No, totally different issue.

OR mean you have the right to buy the offer (that's right issue + free warrant), has nothing to do with existing mothershare.

1 OR = 1 right issue + free warrant, in this case.

Just to remind,
The RM10 is the Hasil Stamp, not ordinary stamp, I have seen people go to buy RM10 ordinary stamp which is not applicable.

Out of 80K, we don't know how much will pull out after the cooling off period of 30days, we can't assume all will take up afterwards, so need to discount a bit as well.

The threat now is about YTL Communication as they said want to roll out in a big way.

Don't use ordinary post for those important stuff especially need to meet the dateline one.

At least registered the mail, or courier it.

Somemore it is festival season in Sept.

Its WA is going to fast and too near to its mothershare, only 30+ cents difference only (70+ cents for WA, while mothershare stuck between 1.0x-1.10), in this case, WA becomes less attractive and little room for upside if its mothershare doesn't move too much.

If warrant price is too near to its mothershare, it doesn't make sense to own the warrant, as you get little gearing effect from it while need to pay premium on it

So either one needs correction, be it mothershare goes up, or WA goes down.

If after 5 years, it can reach 1.67, then current your mothershare or buy the mothershare, you still earn profit out of it as same with WA, but need a bit higher capital with mothershare, not too high though only 20+ cents extra.

If after 5 years, mothershare still remain at 1.10, then you will lose a lot on WA, if you bought now or at current price.

If after 5 years, mothershare lower than 0.95, you lose everything in WA, but you just lose about 20 cents with mothershare.

Warrant give you short term leveraged, but for longer term like 5 years with warrant expiration, you will lose the premium of your warrant paid. But you need lesser initial capital.
Keep mothershare and sell warrant give you better protection on the downside but lose out the gearing effect. But in this case gearing is not much.

So it depends on individual strategy.

See too much $$ flooding in drown already?

If you have both, can analyse the situation, and make the decision best out of it one.
It easy to see out the situation.

To be exact, it is how much profit and cashflow position that dictate how Gpacket price will be.

So, the more subscribers that they can tap on, the more potential profit and cashflow will be. But no guarantee as well, as other factors can influence the profitability as welll like bandwidth cost, hardware cost etc.
I don't know where P1 get the international bandwidth from or lease from, my guess come be from TM as well, just my wild guess. Anyone has source of this info?

The important figure will come from next few Q from its financial result.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Nov 12 2009, 01:55 PM

No doubt in term of tech, Wimax or wireless has future

The major limitation of broadband business is population.

We have 23 mil population, potential customer how much? 2 million? Cannot be more than 23 mil, right, so need to discount children, lower income group (don't have luxury to own a computer), so potential broadband customers could be range from 1-3 millions only.

Unlike HP business, you can charge customers based on volume of call, broadband monthly fee is fixed so company can only derive more revenue from more subscribers.

Also, 1 person can have 2 HP number due to business and personal usage, but you won't subcribe 2 line of Wimax from the same company, right?

While customer only expect provider to lower the price only and deliver better speed, so price adjustment upwards is seem almost impossible for near term while bandwidth lease cost will only get higher, not lower.

That's why we see they are promoting strongly to get more customers by luring other existing broadband user by 'potong' advertisement, because no. of subscribers is the one dictate how much revenue willl be.

So there is some limitation on it, although it is still far from reaching it, but if other Wimax providers come into market, there will be intense competition, which is good for us as consumer but may not good for company shareholders.

In term of stock market perspective, we should always look at the profit making part.

I would say market is there for Wimax market, profitability wise still something we cannot assure or guarantee on.

Immediate focus is not the loss itself, but cashflow as well.

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Added on November 13, 2009, 10:29 amI still think it is a bit too optimistic for the 200k target within this year. (just my opinion). As some may also cancel the subscription within the cooling off period if experience with it is not good, which in lyn we have some cases on it. To be fair, we have mixed bag review/feedback on P1 service, some good, some not good, may be due to area issue or congestion which I don't know as there is not disclosure in this issue, just can know from feedback of current users.

From thestar
This post has been edited by cherroy: Nov 13 2009, 10:29 AM

Changing goal post never mind, making losses also ok for initial period, but immediate concern is the cashflow position.

As cash drain for capex is pretty fast.

Until company can deliver profit and positive cashflow, there is little way to judge whether the stock is undervalued or not.
You cannot say a stock is undervalued with company registered losses and in negative cashflow and pay no div to shareholders, right?

If said stock is undervalued if/when company already manage to realise the 200k subscribers, and make profit, the only it could justify.

Although company is making projection of 200k subscribers for breakeven and making profit, there is no guarantee it succeed to do it and cost wise does not go up.

So, it is still up to anyone guess and largely depended whether company will make profit or not and turn into positive cashflow.

One thing to mention is that do take in account of potential dilution effect with private placement and right issue + warrant for EPS/profit computation issue.

My view
Way/overly optimistic for 500,000 at the end of 2010. Streamyx on its maiden launch of streamyx takes years before reaching this figure which at that time without any broadband competition at all.

Not said not achievable, but 500K means 1/3 od BB users are using it.

First 100k and 200K will be fast to achieve but once reaching about 300k, growth rate might drop down quite fast, as those eager to have it (mostly unhappy users), already sign up, while some may happy to stay on whatever they have right now. After all, the Wimax subcription is not cheaper than other BB.

As next year, probably YTLe will launch another 'potong' campaign on its own, not to mention with potential HSBB impact, plus recent streamyx free/cheap upgrade package which tie up customer for 2 years (to prevent potong).

When I see the lastest Q result, I can only




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P1 worth 15 billion?

Even 1.5B, P1 really worth 1.5B?

How much profit P1 can generate to Gpacket currently?
or how P1 balance situation?