If Maybank continue to deliver poor result, how other or CIMB doing is irrelevant.

It is Maybank itself needs to show good result which eventually set the footing at what level or share price it can be.

The rumour is about BNM wants to change the Maybank director board, something to do with BII acquisition? Previously BNM did block the deal, but eventually went through.

Don't know how true it is.

Interesting to see how Maybank report card will be. They need to make significant provision on the Indonesia 'expensive' acquisition.

The main issue is not about the acquisition or expanding programme, but on why paid so much premium especially at the time, was in the middle of financial crisis which should can get more cheaper price. Even Temasek (the selling party) willing to lower the price tag so that the deal can go through. If seller eager to sell, you don't pay too much premium over it, buyer should get an upper hand in negotiation.

Money raised from the right issues won't affect profit or loss.

Just money raised could potential save some interest incurred on borrowing side.

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Added on August 25, 2009, 11:54 pmI think share price will be red (may be like 20/30 cents or more) tomorrow but won't fall of the cliff, as AS1M might go into it as well it dropped severely.

Just my wild guess.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Aug 25 2009, 11:54 PM

I also bought some at this level.

As a replacement for reit yield.

Having said that, I see potential rough sea ahead.
Waiting for average down.

If the reinvestment is not having odd lot, one of alternative is getting the reinvestment share at RM7.25 and sell off at current market price at Rm7.6x, you instantly earn extra Rm0.40 per share, compared to all cash dividend.

You use the DRIP portion of dividend to buy share at RM7.25, and sell off at RM7.65, you gain RM0.40 per share.

How much the DRIP is irrelevant how much gain per share.

Banks that have exposure to O&G generally are more and less being hit with a higher bad debt provision, including some overseas banks.

Share price may still be under pressure for sometimes until there is light in the tunnel about provision stablising aka earning figure become more stablise.

Eager to know how much is the impact of Sg Hyflux towards the next financial result.

I will wait until the Hyflux impact is known or how much provision is needed to be made.

Currently, banking stocks are like yield play.

Room for upside is limited by slow loan growth and low interest rate environment.
Banks earning improvement only can come from
1. More loan given out
2. NIM (Net interest margin) expansion.

1) Economy slow down, hence less loan needed, loan growth projected likelyhood in the region of 5% +/-. So the likelyhood of dramatically increase of profit is low.

2) NIM won't see widening as cost of fund may not cheap for banks due to slow deposit growth.

So banking stocks generally are likelyhood to be traded at range bound tightly.
As current pricing is not that expensive, some banking stocks yield can be better than FD rate.
But upside is limited due to risk of NPL and stagnant earning figure.

This is not limited to Malaysia banking stocks, but many worldwide banks across. Many banking stocks are lagging the market.

PS: I won't be complaining if the stocks price is stagnant, while getting 6% annually.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Jun 20 2019, 11:20 AM

Year end or early next year may be if economy data keep on coming in soft.

The last round of cut effect may not surfacing yet, if so fast have another round of cut, may be seen as use up "ammunition" too early.

Currently OPR is 3%, the room of cut is not a lot, you don't want to use up too early as well.

Maybank's earning has diversified into SEA region, particularly in Sg as well, it is not solely a domestic bank.
In fact a portion of profit is coming from regional bank businesses.

NIM is not solely affected by OPR as well. If loan growth figure is stagnant, while market is flushed with liquidity (due to worldwide interest rate cut, and QE), it can have an effect on NIM due to competition within.

Short term wise, it is on down trend mode, as little positive factors around, but long term wise, it is still a good yield play.

Tonight likelyhood Fed may cut rate.

Rate cut is negative to banks/finance sector, as it can erode NIM.

8.60, not 6.60.

If 6.60, rush to buy already.

Worldwide stock market are not performing well generally.

RM40 or 0.6% looks quite expensive, as it hinders investors buying in small batch, which is an important strategy when buying at downtrend time for long term play.

With smaller batch, I can buy in various price from 8.40, 8.30, 8.20, 8.10, 8.00, 7.90, 7.80
I have better chance to buy or hit the bottom, vs the other person need to buy a larger batch, eg. at 8.50, 8.00.
Not to mention, better strategy maneuver in between. Currently, it is big bear trend, need to adopt small batch buying strategy, and avoid trap in too much capital in one or two go.

Even my own remisier (he can also earn 0.6% if phone over) also advise to key in myself to save the commission charge via online order. There is no different than key in order ourself vs the remisier keying in.
Just type in price and lot, then done, quite simple only.

You buy nothing if you have crystal ball to know recession is coming for sure.
Recession - business slow - NPL rise - Bank less profit or loss.

You buy high quality bond if you know recession is coming, as this is where money can be made during recession.

At current situation, we have slowdown, not recession.
There is a big different with slowdown growth vs recession.

Loose monetary policy - low interest rate, inject more liquidity (cash) into financial system.

The risk, inflation and potential bubbling of sector (like property, stock market, bonds etc).

Normally it is not advisable using "time the market" strategy to invest in stock market especially for good stocks, like predict when the stock is bottom or top, or when recession is going to hit.

Those prediction is harder than predict 4D number, unless one has crystal ball to see it.
Boom and burst is always cyclical, so does stock market.

Until market see rate cut prospect is diminishing, banks share generally are under pressure across.

Rate cut - NIM at risk to be lower.

With loan growth expected to be at low side, earning improvement won't be significant.
Those with good quality loan asset, the better side of story is single digit earning improvement.
While risk is NPL rise eat into earning or reduction in NIM that reduce the earning.

ABMB is the classic example what market is worrying on banking stocks, big rise in NPL or provision for NPL, that affect earning result.

Short term wise, banking stocks are likely to be under pressure, due to potential NIM narrowing due to OPR cut.

But value may emerge afterwards, if there is no more cut further and GDP number become more steady.

BNM has stated the cut is pre-emptied effort to put growth into better trajectory.