If it drops 10% n bounce back to RM8.9+ then it makes no difference.. Or it might shoot past that to 10 or 11.

And at end of Aug they usually announce interim divvy.. Thts Sure Angpow.

DeuBank has been a sick bank for many years..

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jul 9 2019, 12:59 PM

U look at the company announcement on Bursa website or Maybank corporate website. Maybank pays dividend twice a year.

Yes price will drop on divvy ex-date, but if fundamentals remain usually will bounce back not too long.

Based on 10-year historical Price Earnings and Price to Book ratios, I would argue Maybank is already cheap.

Price now is like half the price of a glass of Starbucks Frapucinno.. I'm sure can afford if u want. U get to own biggest Malaysian bank n No. 4 in Asean. .

Or u want to wait for price like mamak sirap ais? 😆

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jul 12 2019, 05:04 PM

Ya economy, in particular:

1. Slow loan growth
- rakyat neck deep in hutang already. Can't borrow much more coz salary stagnate.
- PH gomen damn slow to move to pump economy with big projects. Talk cock on-stop.
- Property market slowdown
- external factors causing business uncertainty (trade war)

2 Net Interest Margin compression due to Bnm OPR cut in May. This is the spread between loan interest n deposit interest. Will need a few months to regularize, as old FD matures and replaced with lower interest FDs. Risk of another possible rate cut later this year if economy continue to be sluggish, causing another round of NIM compression.

3. Low growth of fee based income due to KLSE sad performance. Brokerage down, no big IPOs, no big sukuk issuance etc.

So not very exiting as it is...but things can turn around. If PH gomen gets their act together, if global economy stablize..etc.

Or it can get worse also.. The good thing here is that Maybank is pretty solid financial wise to sustain bad times.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jul 14 2019, 01:21 PM

Any stock u buy, u have to watch out for minimum brokerage.
Rather than 100 shares a month, maybe better 600 shares every 6 months.

Dividend last year / stock price

Maybank 2018 dividends : RM0. 57
Price: RM8.90 (lowest today morning session)

Dy: 6.4%

Of course, dividend this year is not yet known. No guarantee that it will be 57 sen.

But past 5 years their payout has always been above 50 sen with average of 55 Sen.

2018: 57 sen
2017: 55 sen
2016: 52 sen
2015: 54 sen
2014: 57 sen

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jul 15 2019, 02:26 PM

Their profits come from 70% Malaysia n 30% other Asean. The rest are insignificant.

Khazanah is not a substantial shareholder of Maybank. They hv CIMB.

PNB/ASx.. yes. Nearly 50% ownership, which is about RM50b value. N if they try to sell half of that, yes sure price go down substantially n they will hv to recognise big losses. N diversify to where RM25 billion? So not going to happen.. They are stuck with Maybank for foreseeable future.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jul 18 2019, 05:18 PM

Wah.. 8?

U use GTD order ke?

When u say 70%, I take it u mean it's 70% of your stock holdings, not 70% of your total investment portfolio (which includes cash etc)? If its the later, then I think u r overexposed to Maybank.

For me, I already hv Maybank n I don't expect to be adding anymore at least until I see the 1H results n dividend announcement (end August). There are other more exciting stocks out there. But.... If there is a big drop say below RM8.50, I might be tempted to average down.

Touched 8.80 intraday. Close@ 8.82... Maybe by nxt week see it touch 8.75 (52 weeks low) again.. 😮

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jul 23 2019, 05:28 PM

Wah still use remisier.. Haha..

Inflation is higher than past months (it was negative early in the year), but fact is YTD is still relatively low. As mentioned in the article, RAM has revised this year target to 1% inflation. A country like Malaysia's healthy level of inflation is 2-3%.

What this means is that, when u combine soft inflation with other central banks also cutting, there is a higher chance of another rate cut by Bnm in Sept or Nov.

This will compress bank margins further if it happens, which I think why bank stocks are still dropping today.

Personally, I prefer Bnm to cut rates, but I won't bet on it.

Wow... Closed at 8.76..

Technically looking bad..

Petchem, another favourite blue chip, also dropped a lot..

I also feel Maybank is just better managed.

2019 Maybank ROE target is 11% (11.4% in 2018)

2019 CIR target is 47% (47.4%in 2018).

They also hv big plans for digital.

But big? is 2Q results.. I will wait for that before jumping in further.

That will be in mid Sept..

Personally, Im not too concerned about interest rate. A one off 25 bp cut by Fed shouldn't change BNM position, coz BNM already did that earlier. So we are back to "neutral" gear. Only if Fed suprise by a 50bp cut, then hv to re-evaluate.

Im a bit more concerned with what's inside Maybank books tho.. 1Q 2019 wasn't good profit wise, due ro higher impairments. 2nd Q could be worse, and this may impact the amount of interim dividend. That's why I'm looking forward to end of this month for the results.

But investing is about looking forward, n I'm generally more confident about 2H2019 for Malaysia and Asean economy. When that gets better, Maybank should perform better.

By DCA, I assume u mean buying a fixed amount in a fixed schedule (monthly, quarterly etc), irrespective of valuations and market conditions?

Then no, I don't do that. Not for single stocks..I actually think it's dangerous. Even for blue chip stocks like Maybank.

BNM interest rate is decided at their MPC meetings, which is every 2 months. The next one is scheduled on 12 Sept.

http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=mone&pg=mone_mpc

However, even before that, there will noise, as economists try to predict what BNM will decide. The Treasury bond market will also reflect the markets view on what BNM is expected to do. Rate cut means Treasuries will go up.. Rate hike, Treasuries go down. So the Treasury market will start to move first on expectations.

Historically, BNM is not a very aggressive central bank. I think they tend to prefer stable interest rate.

Finance index down today... Maybank lucky steady at close, but hit RM8.70 intraday. Can go down below RM8. 70 on Wed?..