way to raise capital via bonds, bank loan, if massive capital needed.

A good well managed profitable company will only see cash pile going up more and more over the years, which I see no reason why not letting minority shareholders to get a taste on it.
Cash in our hand (dividend received) is always valuable than book value (cash in the company) our invested company. Unless one is major shareholder or has controlling stake, then different story.
Book value can varnish overnight, cash doesn't.
And with recent crisis, it highlighted further the importance cash in our hand.







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